Ukraine's Kursk offensive is a huge strategic error
By: Andrew Latham (The Hill)
The Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast has become a gamble that didn't pay off. Zelensky's threats of retribution doesn't seem to have shaken Russian resolve to prosecute it's war in eastern Ukraine. And Ukraine's glorious victory over Russia hasn't translated into quieting doubts by Europe and the United States.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proven himself a master of the political stage, a gifted orator capable of stirring emotions and garnering global support. However, his recent military incursion into Russia marks a departure from the realm of diplomacy and into the territory of strategic blunder.
This reckless gambit, more akin to a desperate stunt worthy of a second-rate actor than a seasoned statesman, diverts critical resources from the primary battlefield while offering negligible strategic gain.
While the incursion has captured headlines and inflicted some measure of psychological damage on Russia, such superficial victories do little to alter the fundamental dynamics of the conflict. Russia, despite its setbacks, remains a formidable military power with a vast arsenal and a nuclear deterrent. Ukraine, while demonstrating courage and resilience, faces a daunting challenge in overcoming this overwhelming disparity.
More critically, this diversion of forces from the main theater of war is a huge strategic miscalculation. Every soldier, tank and piece of artillery deployed in the Russian incursion represents a loss to the Ukrainian effort to liberate occupied territories. These resources, if concentrated on the front lines, could potentially yield tangible gains, weakening Russian defenses and creating opportunities for decisive breakthroughs.
Instead, Ukraine finds itself embroiled in a costly and ultimately futile endeavor. While the world watches in fascination, the real battle for Ukraine's future continues to unfold elsewhere. Zelensky's decision to gamble on a high-stakes publicity stunt is a tragic misjudgment that may have far-reaching consequences.
It is time for sober reflection. The Ukrainian people deserve leadership focused on practical, achievable objectives, not on grandstanding gestures. While courage and defiance are admirable, they must be tempered with strategic wisdom. The path to victory lies not in symbolic acts of defiance, but in the methodical, relentless pursuit of territorial liberation.
This is not to diminish the bravery of Ukrainian forces who have undoubtedly faced significant challenges in this incursion — but courage without strategic direction is a recipe for disaster. The question that must be asked is whether the risks outweigh the potential rewards. Right now, the evidence suggests a resounding negative.
Moreover, it is essential to consider the potential consequences of such actions. A prolonged incursion into Russia could escalate the conflict, drawing in other nations and potentially leading to a catastrophic global confrontation. It is a dangerous game of chicken, with the stakes for humanity as a whole being unimaginably high.
Ukraine faces a critical juncture. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but it is clear that the focus must remain on the liberation of occupied territories. To squander precious resources on a symbolic gesture is a luxury the country cannot afford. It is time to return to the core mission and to avoid distractions that threaten to undermine the ultimate goal.
The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher. Ukraine must demonstrate not only courage, but also wisdom and strategic acumen. The incursion into Russia is a step in the wrong direction.
Andrew Latham is a professor of international relations at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minn., a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, and a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities in Washington, D.C.
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Ukraine's successful incursion into Russian territory is beginning to look like another quagmire. Has Zelensky's humiliation of Russia encouraged an end to the fighting and repatriation of Ukrainian territory? Did the United States and Europe really agree to Zelensky's glorious war of retribution? There doesn't seem to be much celebration outside of Kiev.