Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.
A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.
The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.
Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.
Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.
"I think we've been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea" that crime is rising," Asher said. "It's just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role."
The FBI's quarterly numbers cover about 78% of the U.S. population and don't give as full a picture as the more comprehensive annual report the FBI puts out once a year. But Asher said the quarterly reports in the past have hewed fairly close to the annual ones.
The most recent annual report, released in October, covered 94% of the country and found that violent crime in 2022 fell back to pre-pandemic levels, with murder dropping 6.1%.
Asher maintains a separate database of murder in big cities which found that murder is down 12.7 percent this year, after rising during the pandemic.
Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966, Asher found, while Baltimore and St Louis are on track to post the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade. A few cities, including Memphis and Washington DC, are still seeing increases in their murder rates, but they are outliers.
FBI data doesn't have a separate category for retail theft. It falls under "larceny," which declined overall last year, according to the latest numbers. Retail theft is widely believed to have skyrocketed in some cities, and the industry says it is at "unprecedented" levels. But the data doesn't necessarily support that thesis.
FBI numbers are not the only measure of crime. The annual Justice Department survey of criminal victimization in 2022 found that a lot of crime goes unreported, and that more people reported being victims of violent crime in 2022 than in 2021. But Asher has documented questions about that survey's methodology.
So why are Americans' perceptions about crime so different from the apparent reality? Asher believes there is a measure of partisanship at work — Republicans are more ready to believe crime is increasing while Democrats hold the White House — but he largely chalks it up to media consumption.
"My neighbors never post on NextDoor how many thousands of packages they successfully receive," he wrote recently. "Only video of the one that randomly got swiped."
Asher and other analysts say the natural tendency of the news media to highlight disturbing crime stories — and the tendency of those stories to go viral on social media — presents a false but persuasive picture.
Videos of flash mobs on shop lifting sprees or carjackings in broad day light are more ubiquitous, even if those crimes are not.
"These outlier incidents become the glue people rely on when guesstimating whether crime is up or down," he wrote.
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"Videos of flash mobs on shop lifting sprees or carjackings in broad day light are more ubiquitous, even if those crimes are not."
NT has more than a few seeders willing to pour accelerants on the flames. Politics has moved from hardball to gasball.
I agree, continuing with the narrative to not believe your eyes but what Biden or the liberal media tells you is a great big gasball, maybe even a shartball.
Crime rates are in fact heavily dependent on what part of the country one lives in.
As well as if you live in a city or a rural area. Some cities are just worse than others when it comes to crime.
Yep.
True.
But in any given part of the country-- have crime rates in the same areas been rising or falling?
Why do you think that the criminals are reading these pages?
You are the wise and snarky visage in the moon peering down on the great unwashed, you tell me.
I don’t think they do, not enough pictures.
Why do you think that the criminals are reading these pages?
Heck, most of those ne'er-do-wells are probably illiterate anyway!
maga crime seems to have spiked between election day 11/20 and 1/20/21.
Crime is rising in big blue cities. In some of those cities certain crimes are no longer listed as crimes and in some of those cities the Police Departments have been reluctant to turn over figures to the FBI:
No penalty for shoplifting under $950 in California - here's the brazen result - Michael Smith News
Cities nationwide not reporting crime data to FBI (newsnationnow.com)
This article is at best skewed and at worst is propaganda.
Voted down.
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When cops don't or can't do anything people just stop reporting crime. Also in high crime cities it's often police policy to discourage people from actually filing a report, if the numbers make them look bad they just want better numbers.
"Retail theft is widely believed to have skyrocketed in some cities, and the industry says it is at "unprecedented" levels. But the data doesn't necessarily support that thesis."
Stores closing due to safety concerns about their employees and retail theft would support that thesis
"The annual Justice Department survey of criminal victimization in 2022 found that a lot of crime goes unreported, and that more people reported being victims of violent crime in 2022 than in 2021. But Asher has documented questions about that survey's methodology."
So when you don't like the results question the methodology.
How is that any better than never questioning methodology when you like the results?
Ask the author of the article.
The author did not make the claim, you did.
Why don't you ask businesses (especially retailers) what they think about the crime rates in certain areas.
That is reality. Not some doctored government report.
Actually I never said anything about never questioning methodology when you like the results. But I did notice the author never questioned anything he liked.
So, retailers in select large cities are closing stores because crime is decreasing? Sorry, not buying it. And, somehow, illegally entering the United States has never been a crime.
We're supposed to trust the FBI giving a grade to itself? With a neoliberal Democrat running the show?
Well Biden and his minions keep telling us what a great job he is doing so I guess grading yourself is now an accepted practice.
"grading yourself"?
Well I guess there's one thing that we can be grateful for-- Ex-President Trump (Peace Be Upon Him) would never do anything like that-- Nevah!!!!
Trump (Peace Be Upon Him) would never do anything like that-- Nevah!!!!
When proven wrong play the Trump card. Well done!/S
DEFLECTOR SHIELDS UP!!!
So someone mentions Biden and the go to is Trump. Cool
Sometimes they go to Reagan. Usually, it's when you point to the weakness of Biden.
I go to Reagan too.
As if you give 2 or more shytes as to who is running it as long as long as you can denounce a pet peeve.
Scripps News reported Sunday that 100,000 SNAP recipients had their benefits stolen. Is that one crime or 100,000 crimes? Meanwhile crazies on aircraft continue to endanger 100s of people. But evil black guns aren't responsible for those crimes so the statistics are unimportant. Do we need red flag laws to fly?
Liberals lambast corporate greed and Biden even used that as an excuse for inflation. But, conveniently, that highway robbery is legal so won't make the statistics look bad.
1.5 million people have illegally entered the country and have been allowed to stay. And the million that were turned back just aren't counted at all. And somehow illegally entering the country isn't a crime that is counted by the FBI; that's the responsibility of a different Federal agency.
How many people have given up on reporting crime? The unbiased liberal press doesn't want us to trust the cops. And if the police is defunded there's no place to report crimes anyway.
There really is a lot more crime in the United States than is being reported. But with a neoliberal Democrat running the show, the fact checkers have taken a holiday.
Here in the nation’s Capital, crime is rising from last year:
What do these figures even mean? Arrests or convictions. The Dems are traditionally soft on crime and the Biden administration, FBI, DOJ, and many liberal DA's have been shown to not even prosecute lots of serious crimes
Such as Jan. 6 treason?
[Deleted. It is not your place to moderate somebody else's article.]
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[From the CoC:]
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They are being charged, in fact over charged in many instances.
Unlike real criminals and the Summer of Love rioters. Democrats do love their criminals. Want to make sure they maintain the right to vote; and get back out on the street as soon as possible.
Just another deflection, and the J6 kerfuffle was a half assed riot that never really going, and was certainly not an insurrection or treasonous.
A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.
In addition to what's already been discussed here ... I wonder if the FBI figures include cyber-crimes-- ransomware attacks & various online scams. Because those have been skyrocketing!