More Data Needed to Understand Contrails, their Climate Effect & Develop Mitigation
By: The International Air Transport Association (IATA)
For those who have derided, ridiculed, mocked, and otherwise poked fun at the grassroots 'chemtrails' warnings from the common folks in flyover country. This is their 'we told ya so' moment.
Now sweep aviation under the rug again and tell us how gas kitchen ranges are the culprits for climate change. Quote all the institutional experts who claim gas fired water heaters are the existential threat to civilization. Let's hear from the liberal elite again about how those raising alarms over aviation are the nutters.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called for urgent action to deepen the understanding on the formation and climate impact of aviation contrails to develop effective mitigation measures. The newly released IATA report Aviation Contrails Climate Effect: Tackling Uncertainties & Enabling Solutions (pdf) calls for a strengthening of collaboration between research and technological innovation, coupled with policy frameworks to address aviation's non-CO2 emissions through more atmospheric data.
The report highlights the complexity of contrail science, noting gaps in the understanding of how contrails form, or when they could persist, and how they impact the climate. The lack of high-resolution, real-time data on atmospheric conditions (particularly humidity and temperature at cruising altitudes) hinders precise contrail forecasting.
"The industry and its stakeholders are working to address the impact of non-CO2 emissions on climate change, particularly contrails. To ensure that this effort is effective and without adverse effects, we must better understand how and where contrails form and shrink the uncertainties related to their climate impact. "Action now" means more trials, collection of more data, improvement of climate models, and maturing technologies and operations. Formulating and implementing regulations based on insufficient data and limited scientific understanding is foolish and could lead to adverse impacts on the climate. That is why the most important conclusion from this report is to urge all stakeholders to work together to resolve current gaps in the science so that we can take effective actions," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.
Recommendations
With current levels of understanding, the report made the following recommendations:
- In the immediate term (2024-2030), the priority for mitigating aviation's climate change impact should be on reducing CO2 emissions over the uncertain gains that could stem from contrail detection and their mitigation. Over this time, increasing airline participation in sensor programs, continuing scientific research, and improving humidity and climate models should be the focus of work on contrail mitigation.
- Mid-term actions (2030-2040) should involve establishing standards for data transmission, continuous validation of models, and encouraging aircraft manufacturers to include provisions for meteorological observations, as well as selected avoidance.
- Longer-term actions (2040-2050): Aircraft should be continuously providing data and the models and infrastructure should be there and be reliable. The community will have at this point a more complete understanding of the non-CO2 effects of alternative fuels, with extended mitigation measures. These action items collectively aim to mitigate the climate impact of aviation while advancing scientific understanding and technological capabilities.
Background on Aviation's Non-CO2 Emissions
Aviation's impact on climate extends beyond CO2 emissions, with non-CO2 effects such as contrails and nitrogen oxides (NOx) also contributing to global warming. Persistent contrails, formed in ice-supersaturated regions, can transform into cirrus clouds which reflect incoming solar radiation (during the day) as well as trap outgoing heat. On balance, it is understood that contrails have a warming effect on the climate, with diurnal, seasonal, and geographical variations. However, despite extensive studies, significant uncertainties exist with respect to the capacity to predict individual contrail formation and their specific climate impact.
Initiatives and Trials: Recent collaborations among meteorologists, climate researchers, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers have yielded new insights that underscore the need for enhanced data collection and analyses of the likely air traffic network complications regarding any solutions. Trials with modified flight paths and alternative fuels have shown potential yet limited efficacy due to the variability of atmospheric conditions and the localized nature of where contrails occur.
Technological Advances and Future Directions: Advancements in developing humidity sensors to be placed on aircraft are critical for contrail prediction and avoidance strategies. Current sensor technology on commercial aircraft lacks the required sensitivity and response time, and there are only a handful of such sensors in operation at altitude. Ongoing research aims to develop more accurate, robust, and scalable solutions, and the use of sensors on a limited population of aircraft would allow the necessary improvement and validation of numerical weather prediction models.
About the Report
Aviation Contrails Climate Effect: Tackling Uncertainties & Enabling Solutions (pdf) will be discussed at the upcoming IATA Annual General Meeting in Dubai, 2-4 June. The report was developed in collaboration with the following organizations and companies:
- Aerospace Technology Institute
- Airbus
- Airlines for America
- Air Transport Action Group (ATAG)
- Boeing
- FAAM Airborne Laboratory
- Forschungszentrum Julich
- German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
- German Aerospace Center (DLR)
- In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science
- Royal Aeronautical Society
- University of Leeds
- World Meteorological Organization
For more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org
Notes for Editors:
- IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 340 airlines comprising over 80% of global air traffic.
- You can follow us on X for announcements, policy positions, and other useful industry information.
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- Global Media Day 2024 media kit
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So, why are the nutters in flyover country being proven right and the sophisticated urban liberals being proven wrong? Somehow 'told ya so' seems inadequate when confronted with the collapse of civilization as we know it.
Let's forget our troubles and all fly to Disneyland!
They're not. That claim itself is completely "nutters". No where in this article was "flyover country being proven right". No where does it say there is any sort of conclusive evidence proving contrails cause any problems with climate or the atmosphere or causing respiratory problems among any populace and they're certainly not chemicals being disperesed by a deep state in an attempt to control minds.
The most this article offers to the moron conspiracy theorists is that there are still "Uncertainties" when it comes to understanding exactly how they form and what effects they might have on our planet, but some physicists say that's true of butterfly wing flaps as well. Anyone taking this article as some sort of proof the conspiracy theorists are right should have their heads examined so they can identify the apparent brain eating virus sooner.
This is proof that some conspiracy nutters can't help but twist logic so out of shape pretzels look straight by comparison.
What the article is calling for is junk science to counter the junk science of the IPCC. You see, as ground transportation electrifies, aviation becomes a larger contributor to climate change. The pros and cons have to get their junk science in place before the political tipping point.
IPCC has already declared that contrails contribute to climate change. The uncertainty is only a matter of degree.
In a world where black spatulas are killers, those warning about chemtrails are sane. Of course the experts understand that many aircraft in the commercial fleet are not designed to land with as much weight as takeoff weight. Fuel is dumped over flyover country to lighten aircraft. Water waste (and often water tanks) are dumped over flyover country to lighten the aircraft. (Yes, urban air travelers have been literally shitting on flyover country for decades.) And some commercial aircraft have participated in science experiments that involved spraying liquids to create aerosols. Here's a list (incomplete) generated by Google's AI:
I don't think there is any word loved more by conspiracy theorists than "uncertainties". If science can't 100% explain how something works and all its effects on the world we live in that leaves room for the conspiracy theorist. Just a crack in the armor, just 0.1% is all that's needed for a conspiracy theorist to insert their 'conspiracy du jour', from "it was demons", "a miracle", "ghosts", "aliens", "lizard people" to the ever elusive undefinable "deep state". Perhaps our inability to ever have a truly comprehensive understanding of universal physics and quantum physics will be humanities downfall as we continue to listen to, reward and allow a seat at the table for conspiracy theorists simply because we can't yet prove beyond a shadow of a doubt how some things in the universe function.
Have aircraft dumped shit on people? Yes, absolutely, that has never been a contested conspiracy, that is established fact. What contrails are as studied and explained in physics is also not in question. The ongoing studies to understand more about them also does not prove anything other than it's not junk science but an ongoing exploration of our universe and our effects on it. And the uncertainty in degree isn't something that can justify the majority of contrail conspiracies, it's the difference between a butterfly wing moving air and truly believing that flap of a wing is causing a hurricane on the other side of the planet.
I thought that is what science actually was ? As i thought it was the never ending process of proving, or disproving, that which so many due to power and or profits for prophets, wish to prove or disaprove because said proven isn't benficial to the one saying I disaprove even though I can't actually disprove, so i have a hunch that Aliens, legal or not, had infiltrated Uncle Sam I Am, the Butcherer of Alice, as he kept her in Chains, so she wouldn't unleash the flames, that flaming ass wholeheartedly claims that are emitted so that permitted is enuff stuff to ignite a spark that is clearly seen and illuminated much farther than natural light could ever reach, asz around, is presented conspiracies that are based in purpose to increase someones profit or power, and that someone is somehow also the said source, said again and often enough, of course, just to speculate for those with dirty minds, cause brain washing benefits are enormous, as Trumpm can attest to, as we failed the arrest and the test due, due to spears thrown by cons who are pros as anarchy can petal rows of those up that steep pull in under the pews, for they are theirs to use, and where this a prophet for profits the truth and good peep holes shine through, unfortnately, they are sometimes eclipsed by ignorance, as the blurred visionary views of the absurd are far more spreadable than the incredible edible legs, when giving them a leg up, for the minions opinions given that excuse their medicriocy and failure to achieve, all by selecting the correct ration of lies to rationalize, as they forge forward with easily defeatable wons, butwhence heard, simpler for they to accept the absurd than to admit they have lost and are the reasons, cult liters and manipulators of quartz, are watches that need moored ports to a peer, so the time can be kept, stationary or reversed, as we sometimes seem cursed, cause the greedy rich Thirsten Howell wasn't the first, nor was he the last, he was just another wealthy buyer of people through money's up word, cause buy the way , he preferred Ginger over Maryanne, the life long posed question, but HOWELL could luvy not tell he of her guilty Gilligan man cave sins when she did exploit he, could it be that they both were ass cut from the same turd, or could it be that Thirsten was actually not Luvy's first, asz.he was the 3rd
And a slong as there are ridiculous profits to be made buy ridiculous people, there will be ridiculous people spreading ridiculous conspiracies, it's one of the worst of human disease, asz open and spread lips and legs, leaves one to beg, butt in Trumps case, just a prostituted capitol P, to start the Peg
No this is not a 'we told ya so' moment! The braindead numbfucks talking about 'chemtrails' are saying planes are spraying chemicals for population control which is absurd. What you posted has to do with global warming gases and nothing to do with 'chemtrails'. Fuck, do better.
is his first name really Abbey ...?
These quotes are from the article listed below....
"According to recent estimates of Travel + Leisure, about 7,782 to 8,755 commercial planes are flying in the sky at any second"
"Still, it’s important to note that commercial flights make up only about 46% of all flights (2021). Other types, such as private, cargo, and military jets , are much harder to track and calculate. If we count them in, the total number might rise to around 15,500 to 17,500 at any second!"
How Many Planes Are In The Sky Right Now?
Airplanes are not going away. And because weight is of primary consideration, the vast majority of them will be powered by fossil fuels.
Vapor trails simply don't cover enough of the sky at any one time to have any impact on daily weather, let alone climate. Here in Colorado, we frequently get what are called "wave clouds" over an in lee of the mountains, caused by moisture in the air flow. They can cover a large area and last for hours
Here's a site that shows our ever-changing and active weather pattern this time of year. Lots of clouds, but no vapor trails.
Satellite Loop Past 24 Hours – iWeatherNet