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The Truth About Human Population Decline

  

Category:  History & Sociology

Via:  outis  •  3 months ago  •  23 comments

By:   Jennifer D. Sciubba

The Truth About Human Population Decline



With birth rates falling, the worldwide human population is getting older and smaller.


original

When I was a kid, a long time ago, we learned that the Earth would one day be over-populated, with all sorts of dire consequences.

This is one of those cases where circumstances change fairly rapidly, but public perception is much slower.

So... yes, there's a coming population problem: not enough people. 






S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


According to traditional thinking, this spells a future of labor shortages, bankrupt social security systems and overall economic collapse. Before you panic about the end of life as we know it, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba has a thoughtful playbook for managing the new normal – including ideas on the future of work and migration – and a reminder that a resilient future relies on present-day action.



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Outis
Freshman Principal
1  seeder  Outis    3 months ago

Personally, I doubt there would be any problem at all, if wealth were equitably distributed.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
1.1  Greg Jones  replied to  Outis @1    3 months ago
"if wealth were equitably distributed."
Can you explain your reasoning on this?
Does it go something like this...."from each according to his ability, to each according to his need."
Hasn't that been tried and failed repeatedly?

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.1.1  TᵢG  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1    3 months ago

Since this happens all the time in your comments, I am going to interject.

When you hit Enter on a line that is a quote, the quote continues on the next line.    Thus what you write appears like a quote.   Just click the quote button (far left) on the toolbar and it will unquote the line you just typed.

 
 
 
Outis
Freshman Principal
1.1.2  seeder  Outis  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1    3 months ago
Does it go something like this

No.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.1.3  TᵢG  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1    3 months ago
Does it go something like this...."from each according to his ability, to each according to his need."

What does that mean to you?

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.1.4  devangelical  replied to  TᵢG @1.1.1    3 months ago

good luck with that ...

 
 
 
cjcold
Professor Quiet
2  cjcold    3 months ago

There are still far too many folk on the planet.

Anthropogenic CO2 and methane levels are way too high.

We're way past the point of no return.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3  TᵢG    3 months ago

If true, this is a problem that is self-correcting.    The problem is overpopulation.   The growth of AI-based technology complements a reduction in the population.

Fewer people immediately works in favor of mitigating climate change.

Going from 8+ billion down to 4+ billion, for example, through natural attrition seems like a good thing to me.

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
3.1  GregTx  replied to  TᵢG @3    3 months ago

What kind of natural attrition do you think causes that kind of loss?

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.1.1  TᵢG  replied to  GregTx @3.1    3 months ago

Per the video, people are having fewer babies.    Why is a multi-faceted answer.   Part of it is the reduction in the philosophy that couples should have many babies.   Part is the availability of contraceptives.   Part is the cost of raising a family (dissuades forward thinking people).    Part, it seems, is that younger people are not as interested in raising families (for whatever reason) in comparison to their ancestors.

Frankly I find this to be surprising.    Having not researched this (yet) I am just taking the speaker at her word.

 
 
 
Outis
Freshman Principal
3.1.2  seeder  Outis  replied to  TᵢG @3.1.1    3 months ago

I was aware of the drop in natality in tje developed world, but not of the looming drop even in Africa. 

 
 
 
cjcold
Professor Quiet
3.2  cjcold  replied to  TᵢG @3    3 months ago

We're way past any correction. If we completely stopped polluting now it would take 50 years to get us down to a non-lethal level.

Decades of Koch AGW denial fascism have doomed this planet.   

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.1  TᵢG  replied to  cjcold @3.2    3 months ago

I think in terms of what we can do because thinking we are doomed (i.e. no point doing anything) will not accomplish anything.   

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.2.2  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  cjcold @3.2    3 months ago
Decades of Koch AGW denial fascism have doomed this planet

Show us your math.

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
3.2.3  Sparty On  replied to  Drinker of the Wry @3.2.2    3 months ago

2+2=5?

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
3.2.4  Greg Jones  replied to  cjcold @3.2    3 months ago
"We're way past any correction. If we completely stopped polluting now it would take 50 years to get us down to a non-lethal level." What credible proof do you have of this?
Where did you pick up this erroneous information?
 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
4  Sean Treacy    3 months ago

depopulation is a much bigger problem than over population.  The economic consequences  will be disastrous.  

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1  TᵢG  replied to  Sean Treacy @4    3 months ago

Depopulation works well with technology.    The point where I agree with you is in areas that require massive amounts of human labor that cannot be realistically automated.   

A lot of this boils down to timing.   If the rate of technology is near the rate of depopulation this could wind up being much better than having massive unemployment due to a lack of decent jobs.

Realistically, it is best for population to decrease in developed nations with the less-developed nations lagging behind in this regard.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
5  Nerm_L    3 months ago

Gee, Jennifer Sciubba has created a narrative based upon one graph.  She actually didn't say anything meaningful.  TED has devolved to infotainment and propaganda.  

What did everyone think would happen with  greater access to birth control, abortion, and gender confusion?  A declining birth rate isn't very informative concerning the rate of pregnancies.  The global population certainly hasn't become more prudish; there's sex everywhere today.  A declining birth rate is a direct result of scientific progress and social engineering.  How could the great progressive thinkers have missed the inevitable consequences?  This is what we wanted, worked for, and apparently have achieved.  Too late to complain about the consequences now.

Scuibba seemingly attempts to exploit and, possibly, revive a neoliberal worldview that is becoming irrelevant.  The tried-and-true factually correct misinformation utilized by activists just doesn't have the same impact today.  People have either become more savvy to this type of exploitation or they really don't care anymore.   Everyone needs to understand that the neoliberal worldview depends upon inflationary exploitation of a growing human population.  The neoliberal worldview is why the rich must inevitably get richer.  Neoliberal social prescriptions simply cannot work with a declining population size.  Social security isn't in trouble because of age demographics; inflation has destroyed the value of money accumulated to address that problem.  The Boomers really did save for the future but the neoliberals sucked all the value out of those savings.  And the great progressive thinkers were oblivious to those consequences, too.

We are witnessing the fruition of progressive planning and social engineering that began in the 1960s.  And the world allowed neoliberals to exploit that progressive optimism with the promise of prosperity without consequences.  But there isn't a free lunch.  

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
6  charger 383    3 months ago

Overpopulation is the biggest problem we have and it makes all other problems worse.  I have been saying that for a long time here. .

Quality not quantity.   

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
6.1  devangelical  replied to  charger 383 @6    3 months ago

just let me know, I've got a few suggestions on culling the herds...

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
6.1.1  charger 383  replied to  devangelical @6.1    3 months ago

They wouldn't like your or my ideas, although they may overlap 

 
 
 
Igknorantzruls
Freshman Quiet
6.1.2  Igknorantzruls  replied to  devangelical @6.1    3 months ago
a few suggestions on culling the herds..

The Repubs tried to test this theory and wound up calling it The Test ta Cull  the herd...They claim they had a ball, and a very happy ending to the test was had by many, especially those that foresaw their own skin in the game. . Helmets with padded leather chin straps were required to participate in the test ta cull the herd. The padded chin straps proved most valuable to absorb the inertia from creating many a black and blue chin up and held high after enough balls had been beaten off  that chin , to satisfy a Chinese pseudo phoney bookem Dannoh

 
 

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