The key swing states and counties that handed Trump the White House - a visual analysis
By: Will Craft, Alex Clark, Andrew Witherspoon, Ashley Kirk, Lucy McCormick and Philip McMahon. Web design by Harry Fischer (the Guardian)
Here is a cool web page design that provides a more granular analysis of available results. It's worth taking a look just for entertainment value. So far, the results suggest Trump bettered his 2016 performance in many areas while Kamala Harris under performed compared to Biden in 2020. But that's just the horse race. The implications of a Trump win (with down ballot coattails) can't be ignored.
The Senate filibuster is safe. There won't be any sort of serious attempt to set aside the filibuster rules as a political expedient.
The Supreme Court won't be packed. And Justices that Democrats have been targeting won't be impeached. Clarence Thomas may take this opportunity to retire but he would be replaced with a conservative Justice.
Abortion will not return as a national issue. More states have put the issue before voters and the results are more nuanced than the binary choice Democrats have been trying to impose on the nation. Roe v. Wade won't be coming back; the electorate is moving on.
Neoliberal ideology has taken another hit. Free trade won't be quite as unfettered as supply-siders envisioned. Joe Biden used trade sanctions as a weapon to exert influence over adversaries; unfettered free trade was a carrot to encourage falling in line. The rule based global order (which really is based on unfettered movement of goods and people) is facing restraints. Believe it or not, this has created a firewall against the growing influence of a global oligarchy.
US support and involvement in the Ukrainian war has become unpredictable. No one (including Putin) knows how the United States will react or continue. With Trump in charge, an invasion to capture Moscow is just as likely as the US withdrawing support from Ukraine. There must be a lot of sweaty palms across Europe this morning. The predictability of the Cold War playbook is gone.
There's much more to discuss. But we'll have four years to cover all of it. Like it or not, the 2024 election really does look like a referendum on party politics and, in particular, Democrat politics. The coastal elites (of both parties) didn't deliver. This really was a rural election and flyover country ruled the day.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Donald Trump has won the majority of electoral college votes to defeat Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.
Despite polling gains for the Democrats after Biden's exit from the race in July, Harris failed to maintain a lead and the election was neck-and-neck in the final weeks of the campaign.
As of 9.10 ET (14.10 GMT) on Wednesday, more than 2,800 of nearly 3,200 counties had returned more than 90% of their votes. The results show that America has firmly swung back to the Republicans. The Democrats won 2020 by expanding their share of votes across the country, but 90% of counties swung back to the Republicans in 2024.
The Republicans managed to take three key swing states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia. That was enough to win, even with Nevada and Arizona races still undeclared. At the time of publication, no swing state had been called for the Democrats.
Below, there is a granular picture of how Trump won the election, looking at how every county's vote has changed compared with the 2020 presidential election.
While not every vote has been counted, it is clear that the results leave the map in a sea of red.
Trump managed to win by gaining support across the board. This has put him in a position to gain not only a majority of electoral college votes - he is also likely to win the popular vote.
Data notes
The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press. AP "call" the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.
Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night and in the following days as more data on voter turnout becomes available.
Official results can take days or weeks to be fully finalised. This is often because of the verification process of absentee, mail-in and provisional ballots. In some states, mail-in ballots can be received and counted several days after election day.
County results are only included in the interactive if over 90% of precincts within the county have reported ballot data.
Demographic data used has been sourced from the US Census American Community Survey 2022 five-year estimates.
Design by Harry Fischer
Tags
Who is online
497 visitors
Seems like the thing to do on the day after an election. The United States looks a lot different today than it did yesterday. And the results seem to suggest that the country is more unified than we've been told.
It's looks like the once controversial candidate and former president has a mandate to govern. The Popular vote was a shock to me.
Why is Kamala Harris waiting until commute time before speaking to her supporters? The shock won't have dissipated by then anyway. And the delay only allows time for recriminations, accusations, and blame to take hold and fester.
The 2026 midterm cycle starts in less than 24 hours. (Oh, joy!) Harris leaving her supporters in the lurch certainly won't encourage them to hope for 2026 or help restart her political career. Seems like Harris is mishandling the moment.
Biden got 81+ million votes, Kamala so far has 67 million, did 14 million democrats really abandon the party?
He was recalling 2020 and Biden's vote count
Biden got 81 million in 2020, that is 14 million more than Harris has so far.
CNN shows that Biden received 81+ million votes and Trump received 74+ million votes.
Voter turnout in 2016 was close to 138 million. In 2020, turnout increased to 158.5 million. So far the turnout for the 2024 election appears to be coming in at about 140 million, tracking closer to the 2016 election.