Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine War - Nato chief
By: Chris Mason, Sam Francis (BBC)
Yes, it's rather obvious why the Ukrainian war will be prolonged. The problem is not money or weapons; it's manpower. Neither Ukraine or Russia have sufficient manpower available to drive each other out of defensive positions. The Ukraine has not become a war of attrition because there has been too little support or commitment to either side of the war.
At the current level of support, the United States and Europe will spend about $1.5 to $2 trillion on Ukraine over a decade. There's little doubt that conservatives are going to complain about the debt and liberal/progressives will complain about spending money on the wrong priorities. NATO putting troops into Ukraine might achieve a resolution faster but will likely also increase the cost of achieving that resolution.
The political demands for peace talks are already growing. And Trump winning the US election will only heighten the political demand for peace talks. A Biden reelection may stall the peace process but won't quiet European demands for peace. Ending the war and achieving a negotiated peace will likely require NATO putting more political pressure on Zelensky than on Putin.
The most likely negotiated peace will require Ukraine to be partitioned. Ukraine won't agree to Russia keeping captured territory. Russia won't agree to the captured territory returning to Ukraine. The middle ground would mean the captured territory would become autonomous and self governing; not part of Ukraine or Russia. That's what the Ukrainian separatists wanted. That was the negotiated settlement of the Minsk Agreements. The sticking point will be Sevastopol in Crimea (that's where the US will try to squirrel the deal). Resolving that much smaller conflict depends more on Turkey because of their gatekeeper position for the Black Sea.
Everyone knows the war cannot continue to a victory by any side. We already have a negotiated framework for ending the conflict. So, the only diplomacy that is needed is to get both sides to agree to bite the political bullet and end the war.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Europe must be prepared for a decade of Ukranian war, the outgoing secretary general of Nato has warned.
Speaking to the BBC, Jens Stoltenberg said the "paradox" of the war in Ukraine is the longer the western military alliance commits to fighting the war, the faster a resolution will be reached.
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Mr Stoltenberg, who ends his 10-year tenure as secretary general in October, urged European Nato members to boost their commitments amid fears that US funds could be slashed or even stopped if Donald Trump wins a second term as US president in November's election.
Asked if Nato allies had to be prepared for the conflict in Ukraine going on for more than 10 years, Mr Stoltenberg said: "Yes."
He added: "But the main message is that the stronger the support for Ukraine and the longer we are willing to commit, the sooner this war can end.
"The paradox is that now President Putin believes that he can wait us out. So therefore, the war continues.
"When we communicate very clearly that we are here for long haul, that we have strong enduring support for Ukraine, then we have the conditions for a solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent state."
It comes as Nato announced a command unit to coordinate support for Ukraine will be operational in Germany from September.
"This will provide more predictability and accountability and support and it will also demonstrate our enduring commitment to support Ukraine," Mr Stoltenberg said.
"The time to stand up for freedom and democracy is now and the place is Ukraine."
Mr Stoltenberg's comments come as Germany announced it was planning to nearly halve military aid for Ukraine next year - from around £6.7bn (€8bn; $8.7bn) to around £3.4bn.
Finance Minister Christian Lindner said Ukraine's financing was "secure for the foreseeable future" due to a G7 group of rich nations scheme to raise $50bn from interest on frozen Russian assets.
The planned aid cut comes amid fears in Ukraine and among its European allies that US funding could dry up during a potential second Trump White House.
This week former US President Trump chose JD Vance, one of the most isolationist members of the Republican Party, as his running mate.
The Ohio senator has previously said: "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."
A vocal critic of US aid to Ukraine, he told this year's Munich Security Conference that Europe should wake up to the US having to "pivot" its focus to East Asia.
Mr Stoltenberg said he was confident that the US would remain in the alliance because "it's in the US security interest to have a strong Nato".
There is also a "strong bipartisan support for Nato in United States, both in the Congress, but also in the opinion polls", he argued.
Asked whether a second Trump term could mean less funding for Nato, Mr Stoltenberg said: "The right thing to do regardless of what you think about the US commitment to Nato is to invest more in our defence.
"First of all, it increases the likelihood that the US will stay a strong ally.
"Second, if something really bad does happen then it is good we have stronger European and Canadian defence capabilities."
Mr Stoltenberg said the ex-US president made "absolutely right and valid criticisms" of European allies for not spending enough on defence and relying too much on the US.
But "this has now changed", he added.
Nato members of the military alliance pledged to spend at least 2% of the value of their economies - measured by GDP - on defence per year by 2024.
The UK is one of the 23 of Nato's 32 members to achieve the target this year - spending 2.3% of GDP on defence.
Mr Stoltenberg said: "Nato is the most successful alliance in history because, despite our differences, we have always been able to unite around our core values: to protect and defend each other.
"I expect that to be the case after the US elections."
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IMO Trump would start twisting arms until all sides agreed to end the war. European NATO would have a vested interest in dealing with Zelensky. And Trump can threaten Putin with our nukes.
A Biden reelection means the war will drag on until the end of his 2nd term, if not longer. Biden would likely allow Zelensky to gradually escalate the war in hopes of causing enough political pain for Putin to force a retreat. But that approach could spin into disaster by bringing other players into the war. Biden really would bankrupt the US and Europe before admitting he mishandled the situation from the beginning.
Nope, Putin just has to wait until Ukraine runs out of bodies to thrown into the Russian meat grinder; which will be far sooner than Russia will.
Zelenskyy fucked up by attacking Russia proper. Russians aren't willing to die for Putin or Ukraine; but mother Russia? That is a completely different story.
"Russians aren't willing to die for Putin or Ukraine; but mother Russia? That is a completely different story."
I don't think that's much of a factor. It all depends how war weary the Russian people become of Putin's folly. Is there a growing threat for a revolution against the Putin regime by his opposition?