Russia underestimated Ukraine's resistance, US officials say
By: Nomaan Merchant and Eric Tucker (Associated Press via MSN)
We're supposed to believe that European neoliberal technocrats know more about Ukraine than does Russia? US policymakers can't even figure out how a restroom is supposed to work.
I admit misreading the situation before all this started. I couldn't understand why Putin would risk war that would endanger control of Crimea and the Black Sea. I didn't realize that Russian military operations in Ukraine would be totally unopposed. That must have surprised Putin, as well. The initial phase of Russian operations were tentative to observe how the United States and Europe would respond. Now that it's clear the United States and Europe aren't going to do anything, the real combat operations can begin.
Putin stated before all of this started that Russia was seeking a partitioning of Ukraine. Donetsk and Luhansk were to be independent states. Russia recognized their independence before the military operation began. Since Russia is unopposed in Ukraine, it seems rather obvious that Putin will expand the territory claimed by the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. If anything, Putin did not expect to expand so far westward. Now there is a real possibility that Ukraine can be partitioned at the Dnieper River, essentially splitting Ukraine in half. IMO Kyiv won't be seriously threatened until Russia is ready to begin talks about partitioning Ukraine. And Russia will use the threat of destroying Kyiv as a bargaining chip.
Who knows? The lack of serious opposition may embolden Putin to take the whole of Ukraine. A forty mile convoy waiting to move at the appropriate time without being seriously threatened must be reassuring.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States believes Russia underestimated the strength of Ukraine's resistance before launching an invasion that has likely caused thousands of Russian casualties, the Biden administration's top intelligence official told lawmakers Tuesday.
The testimony, in a hearing before the House Intelligence Committee, amounted to the first public disclosure by the nation's most senior intelligence officials about how the 2-week-old war is proceeding, offering their insight into the thinking of Russian President Vladimir Putin as his forces continue their march through Ukraine.
The officials made clear their assessment that Russia's assault has been slowed by unexpected resistance by Ukrainian defenders and that it was unclear if Putin planned a "maximalist" strategy to try to capture all of Ukraine or would settle for something short of that.
"We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said. "But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time given the significant costs he is incurring."
The U.S. believes Putin had banked on capturing the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv within two days, CIA Director William Burns said.
"He was confident that he had modernized his military and they were capable of quick, decisive victory at minimum cost," Burns said. "He's been proven wrong on every count."
Despite Putin's announcement that he would raise Russia's alert level for nuclear weapons, Haines said the U.S. has not observed unusual changes in Russia's nuclear force posture.
Several officials pledged their agencies' full effort to supporting the Ukrainian resistance. Much of the intelligence community's work in Ukraine likely will take place in secret. But FBI Director Chris Wray said that at Ukraine's request, the bureau had worked with social media companies to take down accounts linked to Russia that were spreading Ukrainian military disinformation.
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So far the US defense and intelligence agencies haven't provided anything other than propaganda. These are the same people who screwed up the relatively simple task of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Right now the US defense and intelligence agencies are monitoring the situation and working feverishly on how to shift blame elsewhere.
Poland has just sent all of their Mig-29's to the US Air Force base in Mannheim Air Base in Germany for the use of Ukraine.
It's rather telling that Ukraine needs Russian made MiG aircraft to mount an air defense. No doubt modified to accept western munitions. Apparently the ties that bind are not severed so easily.
I also heard that Ukraine has trained their pilots to operate the MIG-29. They did train their military well. The world knows it now.
You fight with what you have. Russia left them the planes, naturally they are going to update them and adapt them as needed. You'd be stupid not not. At the same time you don't fix what isn't broken. Even the M777 used by the US military is fired with a simple rope.
In this case, you fight with what you know how to use. Ukraine became independent in 1991. But after 30 years Ukraine is still tied to Russia. Ukraine is fighting for national sovereignty but Ukraine is not fighting for democracy.
The Ukraine air force was made up of MIG 29, Sukhoi 24, 25, 26. All of their airforce is Russian-made planes.
So the Ukrainian pilots are totally familiar with the planes that Poland is furnishing. That was the point of those specific planes since the Ukrainian pilots are not trained or familiar with any other plane.
nt all of their Mig-29's to the US Air Force base in Mannheim Air Base in Germany for the use of Ukraine.
Putin has said he would consider that an act of war by Poland, wonder if he'll continue with that line of thought.
Given Russia's history of giving airplanes to American enemies, it BS, but it's Putin so who knows.
Even without the Ukrainians having planes, the Russians haven't been able to establish air superiority. Those Javelin missiles were worth their weight in gold.
Javelins don't work against fixed wing aircraft. The Ukrainians may be using the S-300.
The Ukrainians may also be using the Bliskavka to attack ground forces.
Ukraine designs and manufactures all sorts of advanced weapons. Ukraine's defense spending has been the highest in Europe for a number of years; primarily to feed public money into Ukrainian defense industries. (That's where the corruption fits in.) Ukraine is not helpless or defenseless. Russia was one of Ukraine's biggest customers for military arms, so, Russia knows what Ukraine has in its arsenal.
Ukraine has sold a lot of arms to regimes we've been fighting in the Middle East. Ukrainian arms have been used to kill US soldiers.
Sounds like the deal is off. Poland appears to have announced it without consulting with the US, who doesn't like the idea of having migs take off from a US air base into contested airspace over Ukraine.
The main reason is the US does not want a confrontation with Putin.
It might be taking longer than expected, but they are still moving along at a pretty good clip. It looks more like a matter of “when,” and not “if.” And I believe they will move to take the whole country. Why would they stop?