Trump Leading Biden in Seven Swing States
Category: News & Politics
Via: robert-in-ohio • 9 months ago • 7 commentsBy: Story by Lauren Sforza
As we near Super Tuesday and the November election inches closer, political polling will become more important, if for no other reason that it will mold political messaging for both major party candidates.
Biden is too old!
Trump is dangerous!
Not exactly the commentary you want to hear when citizens are asked about the candidates presented by the two major political parties in our country. But that is what it has come unfortunately.
If Biden were to lose these swing states, could he possibly win the election?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
F ormer President Trump is pulling more support than President Biden in at least seven swing states that are likely going to determine the election, a new survey found.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll , released this week, found Biden trailing Trump in several critical states — including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin — when voters were asked who they would support in a hypothetical general election. Large shares of the respondents voiced concerns with Biden’s age, while a significant percentage said Trump was dangerous.
Across all seven states, 48 percent of voters said they would back Trump and 43 percent would back Biden. Trump’s lead appeared to be the strongest in North Carolina, where he is 9 points ahead of Biden — bringing in 50 percent support compared to Biden’s 41 percent.
The Tar Heel State, which Trump won in the 2020 election, was the only state the former president garnered at least 50 percent of support in the new survey. Neither candidate clinched a majority show of support in any of the other swing states.
Trump maintained a 6-point lead over Biden in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the recent poll — four states that Biden carried in 2020.
The gap is closer in Wisconsin and Michigan — which Biden also won in the last presidential election. In the Badger State, Biden trails the Republican presidential front-runner by 4 percentage points and trails him by 2 percentage points in the Great Lakes State — where Trump has 46 percent of support and Biden has 44 percent.
Bloomberg News noted that overall, about 8 in 10 voters across all states said Biden was too old and nearly 6 in 10 voters labeled Trump as dangerous. Voters were also more likely to describe the former president as mentally fit than the incumbent, the poll found.
The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll was conducted online between Feb. 12-20 and surveyed 4,955 registered voters in the seven swing states. The margin of error in all states was 1 percentage point.
When broken down by state, the margin of error is 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
The poll results also come on the heels of the 2024 Michigan presidential primary — where both party front-runners won their respective contests.
Debate the importance of swing states in this election, the increased relevance of polls as the election nears and why or why not people should be concerned about or happy with these poll results.
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From the article
Bloomberg News noted that overall, about 8 in 10 voters across all states said Biden was too old and nearly 6 in 10 voters labeled Trump as dangerous. Voters were also more likely to describe the former president as mentally fit than the incumbent, the poll found.
cross all seven states, 48 percent of voters said they would back Trump and 43 percent would back Biden. Trump’s lead appeared to be the strongest in North Carolina, where he is 9 points ahead of Biden — bringing in 50 percent support compared to Biden’s 41 percent.
Michigan will be interesting to watch in the general. The 'uncommitted' vote was larger in counties that overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020.
Of course eight months can be an eternity in politics but IMO this will be something to watch in November.
Snuffy
Good points
In my view, if some of the "not committed" vote for Trump, some of them for u/i third party candidates and some of them just stay home in disgust that it could affect the Micgan results a lot more than people think.
Polls are similar early in 2020 with about 42-43% for Trump and for Biden. As in 2020 those are Trump's maximum and Biden's base numbers. Independents will break heavily for Biden. Women and minorities will give Biden a huge victory November 5th...
President Biden will win by over 10,000,000 votes.
Yeah okay..............
I am sure he will, just not sure that is in the real world.
jbb
Interesting prediction, not impossible for sure but I think it will be a little closer but that Biden is still the favorite of the two despite the early polls.