US election polls 2024: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
BBC
Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.
The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is - will the result mean a second Donald Trump term or America's first woman president?
As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.
What do the polls say about who won the debate?
Just over 67 million people tuned in to watch Harris and Trump go head to head in the debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September. But what do the polls tell us about who won?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters who had heard at least something about the debate found that 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won. It also suggested Harris had a lead of five points over her rival nationally, 47% to 42% - up from 45% to 41% in August.
A YouGov poll of 1,400 adults in the US had similar conclusions - of those who had watched the debate, 55% said Harris won and 25% said Trump. Even so, it found no change in voting intentions, with Harris having the same lead of 46% to 45% as before the debate.
There was also no bump for Harris in a Morning Consult poll of 3,300 likely voters that put her lead at 50% to 45% - although Trump was down one point from 46% in their poll before the debate.
The data we have at the moment suggests that although a majority of those watching the debate felt Harris came out on top, her performance might not necessarily translate to more votes because so many Americans have already made their minds up on who they are supporting.
Who is leading national polls?
In the months leading up to Biden's decision to drop out of the race, polls consistently showed him trailing former president Trump. Although hypothetical at the time, several polls suggested Harris wouldn't fare much better.
But the race tightened after she hit the campaign trail and she developed a small lead over her rival in an average of national polls that she has maintained since. The latest national polling averages for the two candidates are shown below, rounded to the nearest whole number.
In the poll tracker chart below, the trend lines show how those averages have changed since Harris entered the race and the dots show the spread of the individual poll results.
While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election.
That's because the US uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
Who is winning in battleground states?
Right now, the polls are very tight in the seven battleground states, which makes it hard to know who is really leading the race. There are fewer state polls than national polls so we have less data to work with and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.
As is stands, recent polls suggest there is less than one percentage point separating the two candidates in several states. That includes Pennsylvania, which is key as it has the highest number of electoral votes on offer and therefore makes it easier for the winner to reach the 270 votes needed.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Joe Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states.
How are these averages created?
The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collect the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.
As part of their quality control, 538 only include polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).
Can we trust the polls?
At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other both nationally and in battleground states - and when the race is that close, it's very hard to predict winners.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population.
Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November.
Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.
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Harris leads Trump 50% to 45% as undecideds flock to Harris - Walz...
yeah, but I was hoping that trump still would have been sentenced for fraud on 9/18...
almost 2/3 of republicans think trump won the debate, and 1/4 of them think he should seize the gov't if he loses the election.
"Even so, it found no change in voting intentions, with Harris having the same lead of 46% to 45% as before the debate."
I wouldn't too excited just yet, a lot can happen between now and November 5th.
WATCH: Kamala Harris Completely Bombs Her First Solo Interview – RedState
BREAKING: Pennsylvania Court Ruling a Massive Election Integrity Win on Mail-In Ballots – RedState
Really, Greg, you pick RedState to provide objective reporting on a Democrat?
Confirmation bias.
There ya go TiG, dissing the source again, which left wingers seem to do a lot....to no effect.
Do you disagree with, or can you refute, anything that is said in the articles.
Don't blame me, I'm just the messenger. It's up to you to offer up a relevant comment.
Your linked article was fantasy. Anyone who tries to spin Harris’ interview as poor has no credibility.
The source is hard right biased and the linked article demonstrates its lack of objectivity.
Refuting your linked article is akin to refuting a claim that Trump really cares about the people of this nation. Some facts are blatantly obvious but will never be recognized by blind partisans.
Yep, you can say that again! If someone can't refute or offer a logical rebuttal, deflection and denial is the usual default
Since Biden withdrew Trump and his supporters have desperately tried to find something that would stick. They (and that includes you) continue to whiff.
After seeing Harris give many speeches and a solid presidential debate performance you are still trying to claim that Harris is a nitwit. Partisanship is an excellent way to believe that which is flat out untrue.
The key to this race is now turnout. Harris-Walz have the ability to inspire their supporters to vote. Harris-Walz is presidential, upbeat, organized, intelligent and energetic. Prevailing so well in the debate should energize her supporters even more.
In contrast, are Trump supporters more motivated to cast a vote for a nutcase who derails his own point to claim (stupidly and incorrectly) that legal Haitian immigrants are eating the pets of residents in Springfield, Ohio and that he would send them back to Venezuela? Or who claims that Harris is bussing in her crowds and paying them to attend?
Since when do rational voters allow this kind of irrationality in a presidential candidate? WTF is going on in the minds of those who would vote for Trump?
These people prefer Trump over Harris, but I doubt they will be as motivated as the Harris-Walz supporters given Trump is a nutcase (among many other things).
Trump also did himself no favors in his choice of running mate. Vance couldn't alienate women more if he tried. Republican support among women was already suffering due to the overturning of Roe. Now, the Trump/Vance ticket has made sure that women know that they are valued by GOP leaders only for the children they can produce. Childless families are deemed worthy of less power at the polls. Childless women are vilified. Post-menopausal women, regardless of their other accomplishments, location, or intent or ability to retire, are relegated to child-minders for fertile couples.
If you want to win elections, best not piss off half of the voting population.
Hard to explain the current polls. By any normal standards, Trump-Vance should be in trouble.
We just might experience another election where the polls suggest a tight race but the turnout tells a very different tale.
If that is true Sandy, why is the race, at this point, pretty much of a tie. Obviously, many women don't feel as you do.
WHat do you consider to be "any normal standards"?
I don't put much credence in polls.
In addition, while it may be an annoying cliche-- there's a lot of truth to this saying:
A lot can happen between now and Election day.
I've posted this before-- but IMNSHO, there's a lot of truth in this saying by a famous Yogi guru:
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
--Yogi Berra
The historical patterns (norms) of presidential elections.
Imagine any other nominee in our history saying what Trump (and even Vance) is saying. They would have been dismissed as irrational as we did with nutcases like Lyndon LaRouche.
Worse, these are the nominees for one of the major parties. Not some non-viable third party.