Consistent Signs of Erosion in Black and Hispanic Support for Biden - The New York Times
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
President Biden is underperforming among nonwhite voters in New York Times/Siena College national polls over the last year, helping to keep the race close in a hypothetical rematch against Donald J. Trump.
On average, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by just 53 percent to 28 percent among registered nonwhite voters in a compilation of Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023, which includes over 1,500 nonwhite respondents.
The results represent a marked deterioration in Mr. Biden's support compared with 2020, when he won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters. If he's unable to revitalize this support by next November, it will continue a decade-long trend of declining Democratic strength among voters considered to be the foundation of the party.
Democratic share of major party vote among nonwhite voters
By race/ethnicity
Gender
Black 90%
All nonwhite
Female 80%
Hispanic 70%
Mr. Biden's tepid support among these voters appears to be mostly responsible for the close race in early national surveys, which show Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump all but tied among registered voters even as Mr. Biden runs as well among white voters as he did four years ago.
With more than a year to go until the election, there's plenty of time for Mr. Biden to re-energize his former supporters. Indeed, the Times/Siena data suggests that Mr. Biden could approach — though not match — his 2020 standing simply by reclaiming voters who say they backed him in the last election.
But the possibility that his standing will remain beneath the already depressed levels of the last presidential election should not be discounted. Democrats have lost ground among nonwhite voters in almost every election over the last decade, even as racially charged fights over everything from a border wall to kneeling during the national anthem might have been expected to produce the exact opposite result. Weak support for Mr. Biden could easily manifest itself as low turnout — as it did in 2022 — even if many young and less engaged voters ultimately do not vote for Mr. Trump.
Many of Mr. Biden's vulnerabilities — like his age and inflation — could exacerbate the trend, as nonwhite voters tend to be younger and less affluent than white voters. Overall, the president's approval rating stands at just 47 percent among nonwhite voters in Times/Siena polling over the last year; his favorability rating is just 54 percent.
Issues like abortion and threats to democracy may also do less to guard against additional losses among Black and Hispanic voters, who tend to be more conservative than white Biden voters. They may also do less to satisfy voters living paycheck to paycheck: Mr. Biden is underperforming most among nonwhite voters making less than $100,000 per year, at least temporarily erasing the century-old tendency for Democrats to fare better among lower-income than higher-income nonwhite voters.
The Times/Siena data suggests the emergence of a fairly clear education gap among nonwhite voters, as Mr. Biden loses ground among less affluent nonwhite voters and those without a degree. Overall, he retains a 61-23 lead among nonwhite college graduates, compared with a mere 49-31 lead among those without a four-year degree.
If the gap persists until the election, it will raise the possibility that the political realignment unleashed by Mr. Trump's brand of conservative populism has spread to erode the political loyalties of working-class voters, of all races, who were drawn to the Democrats by material interests in an earlier era of politics.
Mr. Biden's weakness among nonwhite voters is broad, spanning virtually every demographic category and racial group, including a 72-11 lead among Black voters and a 47-35 lead among Hispanic registrants. The sample of Asian voters is not large enough to report, though nonwhite voters who aren't Black or Hispanic — whether Asian, Native American, multiracial or something else — back Mr. Biden by just 40-39. In all three cases, Mr. Biden's tallies are well beneath his standing in the last election.
The findings are echoed by other high-quality national surveys. These show Mr. Biden faring as poorly among nonwhite voters (or even somewhat worse) as he does in the Times/Siena data. On average, he leads by 74-19 among Black voters and by 50-40 among Hispanic voters across 12 high-quality national surveys so far this year.
The shift is also echoed in how nonwhite Times/Siena respondents say they voted in 2020. Overall, nonwhite respondents who divulged their vote in the last election reported backing Mr. Biden by a margin of 70 percent to 24 percent, a figure neatly in line with postelection studies. Nonetheless, Mr. Biden does not approach those tallies in a hypothetical rematch among the very same group of respondents.
The survey finds evidence that a modest but important 5 percent of nonwhite Biden voters now support Mr. Trump, including 8 percent of Hispanic voters who say they backed Mr. Biden in 2020. Virtually no nonwhite voters who say they supported Mr. Trump — just 1 percent — say they will back Mr. Biden this time around. In comparison, white Biden and white Trump supporters from 2020 say they will return to their previous candidate in nearly identical numbers.
Beyond voters who have flipped to Mr. Trump, a large number of disaffected voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 now say they're undecided or simply won't vote this time around. As a consequence, his weakness is concentrated among less engaged voters on the periphery of politics, who have not consistently voted in recent elections and who may decide to stay home next November.
Overall, Mr. Biden leads by 81-8 among Black voters who turned out in 2022, but by just 62-14 among those who skipped the midterm elections. Similarly, he leads by 53-33 among Hispanics who voted in the midterms, compared with just a 42-37 lead among those who did not vote.
Young people of color, who make up a disproportionate share of nonvoters, are an important part of Mr. Biden's challenge. He holds a 48-29 lead among nonwhite registered voters under age 45, compared with a 58-28 lead among those over 45. In contrast, there was little difference among nonwhite voters over or under 45 in their share of support for Mr. Biden in 2020 — a result that's echoed in the self-reported recalled 2020 vote choice of the Times/Siena survey respondents.
The generational divide is most striking among Black voters, who have typically offered all but unanimous support to Democrats. That overwhelming support persists among Black registered voters over 45. They back Mr. Biden, 83-8, but Mr. Biden holds just a 59-14 lead among the 152 registered Black respondents under 45.
The dissatisfaction of younger and lower-turnout voters raises the possibility that Mr. Biden's weakness in the polls may show up primarily as low turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, rather than as a titanic shift toward Mr. Trump. Something similar might have happened in the last midterm election, when Democrats appeared to maintain usual shares of support among Black voters, but the racial turnout gap increased to multi-decade highs.
Indeed, Mr. Biden's lead among nonwhite voters expands to 57-27 among those who voted in 2020 or 2022, compared with 53-28 among all registered nonwhite voters. And his lead among those recent voters could grow further, to 63-29, if undecided and dissenting voters are assigned to the candidate whom they said they backed in the last presidential election.
A 63-29 lead would be much closer to Mr. Biden's standing among nonwhite voters in the last presidential election, as would his 84-11 lead among Black voters and his 55-37 lead among Hispanic voters in that same scenario.
Yet even after allocating the remaining undecided voters, these tallies might still be the worst for a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984.
Nate Cohn is The Times's chief political analyst. He covers elections, polling and demographics for The Upshot. Before joining The Times in 2013, he was a staff writer for The New Republic.More about Nate Cohn
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Will we now hear that Nate Cohn is supposedly a "Conservative?"
I can tell you for sure that Biden is certainly not very popular among the Hispanic community in my neck of the desert on the Arizona border. Can't imagine why...
Look as they may the MAGA Hats and El Trumpo have no path to win back the Presidency in 2024!
Biden would whoop Trump by ten million votes...
Biden now has a record as president.
and that record has a lot more positive benefits for non-millionaires in america than the last guy...
Actually, many are suffering because of his actions as president.
What on earth do you do for a living?
based on what? Your hurt feelings?
Based on what? Surely not Biden's "accomplishments".
It should be based on the fact that Trump is the only PotUS in US history who attempted to steal a US election and that he demonstrated, in crystal clear terms, that he will throw anyone and anything under the bus ... including the nation.
So we are ignoring the Democrats actions after the 2016 election and based on hurt feelings and Biden's shitty "accomplishment record". Gotcha.
Just amazing. Do you (and Texan and JustJim) not understand what "steal a US election" means?
No PotUS has ever, in our entire history, attempted to steal a US presidential election until Trump.
How can you possibly not know this??
Do you normally vote up comments if you disagree with them?
Should we take your comment to mean that you think the 2016 election was NOT an attempted steal by a sitting PotUS? That you disagree with Jeremy?
Take a clear stand.
You refuse to answer.
I am going to make a very sound assumption that when you vote up a comment you agree with it. That is because most people do not vote up comments when they disagree.
Do you recognize that no PotUS has ever, in our entire history, attempted to steal a US presidential election until Trump?
You mean it's NOT lying to FISA courts to get warrants for fictitious accusations and run investigation after investigation only to come up empty handed and still run a partisan farce impeachment process? Then to top it all off, hold another partisan shit show that doctored evidence and run anther partisan farce of an impeachment process.
You mean it's not that? That's exactly what we saw the Democrats attempt to do from the 2016 election to, well, today.
Why do you fear this ONE man so much.
Do you understand the difference between the sitting PotUS and a group of citizens pissing and moaning?
Focus, Jeremy.
Trump is the only sitting PotUS who has attempted to steal a USA election. He did so by leveraging his influence as PotUS.
Do you comprehend this fact?
I am focused. Just waiting for you to answer my questions.
No, Jeremy, your comment is (as usual) deflecting from my questions.
Nope. Doesn't even come close to a comprehendible answer. Sounds like something we might hear from Geriatric Joe.
Based on what????????????????????????????????????????????????????
JFC. Ubelieveable.
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Do you realize that there was no sitting POTUS in the election and that Hillary did indeed attempt to steal it.?
Of course I am aware of it.
And you comparing Hillary joining a lawsuit with Trump's attempts to steal the election is beyond absurd.
And there were all the riots across the country and there were the attempts to corrupt the electors to be faithless and the frivolous recount attempts. Buy some ginkgo biloba. I heard it helps the memory.
The issue is Trump attempting to steal a USA election. Instead of dealing with that you deflect.
You are off yapping about other events in time but that will not change the fact that Trump is the only PotUS in US history who tried to steal an election.
It is irresponsible, irrational and unpatriotic to vote for a former PotUS who violated his oath to preserve, protect and defend the US constitution by attempting to steal a US election with lies, corruption and fraud.
The latest poll I have seen has them tied
The good news is that this puts more pressure on the Ds to encourage Biden to not run.
The bad news is that this opens up a chance for Trump to be PotUS.
Our political state of affairs is abysmal.
Not really. If Biden backed out, the democrat party's most loyal supporters would demand that his vp take on the top spot on the ticket. It seems that Joe created a few traps for the dems.
That is a possibility. But I do not get the impression that Harris is very popular with the Ds.
All in all, this just sickens me more that the GOP refused to detach from Trump.
Who is on Democrats' short list to replace Biden? Democrats haven't been encouraged to remove Diane Feinstein so it doesn't seem likely that Democrats will be trying to remove Biden. Like it or not, Democrats are stuck with Biden till the bitter end unless Biden mimics Lyndon Johnson.
Trump is the antidote to Biden. As long as Biden is in the running then Trump will be in the running. (Don't ignore that Trump's candidacy is also about changing the Republican Party. IMO that's why DeSantis is floundering; DeSantis is still TEA Party and not MAGA.)
Didn't happen overnight. Some of what we're seeing was a predictable result from the Obama administration. Liberals appear to have completely missed that a brown majority would become more conservative out of necessity.
I do not have access to such information. I would submit Tim Walz.
The Ds and everyone else. Both parties are pushing crappy candidates, but the GOP has utterly lost its mind.
Wanting Trump is irrational, irresponsible and unpatriotic. You should be working to get someone other than Trump as the nominee.
So? It is not getting any better. I figured the 2020 matchup was about as shitty as it can get. Well, looks like I was wrong. Worse is for the same two to run again. We are looking at the same two elderly candidates, now four years older, and one of them has demonstrated to the world —through his attempts to steal the election (and beyond)— that he will throw anyone and anything (including the nation) under the bus if it pleases him.
Biden won because the people were Trump weary.
Biden primarily won because the electorate was duped into believing he would be a moderate who would lead in a non-partisan manner. That expectation was destroyed on day one when he veered hard left and has been stuck there since.... meekly following the instructions of his handlers.
He has done nothing since to show the citizens he cares about their concerns and has instead gone all in on keeping the Southern border wide open to non-citizens, kowtowing to special interest groups, and has made multiple bone-headed decisions that has left a large percentage of the people struggling to make ends meet. Minority citizens are starting to see the Democrats for the phonies that many of them are.
Yes.
Probably. But low info left wing voters might not know, or never acknowledge, that CNN and other left-wing media have similar polling stats.
Yeah, politics in the US has reached a tipping point. The 2016 election marks a definite change in the political landscape. Reagan/Clinton status quo politics can't hold the center any longer because Democrats' have elevated every issue to the status of crisis. Democrats' expedient acceptance (if not acquiescent support) of political violence during the Trump administration created expectations that could not be fulfilled without destroying government. Biden's own autocratic handling of the pandemic really did damage the economy and botched up the recovery. Biden's overall policy performance has been anything but a success for the bottom 80 pct of income brackets.
BLM flamed out. Liberals didn't seem to realize that a brown majority would, of necessity, become more conservative. There's not enough money left for Democrats' to lie about redistribution; that socialist wet dream has gone bankrupt. (Notice that Democrats aren't talking so much about taxing the rich any longer? Democrats have dropped redistribution for the Obama idea of direct distribution because deficits don't matter.) Voters are growing more worried about the United States and care less about NATO, Russia, China, or cold war nonsense.
The unbiased media tells us, with certainty, that voters are worried that Biden is too old. But another unspoken worry is that Biden's politics has become obsolete. Voters are losing faith in the status quo. The 2024 election will mark the end of a political era. Biden is going to lose even if he is reelected because the country is turning the page on Biden's politics.