Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Latest Polls in 2024 Presidential Election - The New York Times
Category: News & Politics
Via: jbb • 4 months ago • 8 commentsBy: Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar (nytimes)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Updated Sept. 4, 2024 New polls See all '
| ActiVote | Harris +2 |
| TIPP Insights | Harris +3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Harris +2 |
Who's leading the polls?
National polling average
Aug. Sept. Oct. Election Day 30% 40% 50% Sept. 44%Kennedy 46%Trump 49%Harris
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
We are entering the heat of the campaign, and the race between Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump remains incredibly close by any measure. We've updated these pages to combine our two previous averages, one of which tracked polls that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr., into one. Either way, neither candidate has a discernible lead in the key battleground states. Updated Sept. 3
Wisconsin '
Aug. Sept. 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump47%HarrisHarris49%
Michigan '
30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump46%HarrisHarris48%
Pennsylvania '
Aug. Sept. 30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump48%HarrisHarris49%
Nevada '
30% 40% 50% TrumpTrump48%HarrisHarris48%
Georgia '
Aug. Sept. 30% 40% 50% HarrisHarris48%TrumpTrump48%
North Carolina '
30% 40% 50% KennedyKennedy3%HarrisHarris48%TrumpTrump48%
Arizona '
Aug. Sept. 30% 40% 50% HarrisHarris48%TrumpTrump48%
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
We are entering the heat of the campaign, and the race between Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump remains incredibly close by any measure. We've updated these pages to combine our two previous averages, one of which tracked polls that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr., into one. Either way, neither candidate has a discernible lead in the key battleground states. Updated Sept. 3
Explore Electoral College scenarios
Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let's zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020.
Harris 276
Trump 262
10 Wis. +2 15 Mich. +2 19 Pa. <1 6 Nev. <1 16 Ga. <1 16 N.C. <1 11 Ariz. <1 270
If the polls change, or miss, in Trump's favorTrump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him. A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
Harris 251
Trump 287
10 Wis. 15 Mich. 19 Pa. 6 Nev. 16 Ga. 16 N.C. 11 Ariz. 270 Trump is within 1 point of the lead in these states.
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Polls in seven key battleground states are very close, and flipping just a state or two could lead to either candidate's victory. Many outcomes are possible: Since the results in states often move together, and polls often miss in the same direction, it would take only a small shift — or polling miss — in either candidate's favor to turn a narrow win in the Electoral College into a victory with more than 300 electoral votes.
How wrong might the polls be?
It's normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state's biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
| Wis. | 9 pts. (2020) | Range of polling miss Current poll average |
|---|---|---|
| Mich. | 6 pts. (2022) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts. (2022) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts. (2012) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts. (2016) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts. (2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts. (2022) |
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today's polls may be off.
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from "select pollsters," which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a diamond. You can filter by state and toggle to show only select pollsters.
All national and state polls———National polls———All key state pollsArizonaGeorgiaMichiganNevadaNorth CarolinaPennsylvaniaWisconsin———AlabamaAlaskaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWyoming All pollsters Select pollsters
| Loading... |
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
"Select pollsters" have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
National polling averageArizona polling averageGeorgia polling averageMichigan polling averageNorth Carolina polling averageNevada polling averagePennsylvania polling averageWisconsin polling average R+6 R+3 Even D+3 D+6 May 30Trump convictedJune 27DebateJuly 21Biden leaves raceAug. 19Democratic conventionBiden vs. Trump +3Trump Harris vs. Trump +3Harris
Albert SunGraphics reporter
President Biden's poor debate performance in June shook up a race that had been relatively stable in the polls. After the debate and the assassination attempt against Trump, the national polling average widened to Trump +3 before Biden announced he would leave the race. As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground.
How the averages have changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Harris; to the right, for Trump.
Since Democratic convention Since Biden dropped out
| Current margin |
polls | D+4 Even R+4 R+8 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Harris +3 | 18 | +1 |
| Wis. | Harris +2 | 5 | <1 |
| Mich. | Harris +2 | 7 | <1 |
| Pa. | Harris <1 | 7 | No change |
| Nev. | Harris <1 | 6 | +3 |
| Ga. | Trump <1 | 6 | +3 |
| N.C. | Trump <1 | 7 | No change |
| Ariz. | Trump <1 | 6 | <1 |
Nate CohnChief political analyst
In a short amount of time, Harris has completely transformed the 2024 presidential election. If there's a risk in her current numbers, it's that she's riding a polling "bounce" — a political sugar high, fueled by positive but unsustainable event-driven media coverage. The next question is whether her support will be resilient enough to withstand the difficulties ahead.
View polling by state
- National
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- Virginia
- Minnesota
- Biden vs. Trump (archived)
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be "select pollsters," so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
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Jim Jones was actually a progressive from San Francisco.
"Having moved his flock to northern California in the 1960s, Jones began leveraging their labor toward political ends, volunteering them for protests or electioneering on behalf of friendly aspirants to public office. Gaining the respect of San Francisco’s political class, Jones became a player in his own right. Many gave him credit for Moscone’s tight victory in the 1975 mayoral runoff, and he was appointed head of the San Francisco Housing Authority. Praised as a hero of social justice and a crusader for racial equality, Jones became an important figure in Democratic politics.
Among his advocates was Harvey Milk, also a newcomer to San Francisco. Milk, formerly a Goldwater Republican, became politically radical in California and repeatedly sought election to office as an outsider to the political machine. Milk attended services at Peoples Temple dozens of times, and wrote effusive letters to Jones. “Such greatness I have found in Jim Jones’s Peoples Temple,” Milk proclaimed.
Milk wasn’t Jones’s only fan. Many powerful people—Governor Jerry Brown, columnist Herb Caen, and Vice President Walter Mondale, to name a few—sought Jones’s blessings and expressed admiration for his dedication to racial equality and a better world..."
Progressive or conservative doesn't matter. Jim Jones was a cult leader whose followers worshipped him and were willing to do anything for him including die.
What do we see here?
From top to bottom :
Someone beclowning himself for Trump
Someone praising Trump like you would praise the lord.
A golden idol of Trump which was wheeled in as if it were the golden calf from the Bible
and a man bowing down on his knees presumably in thanks for the existence of Donald Trump
-
enough said.
He was no Progressive. Anyone who knows the true history of that conman, fraud, charlatan and killer, knows better.
So true of the cult of the maga. They'd drink the Kool Aid if he told them to. Jim Jones had the parents kill the children first and then when they had no reason to live killed themselves but a lot of those people were murdered by Jim Jones and IMHO he murdered them all with his lies and removing them from the outside world. He didn't believe the bible or the word of the Lord or in the Democrat/Progressive/Liberal movement. The People's Temple was his way to gain power and notoriety. He invited Progressive leaders of the time to speak to the temple members but then he would lie and twist and subvert their message, much like the former 'president' convicted felon and rapist. He held fake healings to draw in members and a fake assassination attempt where he said he healed himself.
Many parallels to the former 'president' and Jones. Charlatan, conman, fraud, cult leader.
You should look up his complete history for the truth. He was no man of god. That was way to cultivate his cult. He thrived on the adoration and the adulation.
Meanwhile, getting back to reality.
Trump Keeps Gaining on Harris in This Crucial Election Tracker (townhall.com)
Back to reality?
Really?
The Party of Projection