Delta variant: What it could mean for Covid-19 in the US - CNN
Category: News & Politics
Via: tig • 3 years ago • 47 commentsBy: Michael Nedelman and Nadia Kounang (CNN)
It just does not stop.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
A coronavirus variant first spotted in India is poised to become the dominant one in the United States, where infectious disease modelers say it could cause a "resurgence" of Covid-19 later this year.
And it may already account for 1 in every 5 infections nationwide, experts say. The Delta variant, as it's now called, has swept across the UK, all but replacing the Alpha variant first identified there late last year. "This is the most transmissible of all the variants that we've seen," Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN's Ana Cabrera Monday. "We saw what happened in the UK, where it overtook the entire nation. So I'm worried that's going to happen in the US," he said. Read More CDC now calls coronavirus Delta variant a 'variant of concern' Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told CNN last week she anticipates Delta will become "the predominant variant in the months ahead." And that could be a few weeks -- not months -- away, according to William Lee, vice president of science at Helix, a company whose Covid-19 tests have helped track a number of variants. In the two weeks leading up to June 5, CDC estimates that Delta was responsible for nearly 10% of US infections. And now, Hotez, Lee, and the nation's top infectious disease physician, Dr. Anthony Fauci, say it accounts for roughly a fifth of cases. "As of a couple of days ago, 20.6% of the isolates are Delta," Fauci said at a White House briefing Tuesday, referring to the two weeks leading up to June 19. This number has roughly doubled every two weeks, he added. "It's so transmissible that, unless your vaccination rates are high enough, you will still have outbreaks," said Lee. A more transmissible variant like Delta also raises the bar for what percent of a population has to be vaccinated "to reach this mythical herd immunity," he explained. "More worrisome is that we know that there are pockets of unvaccinated people," he added. "And so I would be worried about Delta spreading very quickly in those pockets."
Predicting the future
Infectious disease modelers are showing how a variant like Delta could make a Covid-19 comeback later this year. Faced with a more transmissible variant, "it looks like we do see a resurgence late in the summer, or in the early fall," said Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Lessler has been working with contributors from a dozen other institutions on the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub to forecast the pandemic. Delta variant will likely become dominant Covid-19 strain in US, CDC chief says The most recent model finds that a Delta-like variant that's assumed to be 60% more transmissible than Alpha, coupled with 75% of eligible Americans getting vaccinated, can result in Covid-19 bouncing back from summer lows to cause more than 3,000 deaths per week at various points during the fall and winter -- coinciding with children returning to school and weather that pushes people back indoors. That's about 1,000 more Covid-19 deaths than the US has seen over the past week, though still far below the peak of 24,000 deaths during the second week of January. But according to the model, getting 86% of eligible Americans vaccinated -- meaning, those 12 and up -- could avert more than 10,000 cumulative deaths by late November. Currently, 62.5% of Americans 12 and up have gotten at least one dose of a vaccine, according to CDC. At the current pace, the country would hit 75% in September and 86% in November. However, the pace of vaccination has slowed in recent weeks. Lessler said that Covid-19 resurgences wouldn't be experienced uniformly all over the country: "It's the states that have lower vaccination rates, and a lower projected vaccination rate, that are really driving those resurgences." At the White House briefing Tuesday, Fauci called Delta the country's "greatest threat" in its fight against the coronavirus. But it's a preventable threat, he added, and one that's unlikely to reach the level of earlier peaks. Instead, "you could see localized surges," he said. "All of that is totally and completely avoidable by getting vaccinated." Research on Delta in the UK has shown high levels of protection from two doses of the vaccines used there, with effectiveness against hospitalization exceeding 90% for both Delta and Alpha, according to Public Health England. CNN analysis: Where vaccination is up, Covid-19 cases are down Dr. David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, has also seen trends of increasing cases, hospitalizations and deaths in areas of lower vaccination. Rubin said his team is increasingly focused on hospitalizations and emergency room data to see how the pandemic plays out because, as fewer people get tested, the number of cases is becoming a less reliable marker. In areas with lower vaccination rates, they noted a slower rate of decline in hospitalizations. Rubin pointed to the state of New York, where about 52% of the population is fully vaccinated, and where the rate of new hospital admissions has been steadily declining. Meanwhile, in a state like Missouri, where just 38% are fully vaccinated, the hospitalization rate is not only higher but has shown an increasing trend since mid-May, according to CDC data. While it may feel like the country has turned a corner, Rubin warned "the pandemic hasn't ended." Polls such as the Kaiser Family Foundation's have shown that about 1 in 5 adults say they won't get vaccinated, or will only do so if required. But that number is higher among certain groups -- like Republicans, White evangelical Christians, younger age groups and people who live in rural areas.
Delta's trajectory in the US
While experts agree that Delta poses a greater threat to unvaccinated populations, it's not a foregone conclusion it will follow the exact same trajectory in the US as it did in the UK, Helix's Lee said. It's not just Delta -- other coronavirus variants worry scientists, also In a preprint that has not yet been peer-reviewed, Lee and his colleagues describe how the US outbreak has unfolded somewhat differently: In the US, Covid-19 cases caused by the Alpha variant (also known as B.1.1.7) grew to 70% in April but plateaued there -- at a much lower level than it did in the UK. It's hard to know exactly why, Lee said. It may have something to do with the diverse set of policies that could impact the spread of the virus -- including public health measures and the vaccine rollout in the US. Even so, from late April to mid-June, the Alpha variant fell from 70% to 42% of Covid-19 cases. And it's not just Delta that appears to be responsible, but also another variant of concern found in Brazil -- known as P.1 or Gamma. "We think it'll be different primarily because of the presence of Gamma in the US that never really gained a foothold in the UK," Lee said. As of early- to mid-June, both Delta and Gamma appear to account for similar proportions of cases in the US. But Delta appears to be spreading up to several times faster. There may be trouble ahead as dangerous Covid-19 variant appears to cause hospitalization spike in a Missouri city And while Gamma doesn't appear quite as transmissible, it does concern scientists for another reason: It appears less easy to neutralize with antibodies -- including those from people who have been vaccinated, those who have been previously infected, and certain monoclonal antibodies, as well. "It's not the doomsday scenario where they don't work at all, but there may be some reduced efficacy," Lee explained. And this may partly explain why Delta and Gamma appear not to spread in quite the same way in different parts of the country. Lee's preprint showed that Delta appears to be "growing faster in counties with a lower vaccination rate," using a cutoff of 28.5% fully vaccinated on May 1. Meanwhile, Gamma appears to have spread more among counties with higher vaccination rates, versus those below that cutoff.
While the research draws from the strength of Helix's county-level testing data in many states, Lee says the study's findings may not be representative of the country as a whole. But the message they carry is perhaps more universal: Given the lifting of restrictions across the US, "At the end of the day, being vaccinated is still the best -- and potentially, at this point, the only -- tool we have," Lee said.
CNN's Naomi Thomas, Jen Christensen and Virginia Langmaid contributed to this report.
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Evolution at work.
People whose bodies do not have the biological means to kill this virus serve as little laboratories for the virus to evolve into a more resistant / deadlier form.
What people have seemed to have forgotten is that the only way we beat smallpox was by everyone getting vaccinated. No chance for variants to emerge. It's like we have regressed and have turned this into a political statement, instead of a medical one.
more like natural selection. I try to look at the bright side of the delta variant, fewer anti-vaccers and conspiracy nuts will be left hanging around.
i get your point, but i have A LOT of friends that won't get the vaccine , and i've lost enough lately by other means
Trouble is, those who can get infected can serve as labs for possibly generating a new variant.
I have some really bad news. there are also millions of dangerous viruses frozen in the polar ice, then melting, and trying to make their way into the food chain. this isn't the final attack.
Our environment is hazardous to life. Always has been.
...only a matter of time.
'...those who can get infected can serve as labs for possibly generating a new variant.'
It was precisely this of which the World Socialist Web Site gave warning. It also gave warning to the danger of lapsing into a recurring cycle -- new, more successful variants, rising case count, lockdown, vaccine development, inoculation, falling case count, prematurely ended lockdown leading to new, more successful variants and so the process repeats. And it warned that Capitalism would ensure that poorer countries with minimal vaccine access ensured 'walking labs' in massive numbers.
The WSWS continued the demand for lockdown of all but essential providers until the virus and its variants no longer pose a threat. Additionally, it also follows the financial concerns which have driven this process at every point. Today's front page features a brief article on ' the vast increase in global wealth inequality' during the pandemic. Responding to the Credit Suisse report, it states that:
'The report admits that this growth in the wealth gap—amid the devastating impact of the public health and economic crisis of 2020—is rooted in the “nature of the policy response” by governments and central banks to the coronavirus pandemic.'
The article also describes Credit Suisse as an organization which:
'...specializes in “wealth management” services and caters to the needs of the capitalist elite and this, its twelfth annual report, is written to provide strategic advice to its customers.'
Kevin Reed observes that the report's authors try to conceal the 'class implications.' But the reality is that for a tiny fraction of the population, the pandemic created enormous fortunes giving that class very powerful incentive to make pandemic a permanent feature with which society will 'just have to learn to live.'
This policies must be recognized and answered for the anti-social and criminal policy that it is. Banking interests, governments and the social elite stand to be brought to the bar of justice. Their leaders incarcerated and their assets confiscated, these vast resources can then be applied to eradicate the virus and its variants, to care for those permanently injured, and to promote medical education and research.
'...only a matter of time.'
And yet a corporate [subservient] media will again defend the political class quoting them endlessly ...
'...no one could have anticipated this!!!'
Horsefeathers!
Well to be more accurate, the media may have been saying that initially, but when they realized they could use it as a political weapon, suddenly the drumbeat shifted to, "Trump should have anticipated this!!!"
Having said that I agree with your observation that:
But not all the world's elites or bankers are "capitalists" in the true sense of the word, certainly not free-market capitalists. Many are decidedly anti-capitalist. They operate more like a totalitarian regime, every bit as greedy and certainly more uncaring for the weak and downtrodden than any capitalist might be. This is just another way for them to keep their "subjects" in line with the age old cudgel of fear.
The key to combatting environmental or even man-made hazards is preparation, organization, and quickness to act in the right direction. For this we need experts and cooperation, which is most certainly lacking in our government and among the world's governments. This is more of a political issue than it is an economic (capitalist or socialist) issue.
Every time a virus replicates there is a chance for mutation. Every mutation has the possibility of making the virus stronger, weaker, more virulent, more transmissible... the list goes on. That is why the push was for everyone to get vaccinated as quickly as possible to prevent the spread and mutation of the virus. All people who have the chance of being vaccinated, unless they have a physically compelling reason not to receive the vaccine should get it. Period. There is no excuse in this day and with the knowledge that we have at our disposal to not be vaccinated. None. Any person who does not have a compelling physical reason to not be vaccinated, has access to the various vaccines and is not vaccinated has no reason to be breathing my oxygen and should role over and die..
Agreed!
Those who 'do not believe in evolution' should pay attention and at least learn something from this ongoing nightmare.
Hoping they learn something is asking too mich. If one does not "believe in evolution, " then they are unlikely or unwilling to learn anything that doesn't conform to their narratives or biases.
That has been repeatedly demonstrated.
Ad nauseum too
There was a report today of an outbreak of COVID but it didn't ID what variant it was. People should really take heed, COVID is far from over.
The only person that was exposed and did not get COVID was the one person that was vaccinated.
The building was just reopened and masks are not mandatory...Yes indeed, stupid is as stupid does.
Yep, it's going to be with us for a long time.
Even after both shots I still mask and avoid close contact with those who never masked and don't believe in vaccinations (everybody until proved differently).
Same here. Right now it is hard to tell who has and who hasn't been vaccinated. So even though I have had both shots, I don't trust anyone who does not wear a mask. And, most places where I go they still require you wear a mask. Doesn't bother me, I feel safer wearing a mask and will continue to do so until I feel comfortable not wearing one, unless required by the places I need to go.
I call them selfish assholes. They care nothing of others.
And they are nothing of themselves as well, as while they think they are invulnerable they are the ones who usually find themselves pushing Daisies. And the ones that they are not only others who refuse to get the vaccinations to protect themselves and their families, but the innocent children who are not yet cleared for the vaccines.
IMHO, those who refuse to get vaccinated should be put in quarantine until they do in order to protect the children and those who have medical conditions that prevents them from being vaccinated, such as people with cancer. If they later decide to get the vaccinations then they can leave quarantine.
This is not child's play we are dealing with, it's a national emergency, it's deadly, spreads quickly, and there are more variants cropping up all the time now.
I dont think there is a chance that we will get back into anything resembling a shut down mode, no matter how bad it were to get.
People will just say it is no worse or deadly than a seasonal flu and go on their merry way.
For all practical purposes the coronavirus pandemic is over in the US.
A great hope. Be right.
I'm not necessarily saying that it should be over, but it is over for practical purposes . No city or state will reimpose restrictions.
I make a distinction between the pandemic and the restrictions to fight the pandemic.
Do you see a potential next wave with a new variant? That is what I was talking about.
I agree that the officials will be far more conservative on making restrictions. Plus, we do have quite a bit more field intelligence on pandemics nowadays so we are better equipped to deal with it. We can be more surgical (smarter) about restrictions.
Finally, we now have a PotUS who will encourage people to be cautious and offer clear personal guidelines for safety as opposed to one who downplays the severity of what we are facing.
will the vaccines protect against the new variant?
unless there are mass new infections people will accept a "new wave" as no worse than the seasonal flu
They seem to so far, but each variant is a new ballgame.
Well if the most recent variant (currently Delta) is (in effect) functionally equivalent to the old (called Alpha) then people will likely continue as they are. Hopefully that means those who take this seriously will continue to do so.
On instillation, Biden adopted and began implementing Trump's 'back to school' policy. Lisping occasional, mildly cautionary language isn't a meaningful policy and will do nothing to prevent the rise of increasingly resistant variants.
Encouraging vigilance and caution is a hell of a lot better than '... it will just fade away ...'. The words of a PotUS influences people.
'It's going to disappear'
and fifty schmifty times more, LYING WHILE US CITIZENS WERE DYING !
Actually, every time folks say it is over, new cases spike.
I had a doctor's appointment yesterday and she of course asked if I had gotten my vaccine yet. Of course I had and told her. We talked a bit about the hesitancy of some people and she's concerned. There are still too many people in the world that are not yet vaccinated so the virus will continue to mutate and change. This will not change until we reach herd immunity world wide. And with modern travel it's all too easy for a new mutation to travel.
Her words are that while the pandemic is largely under control in the US, it is not over yet.
I suspect the vaccines chemistry is constantly being adjusted to include the new variants
But that would mean that we would need booster shots and we are having a hard enough time getting to the 75% rate even now.
I fully expect yearly booster shots will be recommended going forward.
At least for several years.
[r][emoved]
Stupid is as Stupid as
stupid people , ignorant to science, believe social diseased media and farr right news outlets over WHO, the CDC, and practically the entire field of Scientists and doctors who have stated we must get X amount of people vaccinated before we are out of the woods. The IGNORANCE on display in this country is RIDICULOUS . Yea, Uncle Charlie Knows more than the worlds scientists, but hey my sister knows a guy...well my boyfriends unsatisfied mistress told me , it's embarrassing and i had not a clue this many were so lost, till i found them...
I've said it before, never underestimate the stupidity of the America people.
as well i'll never understand the logic where as they believe the absolute DUMBING DOWN of the citizens of the United States, that which benefits they in as expeditiously as possible, a way, to enrichment, at the cost of a silly Country brought about by blood and treasure, as well as a few who were attempting to build a better Union, cause the scavs are circling again, and the demise of US to enrich they, all while only the dream of a country for many, just a REM bad song all along...
Only one way to fix that. Education. The focus needs to be on critical thinking skills applied to all the major subjects (mathematics, science, history, english, philosophy) and from an early age. Many teachers I know are saying that the curriculum and focus coming from the Feds, States, and school boards is trending in the exact opposite direction. That is not a good sign.
It doesn't help that many people seem to also complain or believe that schools are indoctrinating kids or are otherwise distrustful of the education system. Yep, we're screwed.
There is no logic. They seem devoid of logic.
Well to the extent that political activism trumps (no pun intended) the core curricula of science, mathematics, history and philosophy, some of that distrust is warranted and should be considered when looking for ways to improve the system. The public school teachers I know here in CA have certainly seen it, and I have witnessed the flip side of it with my own two eyes in the private Christian schools. All of my kids witnessed it in high school and most certainly in college. There were exceptions of course like my middle son's philosophy professor at UCSB who pointed out those sorts of failings in the education system and taught him how to think critically and solve problems with logic and reason.
The first priority of any education system should be to teach kids how to think for themselves, and work through problems systematically and logically, and not to just follow others without question, or because this is what everyone else is doing. The classroom is not a place for teachers to unload a political agenda or religious agenda on kids and teach them to "believe this, or else". That is most certainly happening, it displaces the focus on core competencies, and it needs to stop.
Look how many people worship #45 as the real God. That should explain how easily some people can be duped due to their own ignorance and stupidity.
Indeed. I suppose the stupid and ignorant are more gullible and easily swayed.
Agreed.
Also agreed.