Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don't believe it : NPR
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
February 12, 20245:01 AM ET
By
Karen Zamora
,
Ari Shapiro
,
Courtney Dorning
Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don't believe it
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What you see depends a lot on what you're looking at, according to one crime analyst. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images hide caption
toggle caption Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images
What you see depends a lot on what you're looking at, according to one crime analyst.
Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images
In 2020, the United States experienced one of its most dangerous years in decades.
The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020, according to FBI statistics. The overall violent crime rate, which includes murder, assault, robbery and rape, inched up around 5% in the same period.
But in 2023, crime in America looked very different.
"At some point in 2022 — at the end of 2022 or through 2023 — there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall," said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics.
In cities big and small, from both coasts, violence has dropped.
"The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too.
Yet when you ask people about crime in the country, the perception is it's getting a lot worse.
A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there was either a "very" or "extremely" serious crime problem — the highest in the poll's history going back to 2000.
So what's going on?
What the cities are seeing
What you see depends a lot on what you're looking at, according to Asher.
"There's never been a news story that said, 'There were no robberies yesterday, nobody really shoplifted at Walgreens,'" he said.
"Especially with murder, there's no doubt that it is falling at [a] really fast pace right now. And the only way that I find to discuss it with people is to talk about what the data says."
There are some outliers to this trend — murder rates are up in Washington, D.C., Memphis and Seattle, for example — and some nonviolent crimes like car theft are up in certain cities. But the national trend on violence is clear.
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NPR spoke to three local reporters — from Baltimore, San Francisco and Minneapolis — to better understand what is happening in their communities.
"We've seen two years now of crime incrementally going down, which I think is enough to say there's a positive trend there," said Andy Mannix, a crime and policing reporter for the Star Tribune in Minneapolis.
Rachel Swan, a breaking news and enterprise reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle , says there are "two really visible crises" in the downtown area: homelessness and open-air drug use.
"And honestly, people conflate that with crime, with street safety," she said. "One thing I'm starting to learn in reporting on public safety is that you can put numbers in front of people all day, and numbers just don't speak to people the way narrative does."
The perception of crime doesn't always match the reality. Kena Netancur/AFP via Getty Images hide caption
toggle caption Kena Netancur/AFP via Getty Images
In Baltimore — a city that's battled a perception of being dangerous — it's a similar story.
Lee Sanderlin is an enterprise reporter with The Baltimore Banner and says there are pockets of violent crime — but that's not the case for the entire city.
"That's a battle that the city's leaders have had to fight with certain media outlets, with residents," Sanderlin said. "People who don't live in Baltimore, who live out in Baltimore County or neighboring counties, they certainly have a perception."
Unraveling the reasons
Asher, the crime analyst, says there is no one reason why violent crime is going down.
"It's a really hard question to answer, and I always caveat my answer with [saying that] criminologists still aren't sure why violent crime went down in the '90s," he said. "We can kind of point to what some of the ingredients probably are even if we can't take the cake and tell you what the exact recipe is."
For cities like San Francisco, Baltimore and Minneapolis, there may be different factors at play. And in some instances, it comes as the number of police officers declines too.
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Baltimore police are chronically short of their recruitment goal, and as of last September had more than 750 vacant positions, according to a state audit report.
"Our new police commissioner has been pretty open about the fact ... that while they want to hire more officers, they have to do the job with the people they have," Sanderlin said.
In Minneapolis, police staffing has plummeted. According to the Star Tribune , there are about 560 active officers — down from nearly 900 in 2019. Mannix said the 2020 police killing of George Floyd resulted in an unprecedented exodus from the department.
He said that the juxtaposition of crime going down at the same time as police numbers dropped was "very confusing to a lot of people."
"The reality is there's a lot of things that factor into crime," he said. "It's not just how many police there are. That's definitely one variable."
In Minneapolis, the city is putting more financial resources into nontraditional policing initiatives. The Department of Neighborhood Safety, which addresses violence through a public health lens, received $22 million in the 2024 budget.
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In San Francisco, police there say they've been better at making arrests.
Meanwhile, Sanderlin said Baltimore voted for a new prosecutor who vowed to be tough on crime; the police say they are targeting violent hotspots; and the mayor's office is connecting would-be offenders with housing assistance and employment.
"Put all of that in the blender with a generally better economy, more people are sort of getting back to a pre-pandemic way of life, and that probably has something to do with it," Sanderlin said.
But changing the view of crime is about playing the long game, he added.
"Crime affects people very personally. The only way to get people to change their perceptions on a macro scale is for progress to continue."
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Interesting, but not surprising - violent crime is declining even in cites that have lower police presence.
gee, I wonder if removing a criminal from office had anything to do with crime diminishing. the timing sure is coincidental...
Interesting in what people believe and what is reality.
People will find what they are looking for. If its evidence of violence or evidence of peace. We don't live in bubbles, but we often get our information spoon fed to us that way.
Dallas, Texas crime stats: Trends are down, but how? | wfaa.com
City of Fort Worth gives update on 2023 crimes - CBS Texas (cbsnews.com)
Violent crime in Houston has been trending downward over the last year, new HPD data shows – Houston Public Media
Even on the site of the "invasion at the border"
Crime in McAllen on downward trend in 2023 | MyRGV.com
GigaFact: El Paso is one of the nation’s safest large cities - El Paso Matters
Brownsville ranks as one of the top 25 safest cities in America | KVEO-TV (valleycentral.com)
This being an election year, will anyone pay attention?
Not in Texas...
... because all the major criminals hold elected offices?
Here in the nation’s capital, 2023 homicides were up 35 % from 2022. Robberies were up 67%. Motor vehicle theft 82%.
“It’s been a tough year,” Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) said “There is no doubt about that.”
Black residents in the District’s suffered the most, especially east of the Anacostia River.
That's in the article. DC, Seattle and a specific part of Baltimore.
10 Trends That Have Changed Philadelphia in 10 Years | The Pew Charitable Trusts (pewtrusts.org)
Crime rate is lowest since 1970
Car jackings here in the District, are up for 6 years in a row. 2023 saw nearly 1,000 reported.
That's also mentioned in the article.
Non-violent crime has been dropping for a long time. Now violent crime is too.
It's a pity that Americans are unaware.
Stories using manipulated data spread by the progressives fool no one, especially the victims
Prove they are manipulated or troll elsewhere.
When you stop charging people with violent crimes and downgrade them to misdemeanors it is easy to manipulate the data.
How many murders get downgraded to misdemeanors? Do you have stats to prove your claim?
I've got a wish list...
Better pack a lunch.
You’ll need it …...
Think they will make it to lunch?
Unknown, I’m just trying to provide some helpful advise to one of my friends on the left.
...wrong again.
Crime was higher in the 80s and 90s. The reason a lot of people today don't realize this is because of social media. And cameras everywhere. It probably wont really be possible to correct this impression any time in the near future.
This is another one of those fun with statistic things progressive love to use.
Total violent crime was up 75% from 21 to 22. That’s a lot. So unless crime was down a similar number in 23, it’s still up over time.
The eye test is all you need. People aren’t comfortable in their own cities. Maybe much of this is media driven but I don’t remember such a ground swell like that in the 80’s and 90’s.
Read the article.
Because the news cycle is 24/7 and opinion is now considered "news" and drama gets clicks.
We didn't have social media in the 80's and 90's like we do now AND we didn't have opinion pieces taking over front pages on media websites like we do now.
Violent Crime Is Dropping Fast In The U.S.
That's an easy claim when cities like LA and NYC didn't report to their crime statistics to the FBI.
Part of the Soros shuffle ……
Can you tell me when they stopped reporting? Is the non-reporting a new thing? If not then your post is only tangentially relevant.
I would suggest Congress bake in a requirement for consistent and accurate reporting into federal policing funds.
Nearly one-third of law enforcement agencies are missing from the FBI’s 2022 crime statistics. Use our tables to check on your state and local agencies.
From your link. A great example of what Jeremy is talking about. Monroe County has a higher occurrence of crime than much of the state.
tends to lower that crime rate when you do that.
Only around half of violent crime is reported to police.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/
So we can say that crime has dropped in the cities that report and they others we have no idea if it went up down or sideways.
Florida is quite famous for not reporting, half the population of Florida is left out because of non-reporting...Damn Soros at work here, oh wait we have the ''Woke Warrior'' DeSantis.
Is it DeSantis or was Fla that way before he got there?
If Soros got thrown into the mix I, with great relish threw DeSantis into the mix.
Sweet or dill …… ?
Those same populists pundits crying about how bad crime is are so quick to point out how bad reporting is when the numbers we do have show they are lying.
There is no good reason for non reporting of crime. Trying to hide a crime problem is the worst reason unless of course you are the Chamber of Commerce.
I agree. As I said up @10.2
Yep, if I were king, reporting would be mandatory. Non reporting would be penalized.
Report reality. Let the chips fall where they may.
Absolutely.
Indeed, that includes Miami Police Department, the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office, and the St. Petersburg Police Department as significant examples. Two issues, Florida lags in the transition to the new FBI data collection system and the Governor can't force local LEOs to report using it.
It's a bit deeper and more complex than that Drinker.
Did DeSantos use incomplete data to his advantage, absolutely. Similar to twisting incomplete and disconnected economic data to government policy.