It's official: Biden's performance is hurting Democrats' electoral prospects
Category: News & Politics
Via: texan1211 • 3 years ago • 27 commentsBy: Douglas E Schoen and Carly Cooperman, opinion contributors 2 hrs ago (MSN)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The recent drop in support for President Biden and his administration has imperiled Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, according to recent polling conducted by our firm, Schoen-Cooperman Research.
© Getty It's official: Biden's performance is hurting Democrats' electoral prospects
We find that, in Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent, and in New Jersey, Democrat and incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy leads by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent.
Though Biden won both states by double-digits in 2020, our data indicates that the president's declining ratings - brought on by his stalled domestic agenda, the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, the southern border crisis and the unchecked surge of progressivism - have demonstrably weakened Democrats in both races.
To that end, our poll found that two key likely voter subgroups - those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November and those who say they vote in all gubernatorial elections - are less likely to support their respective Democratic gubernatorial candidate. This signals that both Democrats may be in an even more fragile position than most overall voter polls make it seem.
To be sure, these trends are more pronounced in Virginia, where a direct line can be drawn from Biden's declining ratings to McAuliffe's tenuous lead.
McAuliffe leads Republican Glenn Youngkin by just four points among likely voters, according to our poll - compared to early August, when public polls at the time showed McAuliffe leading by eight or nine points.
For comparison, Biden beat Donald Trump by 10 points in Virginia in 2020, though we found that the majority of likely voters now disapprove (51 percent) rather than approve (47 percent) of Biden's job performance.
While McAuliffe has worked to distance himself from the president - by calling on Democrats and Biden to "get their act together" on infrastructure and criticizing the progressives' reconciliation bill - political polarization and the nationalization of state races can make it difficult for individual Democrats to fare better than their party.
Furthermore, our poll found that, among those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, McAuliffe's lead completely dissipates, and the race is tied at 47 percent. Notably, these voters disapprove of President Biden by an 11 point margin.
And in the horserace among those who vote in all gubernatorial elections, Youngkin leads, garnering 49 percent of the vote compared to McAuliffe's 45 percent. President Biden's approval rating is also underwater with these voters, who disapprove of him by a 14 point margin.
Our subgroup analysis might beg the question: Why would data among those absolutely certain to vote and those who habitually vote in gubernatorial elections be especially predictive in this election?
Winning off-election year contests is largely a matter of excitement and intensity. Given the national Democratic infighting, Biden's lagging ratings, and the absence of Donald Trump or a true Trump-like foe, there is no indication that fair-weather Virginia Democratic voters who are currently on the fence about voting will be motivated to turn out like they were in the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections and in the 2017 gubernatorial election.
On the other hand, Youngkin's approach is clearly motivating Republicans and conservatives. Youngkin's strategy has been to attack Biden's failures and stoke cultural anxieties about the rise of progressivism - especially as it relates to education and critical race theory in schools, which has become a divisive issue in the race - without directly tying himself to Donald Trump.
As Washington Post's James Homann observed this week, "railing about [critical race theory] lets Youngkin appeal to his coalition of Never Trumpers and Forever Trumpers without talking about Donald Trump."
"Republicans are in striking distance of winning statewide in Virginia for the first time since 2009, and Democrats seem to be sleepwalking into disaster," Homann added.
In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Murphy is in a decidedly stronger overall position than McAuliffe in Virginia. Not only is New Jersey reliably more Democratic than Virginia, but Murphy is also a decently popular incumbent.
That being said, Murphy's lead has markedly shrunk since earlier this summer, which occurred contemporaneously with the drop in President Biden's ratings.
In early August, a Monmouth University survey had Murphy leading by 16 points. In September, the same pollster recorded Murphy's lead at 13-points. In SCR's most recent poll, Murphy leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by nine points.
Likewise, President Biden's overall job approval rating, according to Gallup, dropped six points over the past month to 43 percent, and has steadily declined over the course of the summer - it stood at 49 percent in August and 56 percent in June.
Additionally, Murphy's current nine point lead - notably, the same margin as President Biden's approval rating in the state - is much narrower than Biden's 16 point margin of victory in New Jersey in 2020.
We also found that a similar trend exists in New Jersey as in Virginia in terms of those absolutely certain to vote and those who habitually vote in gubernatorial elections being more likely to vote Republican in the governor's race.
Among those who say they vote in all gubernatorial elections, Murphy's lead shrinks to four points, 49 percent to 45 percent, and among those who are absolutely certain to vote, Murphy leads by just two points, 48 percent to 46 percent.
While Murphy may be better-positioned for an eventual win than McAuliffe, these trends are significant, and cannot be ignored by Democrats.
To counter these trends in the short-term, the party needs to focus on turning out their base in each race. And in the long-term, as Ezra Klein summarized from his interview with David Shor, Democrats need to understand that the broader electorate, and especially swing-state voters "are not liberals, are not woke and do not see the world in the way that the people who staff and donate to Democratic campaigns do."
In other words, Democrats need to find a way to come together on a moderate and inclusive agenda that centers on unity, greater fiscal responsibility, responsible tax policies, and growing the economy for all.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of a forthcoming book, entitled "America: Unite or Die."
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A little good news for America.
Go on, Biden, keep those polls tanking!!!!!
They are as dead as dead can be in 2022 and they may have already elected Donald Trump in 2024.
The only question is are we going to be totally occupied with repairing all the damage. So much needs to be done on our own initiatives.
Dont know the second author, but Douglas E Schoen has been sucking Republican ass for many many years.
He claims to be a Democrat but hasnt supported a Democrat since Bill Clinton.
Do you have ANY comment on the CONTENT, or just content to snipe away at the authors????????????????????????????????????????????????????
To be honest with you, when I saw Schoen was the author I stopped looking at it. He is not a reputable person.
So you haven't read the article, but felt compelled to comment about.........??????????
Funny how Clinton though him as QUITE reputable.
Gee, old Billy Boy couldn't have possibly been wrong, could he??????
Anyways, the author isn't the TOPIC.
We were subjected to polling numbers for Trump just about every week, but isn't it interesting that polls no longer hold the same fascination for the left as they did when Trump was in office?
Any idea why not now?
Rhetorical, of course, no one wants to admit that the Biden/Harris Administration is tanking and underwater so of course any poll mentioned that is negative must be attacked because someone doesn't like the author telling the truth.
Nor do we hear the daily covid death total anymore.
Nor do we see reporters debating the administration's press secretary anymore.
Nor do we hear much on the wide open border.
Nor do we hear much about rising inflation.
Nor do we hear much about the shortage of workers.
Nor do we hear much about urban flight.
Any idea why not now?
Probably because the same kind of people Mark Zuckerberg put in charge of battleground state elections are running most of the nations msm.
Rhetorical, of course, no one wants to admit that the Biden/Harris Administration is tanking and underwater so of course any poll mentioned that is negative must be attacked because someone doesn't like the author telling the truth.
What else can they do?
Well, blaming the President is so yesteryear.
A complicit media is necessary for Democrats' success.
It is far easier to pretend circumstances don't exist if we don't talk about them.
Because the party in charge can't be blamed for anything,
Don't forget, they never promised much. All we ever got out of candidate Biden was a pledge to return to normalcy and unity.
Hell, the incompetent President can't even unite Democrats, never mind the country.
They didn't promise much, and delivered even less.
And do you know what the ABC panel was talking about on this morning's "This Week?"
Get this Tex - They were talking about prosecuting Steve Bannon for not complying with a congressional subpoena!
That's where their minds are.
Because by talking about that, they can fool Democrats into believing that everything in America is all rosy except for anything connected to Trump in any way.
Republicans and conservatives have done nothing but whine about Biden for the past 9 months.
The Jan 6 investigation is going to be a shock to y'alls systems.
They seem to think that a year long investigation of the Jan 6th protest will help them in the 2022 midterm elections. The problem is that rational people don't think like them. They've already lost the independents that gave Biden a chance in 2020.
It's too bad Howard Cosell is gone. We could have had him do the election night coverage when they get tossed out of congress. He could chant "Down go the democrats!" "DOWN GO THE DEMOCRATS!"
That's what I like about this.
Democrats want Trump to run, because they know it will be easier to win against him. If he doesn't they won't stand a chance.
I don't think many of them are smart enough to realize that independents decide most elections.
They are looking in from the outside. Most Americans are angry over the policies Biden put forward.
The Jan 6 investigation is going to be a shock to y'alls systems.
If you think political theatre is going to save the democrats in 2022, you're just whistling Past The Graveyard
That's true. The problem is that as long as Biden has created a rotten door waiting to be kicked in, Trump will run. It's so bad right now, that I think he will easily win.
Meanwhile back in the present and in reality....
Please be right here the day after the midterm elections.
Will you be wanting any whine with your crow?
Gee, would that be anywhere to close to Democrats and woke progressive liberals whining about Trump daily for the last FIVE years?
Democrats NEED Trump to run because they DAMN sure can't run on their accomplishments.
Why.....on earth....would that possibly matter?
Most of America is going to roll their eyes at what will probably be a year long circle-jerk only done in a desperate attempt to keep attention on Trump and off of Biden. The only people who will care are the Trump obsessed batshit far left, and we already know how they're going to vote anyway.
Without Trump on ballots and considering the nutbags the gop is running Democrats will pick up seats in both houses of Congress...
America is becoming more diverse. Women and minorities now outnumber the old and greatly diminished gop, which is shrinking quickly...
Please remember this statement the day after the midterms. Can I expect to see you here--win or lose?
I know it will be painful to lose at LEAST one House of Congress and most likely both. But you'll get over it after a while.
Can you point to even ONE poll that supports your fantastical theory of the Democrats winning the midterms?
one??????????????????????????????????????????
Every poll that had Trump/GOP tanking you all said polls did not mean a thing. Isn't it interesting now polls show Biden/DNC tanking you all think they are true? Any idea why?
Prove it.
Because they have favored democrats.