Questions swirl about Nikki Haley’s next move
By: Julia Manchester (The Hill)
If not Trump then who? The point really isn't about Nikki Haley. Even though Trump has won more than enough delegates, the nomination really is still up in the air. The objective liberal courts could throw a 'hail Mary' and still toss Trump in jail. Democrats may well open the Pandora's box of a brokered Republican convention. Even nominating a jailed Trump would raise the stakes for choice of Vice President. The chances are growing that it will be a wild time in Milwaukee.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Speculation is swirling over the role Nikki Haley will play in the run-up to November as she racks up primary votes against former President Trump months after dropping out of the presidential race.
Haley, who exited the race in March, garnered 21.7 percent of the vote in Tuesday's Indiana primary, the latest example of her winning a significant share of votes against Trump despite no longer being a candidate.
The former U.N. ambassador's vote totals in recent contests have served as a warning sign for the former president and led to questions over whether she will endorse him or sit out the election entirely.
Haley ended her presidential bid in March, saying being a private citizen is "privilege enough in itself." Last month, Haley joined the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, as its next Walter P. Stern chair.
And despite losing to Trump this cycle, Republicans say she still has a bright future ahead.
"I think Nikki Haley is always looking to the horizon politically," said Dave Wilson, a South Carolina-based Republican strategist. "She is looking for that opportunity that she can grab a hold of and run with it as long and as hard as she can."
Haley is set to meet with roughly 100 donors next week in Charleston on Monday and Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal first reported news of the meetings, which are intended to serve as a "thank you" to the donors who supported her presidential bid. Haley does not have plans to endorse Trump.
But even though Haley lost to Trump in the primary, her successes with Republican primary voters are not lost on her supporters. Haley notably racked up around 17 percent of the Republican primary vote in Pennsylvania and Arizona, respectively — two of the country's most consequential swing states.
While she was still in the race, Haley pointed frequently to data suggesting 40 percent of Republican primary voters supported her over Trump, arguing it was a sign of Trump's vulnerability with the GOP primary electorate and more moderate voters.
"What we're seeing is that Haley voters are going to be a really crucial and critical voting block," said Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist. "I think there is a lot at stake and from what I'm understanding it really sounds like neither the Trump nor Biden campaigns have tapped into that yet."
The continued support for Haley in recent GOP primaries has stoked speculation over her next move. Wilson said the Haley votes are a sign of her staying power, but cautioned there are still questions about the voters coming out for Haley despite not being in the race.
"The question that I really begin to ask is, is her staying because of who she is or is her staying power there right now because it's somebody other than Trump that these people are voting for," he said. "We don't know. Is it a pro-Haley vote or an anti-Trump vote?"
"That has got to factor into what Nikki Haley looks at for her long-term political career," Wilson said.
Trump's supporters point out Haley has received support from Democratic voters in primaries and that when confronted with the choice of Trump vs. Biden, Republican and conservative leaning voters will likely not choose Biden.
"I do not think wooing Haley voters is the best use of your time and resources," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist. "By the fall the GOP base is going to come home to Trump because it's not like inflation and interest rates are going to improve and it's not like the border is going to get anymore closed between now and then."
Trump echoed this sentiment during an interview with WGAL in Lancaster, Pa., this week.
"Well, that's a very small number because she was campaigning, she was spending millions of dollars, she was getting it from Democrats," Trump said.
"All of those people are going to come to me because, first of all, what's their choice? Biden, he's the worst president in the history of our country," he continued. "They're all coming to me. We see it already."
Still, Haley is seen as a figure that has sway with suburban voters, particularly suburban women, who have swung toward Democrats every election year going back to Trump's first midterm election as president in 2018.
"That was her strength and we saw that again in Indiana," O'Connell said. "Yes, it was an open primary. At the same time though, this election is going to be decided by inches on the Electoral College map."
In another sign of her continued relevance, Axios reported on Saturday that the Trump campaign is actively considering Haley to be his running mate. The former U.N. ambassador has not given any indication yet that she would agree to be on the same ticket as Trump.
The last days of Haley's campaign were marked by heightening animosity between her and Trump. Haley wished Trump well in her remarks announcing her exit from the race, but it's unclear whether the two would team up on the campaign trail. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who was also the subject of Trump's wrath in the primary, met with Trump late last month in Miami and the two pledged to work together this cycle.
"If DeSantis has to rebuild his brand by staying close to Trump, what do you think it's going to do for Nikki Haley? Do you think holding out for Nikki Haley is anyway going to improve her political brand going forward as she wants to run for president? The answer is absolutely no," said one GOP strategist.
Other Republicans say Haley is a natural figure to campaign for Republicans down the ballot this cycle, which could pay dividends in the future.
"If she's not working on down-ballot races, there's a problem," Wilson said. "That's where you engender the support of the people you're going to need four years from now."
There's also the factor of how a hypothetical Trump win in November plays for Haley and other Republican star's futures.
"If Donald Trump wins in November, does this completely shoot her chances for anything in '28?" Wilson said. "Because you have to keep in mind, if Trump wins whoever is his VP is the natural front-runner in '28. He's term limited. He can't run again."
Additionally, there is also a whole roster of younger Republicans with their sights set on 2028.
"You take a look at who's coming up next — Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley. Those are three leading names right now," Wilson said.
"This is the last generation of the 70- and 80-somethings taking the lead in presidential politics," Wilson said.
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If not Trump then who? The arguments for or against Haley won't change the fact that Republicans are going to need a plan B. The objective liberal courts will adamantly deny they're playing politics and hang Democrats out to dry. Democrats have lost all control over the situation at this point.
You know, if this has been Biden's plan all along then Democrats had better worry. Biden has botched up every other plan so far. Biden is so bad that the unbiased liberal press can't even cover for him any longer.
Haley would be Trump's best choice. With both Presidential candidates having historically low chances of finishing the next term, the VP choice matters as much as it ever has and there's no better contrast for the GOP than Haley vs Harris. "Haley voters" are key for Trump and there's no better way to get them than to choose her.
I am sorry; but whomever Trump taps as his VP is never going to be president.
Trump has too much of a stigma on him. His VP nominee will be destroyed by the media; and that will carry over into any future presidential run. Just ask Pence; who received backlash from both sides during his attempt at the presidency.
Trump has proven that his Teflon ability doesn't transfer to others; as his record at supporting down card Republican candidates isn't great.
Whomever Trump gets needs to know they will never be President going in; and except that fact.
What happens if the VP is chosen by Republican delegates at a brokered convention? There still isn't a guarantee that Trump will be the nominee, either.
I agree. But that's not limited to Trump. Where, oh, where is Tim Kaine?
IMO Joe Biden has created a stigma for any VP running for President. Joe Biden has made the voting public painfully aware that electing a VP to be President is not a great idea.
That or Trump needs to accept that whomever he gets as VP is going to remove him from office. Don't discount the political payoff for a VP that rids the country of Trump. And if the VP removes Trump early then they could potentially be President for 12 years.
In my view, the 2024 election hinges upon who will be the Republican Vice Presidential candidate. Democrats political stunts have failed and now Democrats don't have any control over the election. IMO Democrats tried to rig the election and now they're screwed.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if the first woman of color elected President is a Republican? I doubt the country can wrap their heads around that possibility. And the two parties will be foaming at the mouth.
If there is good political payoff for removing Trump from office then Trump will logically not be elected.
The GOP had the option to nominate Haley and they failed to do so. It would have rid them of the Trump problem, would have given them their first female nominee for PotUS, their first nominee 'of color', and she would have very likely won the general election.
If this is going to happen in Hail Mary mode per your musings, one expects it would have happened under normal (and easier) circumstances.
Why is Trump, by himself, beating the Biden/Harris ticket? Trump is not running in the vacuum between the ears of unbiased liberal journalists. Democrats may want to ignore Biden but that won't change the fact that Biden is an important motivation to support Trump.
Voting against Biden requires casting a vote for the candidate with the best chance of removing Biden. Trump can't do any more damage than Biden has done. Trump certainly didn't do as much damage during his first term as Biden has done.
How could Haley break through? Debates on cable channels? Press coverage by the unbiased liberal press? Haley might have done better if she had an opportunity to debate Trump. The unbiased liberal press didn't want Haley to be competitive with Trump. Is that because the first woman of color elected President must be a Democrat?
Wasn't Trump supposed to be convicted by now? Fani Willis kinda botched things. Bragg wanted a porn star on the stand for political reasons but even Daniels admitted her testimony ain't relevant. And now the FBI has been caught manipulating evidence again. Convicting Trump is becoming more uncertain as the cases progress.
the 'hail Mary' is to toss Trump in jail for contempt or some other procedural technicality. How can Trump accept the nomination from jail? Republicans may be able to change rules to allow Trump to phone in his acceptance but the jailer has let Trump use the phone.
It really isn't certain that Trump will be the Republican nominee. And since Trump has not chosen a VP at this point, the delegates aren't committed to a last minute Trump pick for VP. The possibility of a brokered convention becomes greater with each passing week.
What does any of this have to do with my point?
Again, Nerm, you stated that you believe Trump's VP would gain major political points by removing Trump from office (if elected). My point is that if he/she could gain such points then Trump would have not been elected in the first place.
I am not going to chase tangents.
The political payoff is preventing a Biden second term. Your point relies upon a false premise that Trump is a desirable candidate on his own. That's the same sort of argument as 11 Republicans removed Kevin McCarthy. The argumeTrunt requires completely ignoring Democrats.
The Biden record as President is what makes Trump a desirable candidate. Trump's record as President is more desirable than Biden's record as Present.
Trump was elected because Hillary Clinton ran for President. Clinton wanted Trump as an opponent. Hillary Clinton made Trump's election probable because she is a screw up. And contrary to what you are saying, Trump was not re-elected. But Biden has screwed things up so badly that Trump is again competitive. Clinton was an awful choice for Democrats. Biden was an awful choice for Democrats. Democrats have done this to themselves.
If Trump prevents Biden's re-election then Trump is no longer useful politically. Even Mike Pence was being pressured by Democrats to remove Trump. Are we to believe that Democrats won't put even more pressure on the next Trump VP? What if the next VP takes that Democrat support and runs with it. Trump can't run again anyway. Are Democrats going to punish a VP that did what they wanted? You think the voters won't notice?
No, Nerm, I am following your hypothetical. Your hypothetical has Trump winning the presidency. If that is the case then he absolutely had substantial political support and it would NOT be a great benefit to a VP who was able to remove Trump from office.
If your conjecture were true then Haley would be the nominee rather than Trump.
While I agree that Trump would not have a chance to be elected if the Ds put forth someone like Obama, that is an entirely different matter than what I commented on.
Correct. Keep in mind the hypothetical is supported by polling. But there's still six months left.
Incorrect. I am saying that Biden's poor performance as President has considerable influence on support for Trump. Democrats over-the-top craziness has considerable influence on support for Trump. Trump is not beating the Biden/Harris ticket only on his own popularity.
As I pointed out, Haley may have been the nominee if the debates were more widely broadcast and if Haley had an opportunity to debate Trump.
I doubt Nikki Haley has a viable shot to be Vice President. Trump doesn't want her and Haley likely wants to avoid a contentious convention to prepare for 2028. But Haley has been getting Democrat votes during the primary. IMO it would be unwise to discount Democrat support for a VP that removes Trump. Are Democrats really going to bad mouth a VP that removes Trump? I that would expect that to be a losing strategy for Democrats.
For the 2016 election. Trump lost the 2020 election. Basing the argument on Trump winning ignores that Trump lost. Since Trump lost in 2020, why is Trump beating the Biden/Harris ticket now? Trump is making a political comeback.
Biden already beat Trump. So, why isn't Biden beating Trump now? Didn't Biden receive a lot of support for removing Trump? Democrats expect a lot of political support if they remove Trump. Why wouldn't a VP that removes Trump receive that same support?
I know. Not the point I am responding to.
No. You certainly should have noticed that partisan politics does NOT result in support for 'the other side'. If Trump is elected and then removed (somehow) by the VP, that would be going against will of the GOP electorate (since they passed on Haley) and against the will of the GOP establishment (since they joined the Trump cult). It would please the GOP minority that is still rational and would please the Ds, but the end result is a net loss in 'political points'.
You are attempting to make a point by conflating support for Trump with loyalty to Trump which ignores political reality.
Your point ignores Biden's entire 2020 campaign and Biden's re-election strategy to garner support by opposing Trump. Biden was elected because he is not Trump; Biden's election really had little to do with Joe Biden. Joe Biden refutes the point you are trying to make.
The various and sundry prosecutions are underway to take the choice away from the GOP electorate. The prosecutions are obviously politically motivated than there really is an expectation of a political payoff. Using your logic, what will be the repercussions of those indictments and trials?
Why are you deliberately ignoring that over 40 pct of the electorate are independent? Aren't independent voters notable for their support without loyalty? Just because the unbiased liberal press lies to the public about partisan loyalty doesn't make it so.
Your hypothetical has Trump winning the presidency. If that is the case then he absolutely had substantial political support and it would NOT be a great benefit to a VP who was able to remove Trump from office.
If Trump is elected and then removed (somehow) by the VP, that would be going against will of the GOP electorate (since they passed on Haley) and against the will of the GOP establishment (since they joined the Trump cult). It would please the GOP minority that is still rational and would please the Ds, but the end result is a net loss in 'political points'.
Yes, the hypothetical has Trump winning the election (which isn't certain). The fruition of that hypothetical may be due to support for Trump or lack of support for Biden. Disgruntled voters refusing to support Biden would also result in a Trump victory.
We know for a fact that there were Democrats who voted for Trump in the 2016 primaries. Did those Democrats really support Trump? The primary election results are not very informative are they?
A VP that removes Trump may obtain support from partisan Democrats who didn't support Biden, disgruntled voters of all persuasions, and those who supported Trump without loyalty to Trump. That would seem to be a sizeable portion of the electorate. A VP that removes Trump soon after the election would have about three years till the next election cycle to firm up support. And a VP that removes Trump could, potentially, be President for 12 years. That's a helluva payoff that might justify the gamble.
You mean like Mitt Romney? Liz Cheney? Adam Kinzinger? Susan Collins? Lisa Murkowski? Yeah, ignoring the split in the Republican Party when it's convenient can bolster faux concerns about the GOP electorate. But that's not an argument based upon the real political environment.
Support for Trump doesn't indicate loyalty to Trump. Trump's support in spite of low popularity polling really is an indicator that the will of the GOP electorate would be preventing Biden's re-election. Once Biden is gone, Trump would no longer be politically useful. Yeah, removing Trump would highlight divisions within the GOP electorate but those divisions are already there.
Very few Ds will support a GOP VP. In all you are talking about a small minority of people. In short, your scenario is a net point loss. As I noted, one cannot ignore the fact that if Trump was elected then that means that he received multiple tens of millions of votes and his removal from office would not sit well with that substantial majority.
I think two things can be true. I don’t see why it needs to be one or the other. Trump holds the record as the most unlikeable candidate ever, and it’s also easy to like Nikki Haley.