Republican Candidates 2024: Meet the GOP Presidential Hopefuls
So here they are (thus far). Who would you like to see as the GOP nominee?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The race for the GOP presidential nomination has a set of historic firsts: a criminally indicted former president seeking an Oval Office comeback, a vice president who refused to go along with a plot to steal the last election, the most politically accomplished woman ever to run as a Republican — and an already-popular governor waiting in the wings.
Who ultimately wins out will take on President Joe Biden — and potentially secure the White House.
There are also other candidates and would-be candidates, too. We've put the entire field into three categories — based roughly on their chances to capture the nod — along with full scouting reports for everything that could go right or wrong along the road to the 2024 convention in Milwaukee.
The Favorites
The most likely nominee(s). The Favorites have established major campaign infrastructure — plenty of money, staff in key states, outside groups ready to bombard the airwaves with advertising — built broad coalitions in polling and garnered endorsements from party leaders.
Declared
Ron DeSantisSince his election as Florida's governor in 2018, DeSantis has positioned himself as a national figure by championing far-right causes — and successfully turned the nation's largest swing state a distinct shade of red. Winning path
DeSantis doesn't want to be the anti-Trump, but rather a more effective (and less scandalous) continuation of the former president's political movement. By the numbers, it could be a winning primary coalition to combine Trump fans with loyal Republicans who are skeptical about a third straight Trump nomination. But it requires DeSantis to go at Trump directly — without alienating too many of his supporters — and position himself as a more electable alternative.
❌ Losing path
His pre-launch struggles have exposed some of his liabilities: There's the perception that he's an awkward campaigner, and his efforts to sell Trump Lite to voters who want the full-calorie version have fizzled so far. Trump has attacked him from the left on abortion and entitlements, a strategy meant to undermine DeSantis' electability arguments.
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Declared
Donald TrumpThe former president — who has refused to accept his 2020 defeat — is seeking to become only the second man in history to return to the Oval Office after his ouster. Winning path
Trump remains popular among the Republican base despite numerous scandals and the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol that punctuated his turbulent presidency. His false claim that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election has given his comeback bid a patina of grievance to add to his appeal to return to the policies of his administration. With only a few exceptions, Trump's likely rivals have refrained from criticizing his time in office or behavior outside of it.
❌ Losing path
Trump fatigue. Trump has dominated American politics — in both parties — since he first became a candidate in 2015. Unlike his first campaign, when the field against him was split, Trump could face a single competitor who serves as a counterweight in DeSantis. And legal jeopardy on multiple fronts — including criminal charges in New York — could convince enough GOP primary voters to turn the page and look to the future, even if they like Trump and his record as president.
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The Contenders
In the ballgame, but not top-tier candidates. The Contenders are running credible campaigns, with enough money and staff to be competitive, but haven't gained as much traction. Still, a Contender has enough support in a key early state or among a segment of the GOP electorate to build upon as the primaries approach — or potentially play king- (or queen-) maker down the road.
Declared
Nikki Haley
Haley combines executive experience, foreign policy chops, a tie to Trump's administration, home-field-advantage in an early state and a historic candidacy. Winning path
As the alternative to a months-long Trump-DeSantis food fight. A win in South Carolina's primary — third after Iowa and New Hampshire — would go a long way to vaulting Haley into the top tier. Already, Haley is the most politically accomplished woman — as a twice-elected governor and cabinet member — to enter a Republican presidential primary field. Despite the gender gap between the parties, women make up nearly half of the GOP primary electorate.
❌ Losing path
Like all of the candidates below the top tier, Haley risks getting drowned out in a primary where Trump and DeSantis suck up most of the oxygen. And Haley's seemingly shifting views of Trump after the Jan. 6 riot threaten her credibility in taking on her former boss.
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Maybe Mike Pence
Pence spurned Trump when he honored the results of the 2020 election, and the former vice president appears poised to be Trump's loudest critic in the 2024 presidential field. Winning path
He probably doesn't. But if he can survive the early caucuses and primaries as the candidate of choice of the GOP's small but real "never-Trump" bloc, he could be a powerbroker in the heart of primary season to steer his voters toward an alternative.
❌ Losing path
The danger for Pence is being a non-factor in the race. Other candidates will hit Trump, too, though perhaps not with the solemnity of the former vice president. And those in that group — DeSantis, Haley, among others — won't have Pence's low ceiling.
Ruled out
Ted Cruz
The 2016 runner-up is foregoing another campaign, instead choosing to seek a third term in the Senate.
The Long shots
Not a factor — at least not yet. The Long Shots barely register in polling, nationally and in the early states. There's always the possibility of catching fire, especially in one of the early states, to propel you into the next tier. But there's an even greater likelihood of an ignominious, early dropout.
Declared
Ryan Binkley
A Dallas-area businessman and non-denominational pastor, Binkley is concentrating his early efforts in Iowa, where he went up with TV ads in early May 2023. Winning path
Binkley's opening ad hit inspirational notes, promising to renew a country that is "strong, unified and reconciled to God and each other."
❌ Losing path
A first-time candidate with little national profile, Binkley is betting big on an Iowa-first strategy that could easily flame out.
Declared
Larry Elder
The former conservative media personality, who first took the plunge when he campaigned to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a failed 2021 recall effort, is going national. Winning path
Elder worked for decades as a talk-radio host, and he could be a strong communicator, including on a debate stage. Despite African Americans making up a very small slice of the Republican primary electorate, each of the past two contested primaries have seen Black candidates surge to the top tier (Herman Cain and Ben Carson, respectively), though subsequently decline before the voting began.
❌ Losing path
A lot of ink was spilled about Elder's effort to topple Newsom mid-term, but the 2021 recall failed spectacularly, 62 percent to 38 percent. Elder was also accused by his ex-fiancee of abuse during their relationship last decade.
Declared
Asa Hutchinson
After a lengthy career in public office — as a U.S. attorney, congressman (and Bill Clinton impeachment manager), DEA administrator and two-term Arkansas governor — Hutchinson says he's mounting an underdog presidential bid. Winning path
Hutchinson has expressed misgivings about the GOP's direction during the Trump era, but selling a return to the conservativism of the 1990s and 2000s is an uphill climb. He says Trump should drop out of the race following his indictment in New York — far from a majority opinion in the party.
❌ Losing path
He could end up like two of Trump's 2016 rivals — former New York Gov. George Pataki or another former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee — who barely register after their political moments have already passed them by.
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Declared
Perry Johnson
Johnson failed to qualify for the ballot in his last campaign — for Michigan governor in 2022 — but the businessman and self-described "quality guru" has already been running cable-TV ads in Iowa. Winning path
Actually getting on the ballot would be a good start. Johnson was disqualified in 2022 due to signature fraud — he blamed a vendor — rendering the more than $7 million he loaned his campaign wasted. His early-state advertising could get him on a debate stage, however, if he starts to register in polls.
❌ Losing path
Like other self-funding long shots, there's a limit to how much of their own money someone would spend if they aren't going anywhere.
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Declared
Vivek Ramaswamy
The investor and former pharmaceutical company CEO has launched an outsider campaign based largely on a critique of "wokeness" among corporations and other institutions. Winning path
If his pet issue is vaulted to the fore, especially in primary debates, where it will compete with a more traditional GOP issue set of the economy, crime, foreign policy and immigration. But he also won't be the only loud voice against "wokeness" if DeSantis is in the race. He's wealthy and can afford to jump-start his campaign out of his own checkbook.
❌ Losing path
Self-funding candidates often tire of spending millions of dollars if they aren't catching on among the electorate.
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Declared
Tim Scott
The South Carolina senator is a favorite of the party's donor class and hails from an early-primary state. Winning path
By selling primary voters on a sunnier vision for the country than Trump's "retribution" tour or DeSantis' war on liberalism. Scott won't have to worry about money — he's one of the Senate GOP's strongest fundraisers and has connections to well-heeled conservatives like Oracle's Larry Ellison and the Koch network. And showing strength in South Carolina could vault him into contention elsewhere.
❌ Losing path
If Republican voters are more attracted to the bellicose rhetoric from the current frontrunners. And if both Scott and Haley are still on the ballot in South Carolina, it could dilute their favorite-son and -daughter candidacies.
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Maybe
Doug Burgum
Only three states have a smaller population than North Dakota, which has elected Burgum, a former tech executive, to two terms as governor. Winning path
Burgum has a reputation as a conservative technocrat, a profile typically more sought after among governors than presidential candidates. If he can turn the focus to governing, he may get some traction in a field otherwise mostly focused on Trump.
❌ Losing path
Without any national profile, Burgum is counting on making an impression in the party's primary debates — if he qualifies. While North Dakota voters enacted term limits on the ballot in 2022, a grandfather clause would still allow Burgum to seek a third term in 2024 if a presidential bid doesn't work out.
Maybe
Chris Christie
Once a Trump ally, the former New Jersey governor wants to be the field's leading (and loudest) critic of the former president. Winning path
A successful Christie campaign probably hinges on Republican primary voters making a hard turn on the Trump era. He is clearly hoping to engineer that himself, by attacking the former president directly and clearing the path for an alternative. Christie did effectively end Marco Rubio's 2016 campaign on the debate stage, but Trump commands a much more loyal base.
❌ Losing path
In 2012, Christie seemed to to have a real shot at the nomination during his first term as governor — but he missed his moment when he decided not to run. By the 2016 race, he was unpopular at home and never gained traction. This time, it's dubious whether GOP primary voters want to hear Christie's version of truth-telling about Trump's conduct and personality.
Maybe
Kristi Noem
Since her election as South Dakota governor in 2018, Noem has yearned to be a national figure. A Fox News mainstay, her state's tourism board spent nearly $1 million in 2020 on the channel during that year's Republican convention for ads that featured Noem touting South Dakota direct-to-camera. Winning path
If there's room in the Trump/MAGA lane for a third (and female) candidate. Also, unlike Haley, Noem has stayed in Trump's good graces and is often mentioned as a possible replacement for Pence on the general-election ticket if Trump wins.
❌ Losing path
DeSantis was first elected the same year and has executed his version of conservative governance on a much larger scale. South Dakota is no Florida.
Maybe
Mike Rogers
Rogers gave up the gavel of the House Intelligence Committee in 2014 to become a talk-radio personality. Now he says he's considering a political comeback. Winning path
The Michigan Republican is a frequent cable-news guest, so he has a slightly higher profile than anyone else who hasn't been on a ballot in more than a decade. In addition to being a former intel chair in Congress, he was an FBI agent before running for office — an interesting profile in today's GOP.
❌ Losing path
As a TV pundit and all-around Republican wise man, Rogers has occasionally been critical of Trump, even though he served on Trump's 2016 transition time and was briefly mentioned as a possible James Comey replacement as FBI director in 2017.
Maybe
Chris Sununu
The popular governor of the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire has made the rounds in the national media, dismissing Trump as the GOP's leader. Winning path
By becoming the main figure of the party's moderate lane, amid a pileup on his right. He's won four gubneratorial elections, including two on the ballot the same time Trump lost the battleground state. And a victory in the New Hampshire primary would be a prerequisite, too.
❌ Losing path
If he's too moderate (and anti-Trump) for today's GOP primary voters. And if his "favorite son" status in New Hampshire diminishes the state's weight — as then-Sen. Tom Harkin's candidacy did in 1992, when the Iowan won his home state but struggled in major contests elsewhere.
UnlikelyGreg AbbottAbbott was just elected to a third term as Texas governor and has been one of Republicans' top fundraisers anywhere in the country.UnlikelyMarco RubioSince being hailed as the potential future of the GOP eight years ago, Rubio has been eclipsed by a fellow Floridian in DeSantis.UnlikelyGlenn YoungkinThe term-limited Virginia governor is sometimes floated as an electable conservative candidate.Ruled outTom CottonThe Arkansas senator said in November 2022 he wouldn't run for president.Ruled outLarry HoganThe former Maryland governor — one of Trump's top GOP critics — chose not to enter the race.Ruled outMike PompeoAfter a monthslong flirtation, Trump's former CIA director and secretary of state announced in April that "the time is not right" for him to launch a presidential campaign in 2024.Ruled outRick ScottAfter an eventful four years in the Senate — including a fruitless cycle as NRSC chairman and an unsuccessful effort to topple Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — Scott chose a bid for a second term over a presidential campaign.
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(brief comments on purpose)
Given what we have to choose from and disregarding ability to win (too early to judge in most cases), the candidates that rise to the top for me are:
Chris Sununu ☞ Grounded, sensible, presidential, experienced governor who could make a very good PotUS.
Nikki Haley ☞ Experienced, level-headed and presidential. Her past sycophantic support of Trump is a major negative but she seems to have moved past that and is not going to kowtow to the MAGA contingent.
Chris Christie ☞ His past pathetic sycophantic relationship with Trump is extremely difficult to overlook. But, to his credit, he is aggressively bucking Trump now and he is making solid, sensible arguments. If I were to evaluate him from 2023 onward, Christie actually is looking like a good candidate. Prior to what he is showing this year, I would have not even considered him.
A few I would consider except ...
Asa Hutchinson ☞ A very good candidate 10 years ago. At 72, he is currently too old IMO but I might be able to look past his age.
Mike Pence ☞ Although I think he is a very good person and could be a decent (albeit boring) PotUS, he is too much of a Beta personality, and I cannot get past his religious views ... in particular, on abortion.
Tim Scott ☞ Seems promising. A positive message potential but much to be learned about him.
Not looking good ...
Ron DeSantis ☞ Turned me off with his uber-authoritarian attitude and his clearly divisive positions.
And of course ...
Trump ☞ Should never hold any public office.
I have to disagree. That he ever needed to seek advice about whether he could decline to certify the vote makes me think he's not.
He might have been seeking advice to ensure he knew where he stood constitutionally. I would have done so because I would want to be fully informed.
I have heard (do not remember the source) that his first reaction was that 'this cannot be right'. That makes sense to me ... I suspect that would be the first reaction of most anyone with an ounce of brains (and integrity).
But, that said, I see him as Trump's primary sycophant (while in office) and that is a tough thing to overlook. Definitely a Beta ... follower ... versus someone who would lead the nation.
Christie is only bucking Trump to become the stand out of non-sycophantic republicans. If the political winds change direction, he will once again support Trump.
Still think she is just bucking for the VP ticket with Trump.
Skin color is too important to the current group of republican voters. As is external genitalia.
Possibly.
Agreed, but as noted in this seed I am disregarding electability.
Who would be your choice(s) for GOP nominee ... those who would be best for the nation?
Too early to even hazard a choice. As a candidate utters the word "woke" that candidate is removed from my selections.
Yes, I agree, it is too early to make a well-informed decision.
However, we could discuss qualities of extant candidates and see which ones seem to offer the best for the GOP and the nation.
Offer a serious comment.
I still feel it is too early. After the 1st republican debate we will have a better handle on where the candidates stand on certain areas, and where they just claim to stand.
All we know for sure right now is that:
1st Candidate (Trump) is an adjudged sex offender currently fighting several dozen criminal charges with more to come.
2nd Candidate (DeSantis) is anti-business and anti-Constitution.
Also, DeSantis is anti-liberal (which is not going to help in the general election).
Chances are that it will be either Trump or DeSantis as the GOP nominee. I have almost no expectation of a quality candidate arising from either party in 2024.
Yeah, but, you won't be voting for a Republican anyway.
But I might. I could vote for Sununu. Possibly others depending on how the campaign goes.
As good a reason as any when there is 0 chance of voting for any of them anyway.
Who would you pick as the GOP nominee?
And you won't be voting democrat, but seem awfully concerned with Biden.
The latest polls show Trump dominating DeSantis by close to 30 points.
Chris Sununu announced a couple of days ago that he was not going to run.
Nikki Haley is trying to walk a middle line and IMO is failing.
Asa Hutchinson, is too old.
Mike Pence is Evangelical with ideas that I believe most people can't abide by.
Tim Scott, I don't know enough about him to make any comment.
Chris Christie, I believe that he is in the race only to destroy Trump. We'll have to wait to see if he gets enough support to even get on the stage.
Trump, IMO he should never ever be allowed to be president again, but I believe that he will win the Republican primary.
So now try this (because this is what I was trying to do). Imagine you had to pick a nominee for the GoP. How would you evaluate the current field?
That will take some time so I'll be back tomorrow, it's midnight here and I need my beauty sleep.
Chris Sununu moderate and level-headed governor with hands-on experience. Definitely a contender but now has removed himself from running.
Nikki Haley, changed positions, was a Trump supporter then wasn't then was again. She removed the Confederate flag from the state house but it took years and it wasn't until after the mass shooting and killing of blacks in the church that she finally acted.
Chris Christie, I could write pages on him. First, he was a total Trump lemming, even preparing Trump for the debates. It seems that now he has turned the page and is one of the few that is calling out Trump for what he is. I would not have considered him prior to 2023 but he seems to be one of the few that is delivering a message. I would look at him again.
Asa Hutchinson, a moderate, gets his point across and doesn't back down from calling Trump out. The big problem is that he is 72 years old and for me, that is a disqualifier.
Mike Pence is a follower, not a leader that we desperately need. His Evangelical positions would not allow me to vote for him.
Tim Scott, I know very little about Mr. Scott and would have to hear/see his policy positions before rendering an opinion but he seems moderate. Wait and see for me.
Ron DeSantis has no policy position except his ''war on woke'' which is now starting to backfire on him. Laws that he has pushed through (many of which the courts have knocked down) have IMO been against everything that America should stand for. A loser all the way I could never vote for him.
Trump, should never be president again under any circumstances. The reasons for this would fill a book.
The remaining I know little about so I don't have an opinion on them at this point except for Elder who is a nut case.
Very close to how I see things. Is this list in order of who you think would be the best GOP nominee (best nominee the GOP could offer to the general electorate)?
Sununu first, Christie second, and the rest in one lump except for Trump and DeSantis who belong in a category of their own and that is not a good thing.
Can't rate Scott since I have little info on him.
I like Sununu too, but too bad he's not running.
I like Hutchinson, he was a good governor. I didn;t realize he is 72
IMO it's way too early to make more than the wildest of wild assed guesses.
Moderate Republicans would probably fare better during a general election campaign than during the primaries. And since there isn't a general election campaign season for 2024 then moderate candidates (of any party) have been precluded from the process. (Don't ignore that Democrats have intentionally whittled the general election campaign down to six weeks.) The 2024 election has been deliberately rigged to favor fringe positions and extremists. The 2024 Presidential election will not be a free, fair, and open election. Moderates have already been denied a chance so are wasting their time and everyone else's.
The political imperative among Republicans is to stop the Democrats' bizarre agenda to deny reality. And the all-or-nothing Democrat politics means that a Republican compromiser won't be very appealing to the rank and file. Republicans want a St. George to slay the dragon. Who can damage Democrats the most?
Moderates like Chris Sununu and Tim Scott have already been written off because of the election calendar (dictated to a large extent by Biden). Mike Pence will be too distracted by association with Trump to become a contender. DeSantis is leading now because he is hitting Democrats hard enough to be featured in the news cycle. Nikki Haley is tough enough to compete but needs to find a way into the news cycle. Chris Christie has a reputation as a whiner rather than a fighter so needs to rebrand.
It's seven months till primary voting begins. And the Republican primaries run for another five months. So, the dynamics can certainly change in unexpected ways. But at this early date it appears that moderates have been deliberately excluded and Republican unity will depend upon fighting Democrats. While too soon to make specific predictions, it does seem that the Republican contenders who can effectively use Trump against Democrats will rise to the top. Trump, himself, will come away from the primaries as a victim or martyr, depending upon how the contenders use Trump.
This is just sad,
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Where do they find all these people who will, in a poll, claim that they would vote for Trump to be PotUS under any circumstances?
Focusing attention on Trump doesn't really hide how badly Biden is doing. Yeah, Trump beats Biden. But then so does DeSantis. Republicans also currently have an advantage with the generic Congressional vote.
Biden didn't even get a bounce from the debt limit.
So the polling, all together, suggests that the voters are rejecting Biden. In a 'lesser of two evils' election, Biden is at a disadvantage.
I would throw out any of them who have shown sympathy towards Christian nationalism. That eliminates DeSantis and Pence.
Christie, and Haley are long time Trump enablers. Out. Tim Scott is a friendly outgoing Clarence Thomas.
I guess that leaves Asa Hutchinson who has no chance.
None of them. But maybe Margaret Chase Smith maybe except she's dead.