Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting 'finger on the scale,' lying to keep presidential race close
Category: News & Politics
Via: vic-eldred • 3 weeks ago • 13 commentsBy: Josh Christenson Published (New York Post)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for "cheating" in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.
The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were "herding" their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.
"I kind of trust pollsters less," Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. "They all, every time a pollster [says] 'Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state's a tie,' no! You're f-king herding! You're cheating! You're cheating!" he fumed.
"Your numbers aren't all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you're sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys," Silver vented.
"You are lying! You're putting your f-king finger on the scale!'"
Silver's own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.
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"Silver's own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days."
Well, I did my part to ensure that is the case as, to my amazement, did my wife. She's not been much of a Trump fan but actually took the time to listen to Harris. She picked, in her mind, the lesser of two evils.
I like happy stories in the morning.
Did you listen to what Nate Silver said ? Or are you just going by what your seed says ?
Maybe you are not going to respond, thats ok. I listened to what Silver says about this. I didnt hear the word "cheating" in Silvers comments , because I dont think he says it. The New York Post has that as a quote.
Silver's comments are not exclusively about Dem pollsters. In fact he mentions two polls by name as doing what you call "herding". He mentions Emerson and Insider Advantage. Silver implies that the more "liberal" poll Emerson fudges the results for Harris and the more "conservative" poll Insider Advantage does the same for Trump.
It is true Silver predicts a Trump win, by roughly a 54% chance. That of course means that Harris has a 46% chance of winning.
Silver says, quite clearly that it is a 50-50 race.
I actually listened to what he said.
Silver is the best in the business. If he says pollsters are herding to protect themselves they probably are.
But if the polls are accurate, he's basically saying the pitcher will get Babe Ruth at the peak of his powers out in his next at bat. Odds are he will. But Babe Ruth also got a lot of walks and hits....
Not sure what your point is, but Nate Silver actually says that it is a 50 - 50 race. He actually says that. So what is the problem when polls show it as such. Well, to Silver it doesnt make sense that the polls have stayed "tied" for such a long time. There should have been some movement.
Silver would describe his 54 -46 prediction as a model. Its not a poll, it is his own creation using factors that include but go beyond polling. What he's doing is saying the equivalent of saying that Chiefs-Lions is a pickem game but he is picking the Chiefs to win with a 54 % chance.
This article is much ado about absolutely nothing.
No, he's saying there should be more variance among polls given the small sample sizes.
To put Silvers model into horse racing terms , you could say he makes Trump 4/5 and Harris 6/5.
Horses with 6/5 odds beat horses with 4/5 odds every day at some track(s) in America.
If there was a reliable poll showing Trump with a 54 to Harris 46 that would likely be very significant.
But those are not poll numbers they are Silver's model numbers. When you say a football team has a 54% chance of winning you are saying the game is a toss up.
SSDD
The real poll comes next Tuesday. In a close race, polls and talking heads are of no value.
That remains the key phrase.