Keystone climate impact could be 4 times U.S. State Dept. estimate, study says
This March 17, 2014, file photo shows a stake in the ground wrapped with tape that marks the route of the Keystone XL pipeline in Tilden, Neb. The much-debated Keystone XL pipeline could produce four times more global warming pollution than the State Department has calculated, according to scientists at a Swedish research facility. (AP/Nati Harnik, File)
Bob Weber, The Canadian Press
Published Sunday, August 10, 2014 1:52PM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, August 10, 2014 6:05PM EDT
An economic analysis of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline's possible climate impacts has concluded they could be up to four times higher than previously estimated.
In the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute write that widely quoted U.S. State Department findings that the oilsands pipeline wouldn't make a significant difference missed a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
"It didn't appear that they looked at the market implications," said co-author Peter Erickson. "If the Keystone pipeline were to enable a greater rate of extraction of the oilsands, would that not increase global fuel supplies, which might then decrease prices and therefore allow a little bit more global consumption?
"That's the analysis that we did here and we found that it could be the greatest emissions impact of the pipeline."
Erickson and co-author Michael Lazarus used figures from previous research and international agencies that mathematically describe how oil prices affect consumption. They found that a slightly lower price created by every barrel of increased oilsands production enabled by Keystone XL would increase global oil consumption by slightly more than half a barrel.
The capacity of the pipeline proposed by Calgary-based TransCanada Corp. (TSX:TRP) would be about 820,000 barrels a day. If every barrel of that came from new production, the annual carbon impact of Keystone XL could be up to 110 million tonnes -- four times the maximum State Department estimate of up to 27 million tonnes.
The authors acknowledge their study doesn't answer whether Keystone XL would encourage oilsands expansion or simply provide an outlet for growth that would have happened anyway.
Full Article: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/keystone-climate-impact-could-be-4-times-u-s-state-dept-estimate-study-says-1.1953616
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In any model-- be it groundwater, weather, etc., there are so many assumptions made, any one of which could really affect the results of the data, that one doesn't really know what to believe.
I think it is a bad idea to build the Keystone pipeline. It will increase the likelihood of major spills, interrupt wildlife patterns, and really make a mess of things. But that's just my opinion...
An opinion I happen to value and also agree with completely. Thank you for taking the time to read and respond Dowser.
I always enjoy your articles!
I'm glad that we're friends!