Reporter's Notebook: Russia's intentions emerge with Ukraine troop buildup
By: Amy Kellogg (Fox News)
Biden has successfully created a phony crisis based on an 'IF'. You'd think that, after 80 years, these Deep State thinkers would have figured out how Russia does things. An incompetent diplomatic corps and a self-serving intelligence bureaucracy has led Biden down the path of irrational fearmongering. Now the Biden administration is in the position of having to prove they aren't all idiots.
So far, the only country hurt by Biden's hair-on-fire 'IF' has been Ukraine. Ukraine has become a dumping ground for American munitions that has to be stored and guarded. Ukraine has been forced to become a belligerent militaristic nation in the region. The people of Ukraine are being trained to fight an insurgent war. Embassies are being abandoned. Air travel is being curtailed. Everyone is avoiding Ukraine because Russia might, possibly, maybe invade. With European friends like these, who needs enemies?
Yes, Biden has, at the least, given the Ukrainian people something to think about. Biden is protecting Poland, Romania, and Europe. Biden has pledged that he will definitely NOT send troops into Ukraine; Ukraine is only a killing zone for high tech military might. And Ukraine is supposed to be grateful for the war that Biden has been beating the drum about.
How can a weak minded President like Biden show strength? The Biden administration's knee-jerk response was to prepare for war. And then Biden emphatically declared that the United States will not fight that war. Biden's knee jerk war policy approach has roiled the western economies, introduced uncertainty into Eastern Europe, and has raised questions about the United States diplomatic abilities.
Biden's message has been that IF Russia invades, they'll be subjected to additional economic sanctions. There won't be a Nord stream pipeline which punishes Europe more than Russia. And Biden had the audacity to claim that Putin has not decided if he will invade. It's difficult to believe that Russia's government is as inept and incompetent as the Biden administration.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, says Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to "create tension" by positioning troops at the Ukrainian border.
Many in the West have opined that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely must be doing "something" of significance.
After all, he didn't mass all those troops on Ukraine's borders for a little exercise. Or even a big exercise.
But according to Russian foreign policy insider Dmitry Suslov, Russia's moves are going according to plan.
"The whole reason behind the concentration of troops by Russia at the Ukrainian border is to create tension, to accompany the Russian political demands with the demonstration of military force, which has already brought some significant positive results to Russia," Suslov, who is deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, told Fox News.
"From the Russian perspective, and this is the predominant opinion really widespread in Moscow, without the concentration of the Russian troops, without belligerent rhetoric, without speculation about the 'military-technical' response by Russia, Russian security guarantee demands would have gone directly to the dustbins everywhere in the West."
Suslov explained that Russia considered escalation a "tool of diplomacy," so Ukraine shouldn't count on seeing the back of its tanks until Moscow's demands are met. Those demands, well-known to many by now, are a pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO and that an East European buffer zone of some sort between the alliance and Russia is configured. Also key: that Donbas, comprising those eastern Ukrainian regions now controlled by Russian-backed separatists, is given a significant degree of autonomy as spelled out by the as-yet unfulfilled Minsk agreements.
"The implementation of the Minsk agreements would both deliver the kind of Ukraine which Russia wants: a decentralized Ukraine, a Ukraine which, by definition, cannot be consolidated on an anti-Russian basis, or on the basis of Ukrainian ethnic nationalism, as it is today with Ukrainian language, Ukrainian nationalist ideology and so on and so forth, being the basis of their national identity." Suslov continued, adding that Russia didn't want Ukraine to be "a Western fortress at the edge of the Russian border."
But, to Ukrainians aspiring to a future hitched to Europe, Russia's wants haven't been their concern. They've worried about losing more territory to Russia after what happened to Crimea in 2014. The West has stood by their rights to choose the security alliances or arrangements they wanted, and their self-determination.
Suslov claimed a full invasion of Ukraine would not serve Russia's interests. Instead, he said it would "result in enormous costs - economic, social, political, foreign policy, military. It will not be kind of a parade. It will be a very difficult military operation, followed by a guerrilla war, because there will be insurgency from different places in Ukraine and so on and so forth. And I don't think that anyone in the world would among the great powers, including China, would explicitly support Russia in such an endeavor."
Suslov added, "Russia, I think, will continue to look as if it is preparing for invasion unless the Russian demands are addressed."
I asked Suslov if the crippling energy costs hurting Europe were part of this pressure campaign. He said no; he saw Europe's problems as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the slower-than-expected transition to green energy on the continent. But, he added, Russia certainly was not running to the rescue by voluntarily opening the taps.
"It is weird for the European Union to be surprised with this Russian refusal because Russia would have certainly increased its volumes of supplies to the European Union if we were friends, if the relations were based on partnership. But come on, we perceive each other as adversaries. So, you expect a friendly behavior from the party, which the European Union has made its adversary against, which the European Union has adopted sanctions and continues to promise new and new sanctions? This is bizarre."
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Russia is objecting to NATO. NATO only exists to fight Russia; there is no other purpose for NATO. Has Russia objected to Ukraine joining the European Union?
The exercise has, at least, shown Ukrainians that NATO won't be there when the crap hits the fan. Ukraine will have to fight an insurgent war and will become a kill zone for high tech weapons. Only the Ukrainians would suffer if and when NATO comes to the rescue. With friends like that, who needs enemies?
Ukraine needs to demand Russia show proof of vaccination and masks before invading.
Joe should send our very best to Ukraine. The people he has in charge of our southern border security come to mind. They can install the very same practices that have allowed over a million illegals into this country in a year. By the end of the month there will be so many Russians in Ukraine there won't be any reason to invade. The Russians will sue for peace; demand an election; and put the next pro Russian government in place. Problem solved.