Ukraine's Surprise Attack
By: German Lopez (The New York Times)
Kiev has gambled and lost. The incursion into Russian territory has not drawn Russian troops from the trenches inside Ukraine. That's fairly obvious since Russian opposition has not been very robust. And now Ukraine occupying and defending captured Russian territory, as some sort of bargaining chip, will divert resources away from the battle lines inside Ukraine. Ukraine may have achieved a psychological victory but achieving that victory has weakened Ukraine's ability to defend itself and recapture Ukrainian territory.
It seems that Zelensky and the Kiev government recognize they will be forced to negotiate with Russia following elections in the United States. Neither Kamala Harris or Donald Trump have expressed intentions to continue dumping money into Joe Biden's quagmire.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Ukraine's efforts to retake territory from Russia have stalled. But the Ukrainian military has tried to get back at Moscow in other ways. In the past, it has launched drone attacks in Russia and backed hit-and-run incursions in which Russian exiles struck targets inside their former homeland.
Last week, Ukraine tried something new. Its own forces marched miles across the Russian border in a surprise operation. They now control some Russian land in the region of Kursk, including dozens of towns and villages. "It's an attempt to give Russia somewhat of a shock," my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, told me. "It could give Ukraine a win, or at least make them feel good for a few days. Does it change the larger calculus on the battlefield? That remains to be seen."
Ukraine's leaders are seeking to galvanize support at home and abroad for its war effort. An assault on Russian soil might not get Ukraine closer to seizing all of the land it has lost, but it shows that Ukraine can still surprise — and embarrass — its enemy.
Today's newsletter explains why Ukraine is trying a new tactic two years into a stalemate with Russia.
Potential upside
What does Ukraine stand to gain from its latest attack? Analysts and officials have pointed to a few possibilities:
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Ukraine wants to divert Russian troops from strategic locations. If the Kremlin moves soldiers from battlefields in northeastern, eastern or southern Ukraine to defend itself at home, Ukraine might have an easier time retaking its own land. Russia currently controls about 20 percent of Ukraine, and Ukrainian leaders say they want to retake all of it.
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Morale at home has declined. Ukraine's last big counteroffensive success came in the fall of 2022, when its military retook the northeastern region of Kharkiv. Meanwhile, soldiers continue to die, and civilians endure regular bombardments. Russia has taken bits of land in Ukraine's east and northeast. The economy remains weak. A major strike could help rebuild domestic confidence in the war effort.
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Ukraine wants to shore up support abroad. Kyiv has relied on aid from Western nations to defend itself. But voters in those countries are no longer as enthusiastic about supplying Ukraine with weapons. Some leaders, including Donald Trump, have suggested they want to cut off the aid. A battlefield victory against Russia, even if it's not strategically important, could get skittish supporters back on board.
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Ukraine wants to convince Washington that it can strike within Russia. American officials have barred Ukraine from using U.S.-made weapons to strike too deep into Russian territory. They worry that such an attack could lead Russia to act more recklessly. But if the current incursion doesn't lead to an escalation, American officials may allow future Ukrainian salvos farther across the border.
Will any of this work? Some analysts are skeptical. Russia's military drastically outnumbers Ukraine's. Moscow still has reserves of conscripts that it has not deployed in the war, so it might not need to divert troops from strategic locations to reinforce its borders. And the intended audience for this new move — in Ukraine and abroad — may not see much value if it doesn't help Ukraine win back its territory.
Planning ahead
Ukraine might also hope to use holdings in Kursk as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations, to trade for land previously seized by Russia.
To do that, Ukraine would have to actually keep what it takes. Given how overburdened its military is already, that may not be possible. And if Ukraine suffered heavy losses trying to hold foreign terrain, the incursion would amount to a disaster. “It’s a huge gamble on the part of the Ukrainians,” Eric said.
But Ukraine also has to plan for eventual negotiations with Russia. Trump has suggested that if he wins this year’s election, he will force Ukraine to work out a peace deal with Russia. That would likely require Ukraine to give up most or all of the territory that Russia currently holds.
Ukraine desperately wants to avoid that scenario. To do so, it needs something that Russia will want enough to make concessions.
More on the war
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Vladimir Putin criticized the West over Ukraine’s incursion, a sign that the attack has unsettled Russia even as Putin insists that it will not change his negotiating position.
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Ukraine planned the attack surreptitiously, disguising troop movements as training exercises. Senior officers learned of the offensive just days before it began.
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It is the biggest foreign incursion into Russia since World War II. “I’m happy to be riding a tank into Russia, and it is better than them driving tanks into our country,” a Ukrainian soldier told The Times.
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China and Russia are stepping up cooperation between their militaries, and holding joint exercises near Alaska and Taiwan in defiance of the U.S. and its allies.
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Support for Ukraine from the United States is waning. Europe may be capable of sustaining the stalemate for the foreseeable future but that doesn't bode well for any chance of Ukrainian victory. It is becoming clear that Ukraine will not drive entrenched Russian troops out of Ukraine using conventional means. Now the occupation and defense of captured Russian territory competes for resources needed on the battle lines inside Ukraine.
This incursion into Russian territory is actually forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table. And Russia holds the stronger position for negotiations.
Can they hold it?
Right now the Russian effort appears to have focused on evacuations. That kinda looks like Russia is preparing the battlefield. But that could also be a signal that Russia believes Ukraine can now be forced to negotiate. Putin has been making overtures for negotiation and Zelensky has rebuffed those overtures.
So far, Ukrainian forces are not threatening strategic resources in Belgorod or Kursk. And Belarus could send forces into Russia (consistent with mutual defense agreements) to surround the Ukrainians without becoming involved in the Ukrainian war. It doesn't look like the Ukrainian incursion has even relieved pressure on Kharkiv. Ukraine hasn't captured anything worth holding; it's only value is psychological.
I agree. They will have to withdraw.