Bakeries can't beat egg prices, so your cake may cost more
Category: News & Politics
Via: perrie-halpern • 20 hours ago • 6 commentsBy: Alexandra Byrne and Christine Romans
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By Alexandra Byrne and Christine Romans
Flour Bakery in Boston can't make much with just its namesake ingredient; eggs are in just about everything from pies and cakes to brioche bread. With bird flu slamming into egg supplies and driving up prices, owner Joanne Chang said she's charging 50 cents more for egg sandwiches and quiches.
"We held out for as long as we could," she said.
Egg prices have soared amid major shortages because of avian influenza. The ongoing outbreak began in 2022 and has affected more than 162 million birds, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department, causing many farmers to cull their flocks. More than 27 million birds have been lost because of the virus so far this year alone, the American Egg Board trade group estimates.
A dozen large grade-A eggs hit an average of $4.95 in January, federal data shows, surpassing the last peak of $4.82 in January 2023. In between, prices dipped — last January, the average was just $2.52 — and businesses and consumers are now feeling whiplash.
"You see fluctuations, but you can't adjust your prices every single time," Chang said. She estimated paying $43 for a case — 15 dozen, or 180 eggs — as recently as December. Last week, that bill swelled to $87. She said her supplier has begun sending extra large eggs instead of large ones, which are ordinarily the most common size.
As small businesses weigh whether to raise prices to offset cost increases that threaten their profit margins, major breakfast food chains such as Waffle House have taken flak from customers who object to paying more. Many grocery stores have started rationing eggs, with Trader Joe's limiting purchases to one dozen per customer; some Kroger and Aldi stores set that cap at two cartons per trip.
Farmers are struggling to not only meet demand, but to also keep their hens from contracting the virus, said American Egg Board President and CEO Emily Metz.
"We are in the fight of our lives," she said. "My farmers wake up every day in fear that their farm is going to be next, and unfortunately we just haven't been able to get any relief."
Some hope may be on the horizon. The USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine for poultry, though it hasn't been approved for commercial use yet. In the meantime, many farmers have been forced to euthanize their flocks and thoroughly sanitize their facilities in the event of an outbreak, Metz said. She estimated it could take affected farms take nine to 12 months to fully recover from an outbreak.
Normally, there's about one egg-laying bird for every person in the U.S., or more than 330 million birds, Metz said. That tally has dropped below 280 million, she said, which is why the country is experiencing shortages.
"Eggs are indispensable," Metz said, adding that she gets dozens of calls a day from customers asking how they can help egg farmers.
Buying organic, ironically, has become a cheaper, more affordable option for us.
Sarah Botcher, Black Walnut Bakery, Minneapolis
Sarah Botcher, who runs Black Walnut Bakery in Minneapolis, thought she had been lucky amid skyrocketing egg prices. For months, her local organic supplier hadn't raised prices — up until Monday evening, when he alerted her to an impending 18% bump. It's a much smaller increase than other suppliers have instituted, said Botcher, who typically orders six cases per week.
"That's not going to break the bank for me, and that starts in a couple weeks," she said, adding that "buying organic, ironically, has become a cheaper, more affordable option for us."
Farm to People, a food delivery service based in New York, has been advertising pasture-raised eggs during the outbreak, saying its $7.49 carton of a dozen has seen only a 50-cent price hike in the last seven years. The company has vowed "no price gouging on eggs" and called the nationwide shortage "yet another sign of a broken food system where large factory farms fall short."
Eggs aren't the only bakery staple that's been getting more expensive. A global cocoa crunch has been sending wholesale costs sharply higher in recent weeks, and Botcher said she's seen prices for some varieties of chocolate rising by anywhere from 35% to 50% over the past year — a period in which labor costs have surged as well.
When something goes up this drastically, this quickly, there's not a whole lot we can do except eat the cost.
Darrin McMIllen, Grandview Bakery, Pittsburgh
She's a "frugal" baker, she said, and is accustomed to reducing waste and leftovers to keep costs down. Even so, she plans to raise prices for her egg and cheese sandwich by $1, and some other pastries by a quarter.
"Your margins just start to get smaller and smaller, and you just have to be very ahead of the game and continue to raise your prices," Botcher said.
Darrin McMillen, who owns Grandview Bakery in Pittsburgh, said the cost of a 30-pound bucket of prebeaten eggs surged 345% between January 2024 and this month.
"When something goes up this drastically, this quickly, there's not a whole lot we can do except eat the cost," he said.
McMillen decided not to raise prices on his inflation-weary customers, but it was a tough decision.
"You almost feel defeated," he said.
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Since I will not go without eggs I have paid as much as $8.49 a dozen. The last purchase was for $7.49. The Colorado Dems mandating that eggs be "cage-free" hasn't helped.
So now I have one egg instead of two and alternate with cereal to stretch out the supply.
Why Egg Prices in Canada Are Rising Slower Than in the U.S.
The price of eggs in the United States is soaring. In some states, a dozen eggs now retail for over $11, among the highest prices ever recorded. The ongoing avian flu outbreak is wreaking havoc, with the U.S. having culled more than 10% of its laying hen flock in recent months. With supplies dwindling, consumers are scrambling—no pun intended—to find affordable eggs. The situation appears increasingly dire.
In Canada, the landscape is different, though still concerning. Over the past 12 months, egg prices have risen by an average of 11% to 12% nationwide. Recently, finding a dozen Grade “A” large eggs for under $5 has become difficult in several provinces. Since January, some regions have experienced price hikes of up to 10%. The avian flu is also a concern here, though its impact has been more contained. Canada’s Food Price Report 2025 had already anticipated this, citing avian flu as a key factor in the rising cost of both chicken and eggs.
British Columbia is the only province currently experiencing supply shortages. Canada has culled approximately 14.5 million chickens during this avian flu cycle, with over 80% of them in B.C. Ontario ranks a distant second, though the outbreak there appears under control for now.
How Canada’s Egg Market Differs from the U.S.
Canada’s egg market is structurally different from that of the United States, and that distinction is playing a role in stabilizing supply and price fluctuations. One key factor is geography. Canada’s vast landmass allows for greater dispersion of poultry farms, making it more difficult for the virus to spread rapidly.
Secondly, supply management—Canada’s quota-based system that regulates production—has played a stabilizing role. Unlike the U.S. model, which is more exposed to market volatility, Canada’s collaborative supply management framework facilitates the rapid sharing of critical information. When sick or dead birds are identified, industry stakeholders act quickly to mitigate biosecurity risks. It is difficult to quantify the exact impact of this system on stabilizing prices, but the evidence suggests it has helped prevent more severe disruptions.
For example, Alberta is currently supplying eggs to British Columbia to offset shortages—an example of the flexibility within Canada’s egg supply system, which is far more adaptable than other supply-managed sectors such as dairy.
Future Egg Price Increases in Canada
That said, egg prices in Canada will continue to rise, but at nowhere near the rates seen in the United States. While U.S. consumers have seen price hikes of 60%, 80%, or even 100%, Canada is expected to experience a more moderate increase of up to 6% nationally this year. British Columbia, given its supply challenges, could see increases closer to 15%.
Despite these challenges, eggs remain one of the most affordable and efficient sources of animal protein. In the U.S., some restaurant chains—such as Waffle Warehouse—have already introduced egg surcharges to offset rising costs. No such reports have emerged in Canada yet. However, with the GST Holiday ending this week , some restaurants may adjust prices subtly without much notice. When fiscal policy shifts in ways that quietly impact consumer costs, it’s a reminder that the true burden of inflation often extends beyond the grocery store.
Egg prices are rising on both sides of the border, but Canada’s supply management system, industry coordination, and geographic advantages have helped shield consumers from the worst of the price shocks seen in the United States. While affordability remains a concern, the current trajectory suggests that Canadian households will continue to fare better than their American counterparts in navigating this latest wave of food inflation.
No, I'm not the most intellectual person in the world, but I have some really serious questions 'bout this "we gonna rip you off in 'nuther way" attitude.
In 2022, there were 67 reported cases of bird flu in the U.S. - no one died. .000002% of the U.S. population.
In 2024/2025, there have been 66 reported cases of bird flu in the U.S. - and one died in Louisiana. .000000000% of the population.
“We have to put H5N1 deaths in perspective. This has been a horrible disease for well over 27 years in humans,” says Michael Osterholm, chair of public health and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Yet “the virus activity we’re seeing now, in terms of cases, has been largely a very mild illness,” Osterholm adds. “And while there have been two severe cases, both of these individuals also had underlying health conditions that would predispose them to severe disease.”
From .000000% to .000002% - that dictates raising the price of eggs 3 to 5 times more than they cost???
"The Sky is Falling - the Sky is Falling"
So, where is the call for that really poor, silly, stupid "seasonal Flu" thing of 2024/2025 that has already killed 2,700 folks just in the U. S. ?
Gads - greed apparently rules in today's world.
That's one way of putting it, the other is 25% of egg laying chickens have been destroyed due to squawk flu.
Bird flu isn't just about human deaths. Flocks are being destroyed to curtail spread among poultry. Destruction of flocks leads to fewer eggs, which leads to higher egg prices.
Some strains, including H5N1, have a high mortality rate in infected chickens. It can kill entire flocks. Egg production in chickens not killed is affected, leading to both fewer eggs and lower quality eggs that are misshapen and have soft shells.
This is just classic supply and demand.
Morning....rather co incidental we have an outbreak of avian flu here as well in my State...
Had to cull hundreds of thousands of chooks and egg prices have gone up but certainly not drastically...
All they do is bring in eggs from other States to make up the short fall...