U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier
By: Ben Casselman (The New York Times)
Bidenomics hasn't really been working after all. So, now the Dem-o-ratz are doing a little CYA.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2023 and early 2024 than previously reported, a sign that cracks in the labor market are more severe — and began forming earlier — than initially believed.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department said that monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.
The revisions, which are preliminary, are part of an annual process in which monthly estimates, based on surveys, are reconciled with more accurate but less timely records from state unemployment offices. The new figures, once finalized, will be incorporated into official government employment statistics early next year.
The updated numbers are the latest sign of vulnerability in the job market, which until recently had appeared rock solid despite months of high interest rates and economists' warnings of an impending recession. More recent data, which wasn't affected by the revisions, suggest job growth slowed further in the spring and summer, and the unemployment rate, though still relatively low at 4.3 percent, has been gradually rising.
Federal Reserve officials are paying close attention to the signs of erosion as they weigh when and how much to begin lowering interest rates. In a speech in Alaska on Tuesday, Michelle W. Bowman, a Fed governor, highlighted "risks that the labor market has not been as strong as the payroll data have been indicating," although she also said that the increase in the unemployment rate could be overstating the extent of the slowdown.
Investors, too, had been watching the revisions closely because of their implications for Fed policy. They were forced to wait longer than expected, however: The data, originally scheduled for a 10 a.m. release, was not published until after 10:30 a.m.
The revisions were unusually large, and were on the upper end of forecasters’ expectations, although a few economists had predicted a reduction of as much as one million jobs.
The new numbers show that hiring was slower nearly across the board than originally reported. There were large downward revisions in white-collar sectors like professional services and information, as well as in hospitality and retail. The transportation and warehousing sector, which includes many businesses involved in e-commerce, was one of the few in which job growth was revised up instead of down.
Still, the big picture remains relatively unchanged: Job growth is slowing, but not collapsing. The unemployment rate is rising, but layoffs remain low.
Indeed, the revisions to some extent help bring the job growth numbers into line with other data showing a more significant cooling in the labor market. Job openings, hiring and employee turnover have all slowed significantly over the past two years. The robust monthly payroll figures were something of an outlier.
Some economists have also argued that the labor market is in better shape than recent data suggests. The unexpected slowdown in hiring and uptick in unemployment in July, for example, may have partly reflected the impact of Hurricane Beryl, which temporarily shut down businesses in Texas. And government data may not fully reflect the effect of increased immigration, which has provided employers with a supply of needed workers.
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There has been an all too plain disconnect between Biden's boasts about the great economy and the conventional DNC claims that Harris will provide relief for the working class.
Democrats resolved that bit of pandering hypocrisy by simply avoiding accountability. Hey, Joe, make sure that oil plug is tight while you're under the bus; Dems don't want any leaks now.
This should put an end to the narrative that: “the economy is doing gangbusters with robust job creation, so why are Americans so gloomy about the economy?”
Luckily for the democrats this big story won't be carried on the front page by the media.
That narrative was sent to the crapper the moment they started talking about "fixing it" on day 1. If everything was going so great what is there to "fix"?
downward revision of about 28 percent.
how is that possible? That’s a massive miss.
Wow, and this from the New York Times...........................
Meh, 4.3% unemployment is negligible...
However, on topic. The lie is considerable.
"It's the economy, Stupid" - and the major area where Trump outruns Harris.
The idea that the New York Times, or the Washington Post, or USA Today, or CBS, NBC or ABC want Democrats to win is silly.
They are all large corporations whose business interests correspond much more to GOP ideology. They have individuals who are more liberal than others for sure, but the corporate position is always more conservative than not, and in terms of economic issues they are entirely aligned with the GOP.
I always say, and I think very accurately, that you are not really liberal or progressive unless you are so on economic issues as well as social issues. Major media does not align with progressive economic positions.
Nah, any supposition that most of those companies/corporations don’t lean heavily left, is just ludicrous. No other way to put it.
They’ve created a fantasy world where Fortune 500 corporations and Wall Street firms are all filled with fanatical right wingers out to suppress the poor working democrat working man. They think it’s 1933.
It hasn’t been true forever. Bush, when he was loooking to appoint a secretary of the treasury twenty five years ago had a hard time finishing a nominee from a Wall Street bank who was even nominally a republican.
Many have honed their gaslighting skills to new heights.
It’s pretty messed up.
this is from a Washington Post fact check of the Democratic convention last night
The implication of this fact check is definitely pro Trump.
The truth is nothing Clinton said was wrong, or unfair. In fact the fact checker confirms this. He just says Clinton should have gone back to include Reagan's job numbers. But why? Why not go back to Nixon or Eisenhower then ?
There have been six presidents since 1989, Bush I, Bush II and Trump on the Republican side, and Clinton, Obama, and Biden on the Democratic side. It is very fair to compare in this way.
According to the fact check, it is true that 50 out of the last 51 million American jobs (net) have been created by Democratic presidents.
The WAPO fact checker implies that Clinton wasnt being fair, which is ipso fatso a benefit to the GOP point of view.
The MSM is trying to prop Trump up.
Lol. One single fact check. One debatable claim within a fact check column measured against years of made up allegations and shilling for Democratic lies that dominated the headlines.
Which newspaper led the "30,000 lies" campaign against Trump using the exact same method of fact checking
If you think the MSM is propping up Trump, you really are doing your credibility no favors. It's one of the craziest arguments that can be made.
The very fact that the mainstream media refuses to have straight news stories that focus on Trump's bizarre rallies and statements is evidence they are giving him a lot of slack.
If Biden or Harris said a tenth of the crazy things Trump says it would be the headline of top of the fold stories in all the major media. When they do report on the crazy and offensive things Trump says it is buried in the middle of a two or three thousand word article .
Good God, that comment just proves how far out there you are John.
Wow, just wow!
Actually, I know what I am talking about.
It sounds like you would like to have reporting that did nothing but crucify Trump. People have ears and eyes and can make their own decisions without kibitzing from the news media. They report on what he says and, in TRUE journalistic form, let people make their own decisions.
Journalism is not telling people what to think but rather, reporting fact and letting people think.
Who has crucified Trump ?
The problem with Trump's lies is that too many people believe him.
Unemployment reached 10 pct during the Great Recession and 15 pct during the pandemic. It's typical for Clinton to blame those recessions on George W. Bush and Donald Trump while giving credit to Obama and Biden for the recoveries.
Wasn't it Bill Clinton who did away with Glass-Steagall and made the Great Recession possible?
You have to realize Bill Clinton is one of the dirtiest politicians to ever sit in the White House. Clinton is actually worse than Trump because Clinton is a trained lawyer.
Why doesn't Clinton highlight that 88 pct of the national debt has been created since his inauguration?
Trump asks his audiences, every time now, whether they want him to be nice, or to be mean , to Kamala Harris , and they cheer for "mean" like it is taking place in the Roman colosseum. Imagine if Harris asked her audiences if they want her to be mean or nice to trump and they all cheered for "mean". It would be the top headline in the New York Times the next day.
It doesnt even get mentioned prominently about trump in the major newspapers.
We've heard this same shit for eight years. Why is it newsworthy now?
This stuff is much more important in an election year.
That depends on what the meaning of the word “is” is.
Yep, I’m sure you think you do.
“The problem with Trump's lies is that too many people believe him.”
It is more insidious than that.
They may not believe the lies, but in their fear and desperation and ignorance have found a spokesman to confirm their fear and desperation and ignorance when they had not previously had an outlet.
Understandable in its simplicity but frightening in its appeal and potential application.
Congress, DOJ, NY DA's, FBI, need more?
wrong on all three
Your comment reminds me some of when Trump lied about the 2020 election results and millions of MAGA believed him. Same thing as when he lies about how he is being persecuted by the DOJ, FBI and NY DA's.
There is and was legitimate evidence against Trump in all of the cases that have been brought against him. What are the legal authorities supposed to do? Ignore evidence because trump will bitch about being treated unfairly? Im sure all criminal defendants would like to be able to do that.
Well an election year doesn't magically turn Clinton's lies into truth, either.
Trump's lies are such big exaggerations that only dimwits would accept them as truth. The big fact-checker story over the last 24 hours is Trump claimed Kamala Harris met with Putin days before the invasion of Ukraine. But was Trump's comment a parody, sarcasm, or a lie?
Who the hell is going to believe that Kamala Harris has been that large a presence on the national stage? Who the hell is going to believe that Kamala Harris could possibly exert any influence, one way or another, over Vladimir Putin? Only dimwits would believe Trump was lying when making such an unbelievable, overt exaggeration.
The only way to refute Trump's over-the-top statement is with the true facts about Kamala Harris lack of stature and experience on the world stage. No, Harris did not meet or speak with Putin simply because Harris isn't that important.
Russian collusion ring a bell? How about bringing fraud charges for supposedly changing business record. A never before seen precedent? Or maybe a phone call to Ukraine? How about running on the platform of "getting Trump" and everyone forgetting that bullshit? Or, maybe a 30+ year old supposed rape (actually assault) charge? Yeah. You guys are good at that shit. And lest we forget, the overall use of lawfare.
And yes, on all three counts.............and it is actually five. All under the lawfare category.
As Trump has been sinking like a rock stuck in quicksand the MSM has begun to prop him up to conserve the "horse race" aspect of the election.
Lol
quicksand the MSM has begun to prop him up to conserve the "horse race" aspect of the election.
do you think the department of labor is part of the MSM?
Why not wait until they are final?
Because Trump needs their help now.
Why wait to callout misinformation?
We already know what they claim would be wrong.
Well, that's sure a blunder butted argument. Don't the lower numbers make a compelling case that electing Kamala Harris will address the problem? Harris has been making tepid arguments that she will create jobs and fix the kitchen table economy.
Bidenomics was getting in the way of Kamala Harris' campaign promises. How could Harris promise to fix a great economy?
this is Biden’s actual secretary of commerce:
Reporter: Nearly a million jobs "created" since Kamala took office do not exist.
Raimondo: “I don’t believe it because I’ve never heard Trump say anything truthful.”
Reporter: "It is from the Bureau of Labor."
Raimondo. "I'm not familiar with that."
How are these people able to tie their shoes without injuring themselves ? An actual cabinet member dismissing US GOvernment data as trump lies.
CBS and NBC did not even mention that almost a million jobs claimed just disappeared on their nightly newscast. .
They work so hard for the Democrats and still get bitched at when they accidently leave in something negative about Biden.
Of course. Anyone can see that the Washington Post etc.. is biased towards Trump,
DOH!