House, Senate Flip in New Election Forecast Model
Divided government - four more years of nothing getting done is not a good forecast for the country, but that is looking like what we are going to get.
Regardless of which candidate wins the White house, the Democrats and Republicans will be able to block all that each side wants to do in the way of major changes in the country.
Executive orders and court challenges and nothing really being accomplished.
It is beginning to be the order of the day in Wahingtob D.C.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Anew election forecast model suggests the Republican Party will control the Senate and the Democratic Party will control the House of Representatives after the November election – a reversal of the current balance of power in Congress.
According to the model by polling firm YouGov, which estimates every 2024 U.S. Senate and House election outcome in each congressional district, Republicans were given edges in 13 Senate seats on the ballot, and hold 38 seats not on the ballot – giving them 51 seats in the upper chamber. Members of the Democratic Party (or independents who align Democratic) were given advantages in 19 seats on the ballot, and hold 28 seats not on the ballot, totaling 47. Two seats – Arizona and Ohio were rated as "tossups."
As for the House of Representatives, YouGov said there was a 57 percent chance of a Democratic majority, and a 43 percent chance of a Republican majority.
To determine this, YouGov ran 3,000 simulations for each of the 435 House races. In 57 percent of simulations, the Democratic Party won a majority of seats, at least 218. YouGov said that in the median simulation, Democrats won 219 seats.
The pollster also said there was a wide range of plausible outcomes for the House race, as its model projected many races to be close.
Both YouGov's Senate and House models were based on 95,643 interviews conducted between August 23 and September 5, 2024.
"Whichever way it goes, it will mean a divided gov for the U.S. - this seems to be [something] voters have become used to," Andrew Moran, head of Criminology, Sociology, Politics and International Relations at London Metropolitan University told Newsweek.
"It will make it difficult for either presidential candidate to govern, and most likely will mean we will have continuation of the use of Executive Orders by the president to by-pass Congress (something we saw escalate under Obama who faced an obstinate Congress, and continued by Trump and Biden). If Trump is elected, he will also be a one-term president, which brings with it its own limitations," Moran said.
YouGov's Senate forecast was broadly consistent with a Senate race rating by the Cook Political Report, with a few exceptions.
Cook rated Minnesota and Virginia as solidly Democratic, whilst YouGov said they leaned Democratic. YouGov rated Maryland as safe Democratic, while Cook said it was likely.
The two organizations did differ on which states were considered tossups. Both gave this rating to Ohio, but whilst YouGov said the same of Arizona, Cook considered the Grand Canyon State Democratic leaning. Cook also rated Michigan as a tossup, but YouGov said the state leaned Democratic.
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Total division of the parties and consistent voting along party lines rather than on the legislation and its potential for positive change will continue in Washington D.C.
Party Uber Alles does seem to be their cry. Can't understand people who still think that Congress does anything to represent the people, that ended quite a while ago.
Time to start wondering, who the Republicans will put in place as Senate Majority Leader
I think Ted Cruz will hang onto his seat as I don't believe that Texans are stupid enough to elect an unknown democrat.
I like his no nonsense, take no prisoners type of approach to getting to the heart of the matter.
I can see where he would make a very effective majority leader.
Remember When Beto was going to beat Cruz?
That was a lot of laughs
Was that when he liked jumping up on counters and tables where people eat?
It seems every so often Democrats get all ginned up and declare that THIS time they are really going to turn Texas purple at least.
I remember when Wendy Davis was a HUGE media darling, only to get trounced by Abbott!
Then she ran for another office and got beat again!
What I just don't get is why some liberals seem to care so much about turning Texas when the record over the last 25 years or so tells them to stop declaring such idiotic things.
To me, it is like me declaring the GOP is going to 'turn' California. Although, based on Democratic "leadership" in that state, we have a better chance at turning Cali than Dems do of turning Texas.
The margins of control in both chambers will still be razor thin no matter which party is majority.
without effective rule changes in the senate, a continuous stalemate is built in ...
What rule changes would you see? I hope you're not talking about changing the Senate to a simple majority. I feel that would be a disaster for the Senate as it would allow whichever party in the majority to rule.
Harris has stated she wants to do away with the filibuster so that Roe vs Wade can be restored resulting in abortion with no restrictions.
Seems like lots of Democrats are in favor of changing the rules whenever they are unable to pass legislation on their own.
Don't agree with SCOTUS?
Add more Justices!
Can't pass legislation?
Change the rules!
I am pretty sure the Republicans will win the Senate so that is not going to happen anytime soon
And the Democrats will be glad 67 votes are still needed
Pretty sure Republicans will take the Senate. and very likely keep the House. Harris will a hard time coming up a winner in the EC.
As Walz has stated, we can't afford four more years of the incompetence and failures of the democrat agenda and policies
I can see the House and the Senate going red, but Trump loses to Harris in Nov unless something major happens between now and then
I hate to say it but I whichever side wins the Whitehouse I hope the other side takes at least one, if not both of the other branches.
With the bullshit from both parties, I have to agree with your hope. Having one party in the majority of both the House and the Senate and also holding the Oval Office would give me nightmares. The only moderation in that would be it's doubtful that either party could also take the Senate by 61 or more seats.
Washington needs a really good enema to clear out the bullshit that has overtaken it.
It is almost like a life jacket for the country, I agree