What would a win in Ukraine really look like?
By: Tara D. Sonenshine, Opinion Contributor (The Hill)
Yet another article that ignores Ukraine to only talk about Russia. Yes, the United States has been fighting Russia for nearly 80 years. Russia has been a reliable justification for US defense budgets and diplomatic initiatives. After spending trillions of dollars to defeat Russia over the last 80 years, Russia still stands. A rather amazing accomplishment considering that Russia's economy has always been a tiny fraction of the size of the US economy. For the United States, Russia has proven to be an enemy that can't be defeated. Why is that?
It's only natural to ignore Ukraine when discussing the Ukrainian war. Ukraine had been an enemy for 50 of the last 80 years. Ukraine was the nuclear spear tip pointed at the heart of Europe. And Ukraine had not made any serious overtures toward joining Europe until little more than a decade ago when a quarrel with Russia over natural gas erupted. The Russian analysts have much to say about Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 but completely ignore that the Ukrainian response was to send tanks into the Donbas region to fight Ukrainians. Russia grabbed territory and the response was to kill Ukrainians. The United States, once again, balked at defeating Russia. Why is that?
Within the framework of the last 80 years it is apparent that Russia will not be defeated. The United States will not allow defeat of Russia for its own political reasons. The purpose of the US support for Ukraine is to reestablish the 80 year status quo with Russia. The United States will not negotiate with Russia and refuses to defeat Russia. Why is that?
The war in Ukraine will not end, by design. The hope is that the Ukraine war will simply fade away. The hope is that Russia either won't be able to sustain the fighting or will grow tired of fighting and withdraw, as Russia did in Afghanistan. The war in Ukraine isn't about Ukraine; that's why Ukraine is ignored in discussions of the war. The United States is only trying to force Russia back into the role of bogeyman. Russia is an enemy that the United States cannot allow to be defeated. Why is that?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
With growing concern over the social media leaks of plans purporting to lay out how the West will support Ukraine in its counteroffensive against Russia, we are back to wondering: How will this war end?
Perhaps the answer is, it might not.
Consider that in the 13 months since the Russian invasion, thousands of Ukrainian children have been displaced, moved or forcibly transferred to camps or institutions in Russia or Russian-controlled territory, in what Ukraine and human rights advocates have condemned as war crimes.
Save Ukraine, a non-profit organization, has helped some Ukrainian mothers travel 3,000 miles to bring back groups of children, but not all have been reunited with their families. Ukrainians could end up living in Russian pockets within Ukraine or within the former Soviet empire.
Therein lies part of the problem for ending the war in Ukraine.
What Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to do over many decades is create endless wars by occupying territories in once sovereign parts of the old Soviet Union, nibbling away at countries and establishing a destabilizing presence, creating a grey zone between war and peace.
Using people as pawns, and land as negotiable, Putin establishes Russian enclaves that over time prove difficult to dislodge.
For sure, Ukraine right now is in a country-against-country active war with full-scale military might and Russian air and ground forces. Ukrainians, with Western help, are on the front lines fighting to hold territory and to push Russian forces back, intercept missiles and prepare for a major counteroffensive in the next month with the goal of restoring Ukraine to its democratic, sovereign state.
For eight months, Ukrainians have courageously endured brutal trench warfare in Bakhmut, an obscure mining town that has become a major symbolic piece of land whose fate could shape the course of the war and help imagine its end.
But does Russia ever actually end its wars?
Take Crimea. In 2014, Putin gave his "Crimea Speech," announcing the annexation of the peninsula. Making preposterous historical claims, Putin rationalized a military move on the critically important strategic Black Sea territory, which became part of Ukraine after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.
With the agreement of the Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, Putin created a "special status" for Sevastopol inside Ukraine. Even after Yanukovych fled, Putin retained forces in Crimea, held a phony referendum on its status and watched how the West protested but did little to dislodge the Russians.
Now it will fall to Ukraine to take back Crimea.
If not, Ukraine remains nibbled at from within. Another option for Ukraine is some kind of international presence or a naval blockade of Crimea. But these options fall short of a full win.
Georgia is another example of Russia's endless war strategy. In 2008 Russia launched an invasion, calling it a "peace enforcement" operation. Despite Western outrage and internal dissent, Putin has continued to keep a hand in Georgia. Russia never removed its forces from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, creating sealed-off Kremlin protectorates that behave as independent city-states within Georgia.
In the last few months, Russians have spilled into Georgia to escape being drafted for the war against Ukraine or to avoid Western sanctions. Their presence outside the Russian zones is worrisome to Georgia and reminiscent of how Russians still feel free to move around outside Russia.
Which brings us back to Ukraine. With Russian forces still trying to hold areas of Ukraine in oblasts such as Luhansk and Donetsk, and threatening to retain forces in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, it is too early to predict the outcomes of those battles. But we see signs of how Putin plants seeds for the future even as the battles unfold. In Kherson, there are examples of the Russian military using so-called "passportization" to intimidate the local population into becoming Russian even before Russia can claim the territory.
The patterns of Russian behavior suggest that Putin may never leave Ukraine fully alone to manage 100 percent of its country without fear, intimidation and territorial confusion.
None of this suggests the United States and its allies should cease assisting Ukraine, militarily, economically and through humanitarian aid. We must. But we also need to be clear-eyed about what a win in Ukraine may look like.
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Ukraine isn't that important. Ukraine is only an excuse. Biden is writing blank checks to revive the Russian bogeyman. Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine; that's apparent. But the United States will not allow Russia to be defeated for its own political reasons.
The US doesn't need Russia any more to justify it's obscene military budget.
China has taken over that roll and then some. China's economy equals that of the US. China controls key strategic resources for high end electronics. China hasn't been wasting it's military assets on endless wars, and proxy wars, like the Russians and US.
China needs Russia far more than the US does. Russia is now the bulwark against the West. So long as Russia is around NATO and the US will be focusing their assets on Russia, not China.
As for Ukraine, they will fight until they are no longer able. Zelensky has no reason to surrender- no one is coming close to killing him or his family. He can hold out for however long the US can continue to funnel billions in aide and military equipment/training/munitions to him. His biggest threat is from within- were the Fascists he has coddled and woven into the government and military may grow tired of dying for his excesses. They helped overthrow a pro Russian President before; they can surely stage a coupe against a faux military leader whose chief ability is grand standing for foreigners.
Either way the war will end- or a truce will be called. Whomever is left in charge of Ukraine (won't be Russia) will be supported by the US in the rebuilding. Billions more will flow in- with those in the US elite bilking millions into family and friends coffers.
Yes, IMO China has a vested interest in reviving the Russian bogeyman, too. China is placing itself in the position of 'influencing' Russia in a similar manner to 'influencing' North Korea. Not quite the same as control but of significant importance in foreign affairs. China will be in a position to foster conflict between the two sides while selling military goods to both sides.
No, Russia will not control Ukraine. But was that ever Russia's intent? A lot of emphasis has been placed on Russia threatening Kiev. But Russia committed less than 15 pct of its available forces to an assault on Kiev. If Kiev were an important objective then why would Russia spread the bulk of its available forces elsewhere?
The GDP of the United States is more than 10 times larger than Russia's GDP. The combined GDP of the United States and the European Union is more than 20 times larger than Russia's GDP. The population of the United States is more than double that of Russia and the combined US and EU population is more than 5 times larger than Russia's population. The US and EU spend more on defense than Russia's GDP.
Yet, despite those overwhelming economic and manpower advantages, Russia hasn't been defeated in 80 years. Either Russia has an amazing set of skills and abilities or the United States and the EU haven't been trying very hard.
How does the United States win when the objective is to avoid defeating an enemy?