Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Latest Polls in 2024 Presidential Election - The New York Times
Category: News & Politics
Via: jbb • 4 months ago • 1 commentsBy: Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar (nytimes)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Updated Aug. 26, 2024 New polls See all '
| Morning Consult | Harris +4 |
| Echelon Insights | Trump +1 |
| Kaplan Strategies | Harris +7 |
Morning ConsultHarris +4Echelon InsightsTrump +1Kaplan StrategiesHarris +7See all '
Who's leading the polls?
Harris vs. Trump With Kennedy
National polling average
July Aug. Sept. Oct. Election day 30% 40% 50% Aug. 2646%TrumpTrump49%HarrisHarris
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
As August winds down and the heat of campaign season begins, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are neck-and-neck in our averages across the key swing states that will decide the election this fall, even as Harris has a small lead in most national polls. Candidates routinely get a post-convention polling bounce, and Harris has already been riding the momentum of announcing her own candidacy and her vice-presidential pick. The coming weeks will tell us if she can sustain this wave of support. Updated Aug. 26
July Aug. 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump47%HarrisHarris49% 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump47%HarrisHarris49% July Aug. 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump48%HarrisHarris49% 30% 40% 50% HarrisHarris47%TrumpTrump47% July Aug. 30% 40% 50% HarrisHarris46%TrumpTrump50%
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
As August winds down and the heat of campaign season begins, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are neck-and-neck in our averages across the key swing states that will decide the election this fall, even as Harris has a small lead in most national polls. Candidates routinely get a post-convention polling bounce, and Harris has already been riding the momentum of announcing her own candidacy and her vice-presidential pick. The coming weeks will tell us if she can sustain this wave of support. Updated Aug. 26
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from "select pollsters," which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
All national and state polls———National polls———All key state pollsArizonaGeorgiaMichiganMinnesotaNevadaNorth CarolinaPennsylvaniaVirginiaWisconsin———AlabamaAlaskaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontWashingtonWest VirginiaWyoming All national and state polls———National polls———All key state pollsArizonaGeorgiaMichiganMinnesotaNevadaNorth CarolinaPennsylvaniaVirginiaWisconsin———AlabamaAlaskaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontWashingtonWest VirginiaWyoming All pollsters Select pollsters Harris vs. Trump With Kennedy
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Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by "select pollsters" are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
National polling averageArizona polling averageGeorgia polling averageMichigan polling averagePennsylvania polling averageWisconsin polling average R+6 R+3 Even D+3 D+6 May 30Trump convictedJune 27DebateJuly 21Biden leaves raceBiden vs. TrumpBiden vs. Trump+3TrumpTrumpHarris vs. TrumpHarris vs. Trump+3HarrisHarris
Albert SunGraphics reporter
President Biden's poor debate performance in June shook up a race that had been relatively stable in the polls. After the debate and the assassination attempt against Trump, the national polling average widened to Trump +3 before Biden announced he would leave the race. As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground.
Note: This page previously showed polls of the matchup between Biden and Trump. The data below is archived as of July 21. Archived
Biden trailed Trump in the polls
Biden vs. Trump With Kennedy
National polling average
June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Election day 30% 40% 50% July 2144%BidenBiden47%TrumpTrump
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June's presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.
June July 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump44%BidenBiden47% 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump46%BidenBiden47% June July 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden44%TrumpTrump48% 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden44%TrumpTrump48% June July 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden42%TrumpTrump47% 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden42%TrumpTrump48% June July 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden42%TrumpTrump48% 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden42%TrumpTrump48% June July 30% 40% 50% BidenBiden41%TrumpTrump48%
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June's presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.
Archived
How the averages changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.
Since the debate Since Trump conviction
| July 21 margin |
polls | D+4 Even R+4 R+8 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Trump +3 | 62 | +2 |
| Minn. | Biden +4 | 0 | No new polls |
| Va. | Biden +1 | 5 | No change |
| Wis. | Trump +4 | 9 | +3 |
| Pa. | Trump +5 | 11 | +3 |
| Mich. | Trump +5 | 8 | +3 |
| N.C. | Trump +6 | 4 | +1 |
| Ariz. | Trump +7 | 7 | +2 |
| Ga. | Trump +7 | 7 | +2 |
| Nev. | Trump +7 | 6 | +3 |
Albert SunGraphics reporter
In the weeks after the debate, Biden's position deteriorated in three states crucial to his re-election — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as in other swing states where he had already been trailing by four to five points.
Archived
Explore Electoral College scenarios
In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, both candidates had states they could count on, but they needed more to get to 270 electoral votes. There were nine key states in the middle where the vote was close in 2020 or polling was close this year.
Biden 226
Trump 312
10 Minn. +4 13 Va. +1 10 Wis. +4 19 Pa. +5 15 Mich. +5 16 N.C. +6 11 Ariz. +7 16 Ga. +7 6 Nev. +7 270
If the polls had changed, or missed, in Biden's favorBiden had a path: He trailed in key states, but a shift or polling miss in his favor would not have been impossible, though of course it was not guaranteed.
Biden 270
Trump 268
10 Minn. 13 Va. 10 Wis. 19 Pa. 15 Mich. 16 N.C. 11 Ariz. 16 Ga. 6 Nev. 270 Biden was within 5 points of the lead in these states.
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Biden's path to the presidency narrowed as his standing in the swing-state polls dropped, most likely a factor in his decision to drop out of the race.
Archived
How wrong might the polls be?
It's normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state's biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the final Biden vs. Trump polling averages.
| Minn. | 6 pts. (2016) | Range of polling miss July 21 poll average |
|---|---|---|
| Va. | 3 pts. (2012) | |
| Wis. | 9 pts. (2020) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts. (2022) | |
| Mich. | 6 pts. (2022) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts. (2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts. (2022) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts. (2016) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts. (2012) |
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Might the polls have been wrong, or have underestimated support for Biden? It's possible, but his deficit was nearing the edges of the biggest polling misses in recent elections. Assuming the polls did not change before Election Day, he would have needed the polling margins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to miss by at least five points in his favor.
Archived
All Biden vs. Trump polls
All national and state polls———National polls———All key state pollsArizonaGeorgiaMichiganMinnesotaNevadaNorth CarolinaPennsylvaniaVirginiaWisconsin———AlabamaAlaskaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontWashingtonWest VirginiaWyoming All national and state polls———National polls———All key state pollsArizonaGeorgiaMichiganMinnesotaNevadaNorth CarolinaPennsylvaniaVirginiaWisconsin———AlabamaAlaskaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontWashingtonWest VirginiaWyoming All pollsters Select pollsters Biden vs. Trump With Kennedy
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Nate CohnChief political analyst
Before bowing out of the race, Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls for essentially 10 straight months.
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About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be "select pollsters," so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
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