Tropical Storm Hilary expected to deluge Southern California with heavy rain
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The first tropical threat to the U.S. this season isn't on the East Coast or in the Gulf of Mexico — it's in Southern California.
Tropical Storm Hilary formed Wednesday morning along Mexico's western coast and is forecast to bring intense rain to Southern California early next week. If it makes landfall, it would become only the fourth storm of at least tropical storm strength to hit the area.
Conditions are favorable for Hilary to increase in intensity over the next two to three days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm's peak intensity Saturday morning as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The storm is expected to weaken soon after that due to cooler ocean temperatures and potential land interaction with Mexico's Baja, just south of California. By Sunday, heavy rainfall is expected to reach Southern California and southwest Arizona.
A recorded storm has never moved into California as a hurricane, and only three storms have made it into California as tropical storms: Nora in 1997, Kathleen in 1976 and Long Beach storm in 1939. That said, there are dozens of instances of tropical rain reaching Southern California and the Southwest from the remnants of tropical storms and hurricanes. Most recently, Hurricane Kay in 2022 killed a person when their house was caught in a debris flow in San Bernardino County.
Tropical Storm Hilary's forecast path.NBC News
The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, forecasts that Hilary will transition from a tropical storm to an extratropical storm by Monday morning near the California-Mexico border with 60 mph maximum sustained winds. Long-range computer models show the potential for 40-60 mph wind gusts Monday in Southern California, especially in the mountains.
The wind damage potential appears to be a minor concern compared to the rainfall threat. There is already a slight risk of flash flooding issued for the region early next week, which is likely to be upgraded to a moderate or high risk if the forecast trend toward Southern California continues.
The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with isolated areas over 6 inches — a considerable amount of rain in a short time for the typically dry Southwest.
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I’m honestly kind of excited for it. Hoping for buckets and buckets of rain, but I’ll probably be disappointed.
Well, if it does happen be careful of flooding. We get flooded a lot in Arkansas and because of it I now have a large hole in my front drive way (we're putting in a steel bridge)
ugh, it's a good thing I like you...
And I can't go camping this Friday because of it. I'm not a happy camper
fill the hole full of water, park the camper next to it, and grab your pole and a 12 pack...
LOL!
riiiggghhhtttt.....we've been waiting for dry weather so they can finish the damn thing up!
I'm excited for it, too. I hope we get a huge rain.
So glad I live in Oz. Have actually driven to find a tornado. No joy.
Suppose the day I actually find one will be my worst nightmare.
Careful what you wish for. I had an EF 4 cruise in my backyard in 1989. Damage to my house but houses down the street were obliterated. I think it was on the way up when it hit me. I still get jumpy during severe thunder storms.
I've been thru 3 in denver since 1980. the first one scared the hell out of me. the second and third ones I was more concerned about getting my truck out of the hail storms that preceded them.
So glad I live inland in SE Arizona with several mountain ranges between.
They have now announced the first ever Tropical Storm Warning for Southern California.
nice that the rainfall will subsidize the reservoirs after a hot summer, but I'd be worried about all the under growth heading into an el nino fall.
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My kitties and I are all fine. The most we saw here was some moderate rain, with very little wind. But, we are thankful that we are very lucky compared to many other areas here in SoCal that got devastating winds, flash flooding and damaging rain that cause many roads to collapse and/or washed out or blocked by mudslides and large debris flows that caused major destruction of homes and/or property.
And to top it off, we had a 5 point earthquake strike as Hilary made its way into SoCal.
On the other hand, Hilary provided SoCal with nearly a years worth of rain within a short span of time that will surely help with our drought conditions.
Today we have lots of warm sunshine once again, and have seen many records met or new records across the span of the storm that have not been seen in SoCal before. A New chapter in SoCal history has been seen.
And my heart and good wishes go out to those who have suffered from the force and destruction of Hilary, and the lives that have been lost.
Good to hear you are good
Back in Virginia I am still slowly cleaning up from a bad thunderstorm 2 weeks ago. Trees fell but they landed on each other and only bent a gutter. There was some damage in the neighborhood and lots of trees fell and power was off for a day, but nobody got hurt.
Thanks, charger. The storms damaging winds and heavy rain have caused a great deal of destruction, and the cleanup will take a good while wherever it it.
Nothing like adding insult to injury
Indeed, Giggles. But, most people outside of the immediate earthquake area really didn't pay much attention to it as they were preparing for Hilary as it was quickly approaching landfall.
I saw Palm Springs and Cathedral City on TV just now. I am fairly familiar with both cities and they really took a hit.
They did. In my area, we just had a nice rain, heavy at times.
No damage, I hope?
None at all, thanks. And since we just had our leaky garage roof redone everything stayed dry.
As I see more reports of the damage caused by Hilary to such a wide area of SoCal and other areas, that shows how much wide spread destruction the storm caused.
Lake Mead is rising again!
I wonder if it will ever get back to pre drought levels?