U.S. tracked China spy balloon from launch on Hainan Island along unusual path
By: Story by Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris, Jason Sa
What in the holy hell???
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By the time a Chinese spy balloon crossed into American airspace late last month, U.S. military and intelligence agencies had been tracking it for nearly a week, watching as it lifted off from its home base on Hainan Island near China’s south coast.
U.S. monitors watched as the balloon settled into a flight path that would appear to have taken it over the U.S. territory of Guam. But somewhere along that easterly route, the craft took an unexpected northern turn, according to several U.S. officials, who said that analysts are now examining the possibility that China didn’t intend to penetrate the American heartland with its airborne surveillance device.
The balloon floated over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands thousands of miles away from Guam, then drifted over Canada, where it encountered strong winds that appear to have pushed the balloon south into the continental United States, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence. A U.S. fighter jet shot the balloon down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4, a week after it crossed over Alaska.
unt suggests that the ensuing international crisis that has ratcheted up tensions between Washington and Beijing may have been at least partly the result of a mistake.
Meanwhile, the White House on Tuesday said that three other objects shot down over North America in the last week may have posed no national security threat, striking perhaps the clearest distinction yet between those flying anomalies and the suspected spy balloon. John Kirby, the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, told reporters that the U.S. intelligence community “will not dismiss as a possibility” that the three craft instead belonged to a commercial organization or research entity and were therefore “benign.”
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has sent spy balloons over Guam before, as well as Hawaii, to monitor U.S. military installations, officials have said. But the days-long flyover of the continental United States was novel, and it sparked confusion inside the Chinese government as diplomats scrambled to disseminate a cover story that the balloon had been blown off course while it was collecting innocuous meteorological data, U.S. officials said.
The furor caught Beijing on its back foot. Initially it expressed “regrets” over what it insisted was a wayward weather balloon. Then it shifted to criticizing Washington for what it said was overreacting, and this week it accused the United States of sending 10 spy balloons over China . The White House has strongly denied the claim as false. “We are not flying surveillance balloons over China. I’m not aware of any other craft that we’re flying over — into Chinese airspace,” Kirby said Monday.
U.S. intelligence and military agencies tracked the balloon as it launched from Hainan Island. Intelligence analysts are unsure whether the apparent deviation was intentional or accidental, but are confident it was intended for surveillance, most likely over U.S. military installations in the Pacific. Either way the incursion into U.S. airspace was a major misstep by the PLA, prompting a political and diplomatic furor and deeper scrutiny by the United States and its allies of Beijing’s aerial espionage capabilities.
Its crossing into U.S. airspace was a violation of sovereignty and its hovering over sensitive nuclear sites in Montana was no accident, officials said, raising the possibility that even if the balloon were inadvertently blown over the U.S. mainland, Beijing apparently decided to seize the opportunity to try to gather intelligence.
The incident was just the latest indication of how purposefully China is going about expanding its surveillance capabilities — from advanced satellite technology to balloons, officials said.
The balloon fleet is a part of a much broader air surveillance effort that includes sophisticated satellite systems and into which the Chinese government has poured what analysts say are billions of dollars of investment over the years.
“This was a discrete program — part of a larger set of programs that are about gaining greater clarity about military facilities in the United States and in a variety of other countries,” said one senior U.S. official. It appears to be meant to “augment the satellite systems.”
The balloon was launched from the ground, part of a program run in part by the PLA air force, and it may have been taken off course by strong high-altitude winds, officials said. It was partly directed by air currents and partly piloted remotely, they said. With propellers and a rudder, it has the capability to be maneuvered.
After the balloon launched, computer modeling conducted by The Washington Post indicates steering currents would have pushed it due east over the Pacific Ocean, probably passing between the Philippines and Taiwan.
Around Jan. 24, when the balloon would have been roughly about 1,000 miles south of Japan, model simulations show it began to gain speed and rapidly veer north. This would have been in response to a strong cold front that had unleashed exceptionally frigid air over northern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
Ordinarily, atmospheric steering motions would have kept the balloon on much more of a west to east course, historical weather data shows. However, the intense cold front forced the jet stream and high altitude steering currents to dip south and may have scooped the balloon northward.
The airship entered U.S. airspace off Alaska on Jan. 28, crossing Canada and reentering the United States over Idaho on Jan. 31, one day before it was spotted over Montana by civilians, prompting a ground stoppage at the airport in Billings, as U.S. officials considered shooting it down.
When officials determined they could not mitigate the risk to people on the ground, they decided to wait until they could shoot it down over water.
Analysts are still awaiting the retrieval of the balloon’s payload, which officials estimated to be the size of three school buses, but “it doesn’t look like it’s a dramatic new capability,” said a second U.S. official. “It looks like it’s more collection — everybody always wants more.”
Kirby said Monday: “These balloons have provided limited additive capabilities to the [People’s Republic of China’s] other intelligence platforms used over the United States. But in the future, if the PRC continues to advance this technology, it certainly could become more valuable to them.”
U.S. officials stressed that they took steps to defeat any efforts by China to gather sensitive information from military sites. Any such information or communications were encrypted, Kirby has said.
“The name of the game of spying is always new capability, new mitigation,” said the second official.
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So this WASN'T that much of a surprise? WTH is the REAL story..................Did they know all along or not?
Still doesn't excuse the Chinese roll in this.
I don't care if their spy balloon veered off course or not; they knew exactly where it was at all times- and could have informed the US/Canada so it could have been brought down before causing an international incident.
As for the Brandon Administration their lies and fuck ups concerning this spy balloon just keep getting bigger and bigger. All it is going to take is someone with access to all of the information to finally step forward and out them to Republicans in the House.
What? The Biden administration said 3 flew over during the trump administration. But now balloons over the US are Novel? These guys need to settle on a lie, their sycophants aren’t smart enough to keep up if the lies keep changing.
So the incompetence of the Biden Adminstration is bigger than we thought.
Biden's military was aware of the balloon, Trump's military never saw it. Put's Biden's well above Trumps.
The incompetence and impotence of #45's criminal enterprise of an administration is unparalleled/unprecedented.
The fault is with the military, not Trump.
The military routinely kept sensitive and important information away from Trump.
Biden's military, Trumps' military is bullshit. The military doesn't belong to a President.
Brandon's military saw it. Lost track of it. Then saw it again when it was already over US airspace. Knew exactly what it was; but didn't shoot it down over Alaska or over the Pacific Ocean. Nor did they tell Canada, state governors, Canada/US air traffic (commercial or private). In fact if it wasn't for someone snapping some pics from the ground of it as it floated over Nevada who knows how long it would have unreported? Brandon did shut down US airspace and airports a few times as the balloon meandered it's way across the US. What is a little more disruption to US commercial air traffic at this point? How much worse can it really get?
As for the three supposed incursions into US airspace that occurred during the Trump administration. Brandon's people still have to prove it. W/O any visual records they are going to have a nearly impossible sell. Especially considering Brandon's defense system gave out at least one false reading over the Great Lakes this weekend. US jets were dispatched to the coordinates and found nothing.
The Brandon Administration needs to get their never ending lies and cover ups straightened out. Only their never questioning sheeple believe what they are saying.
“The fault is with the military…”
Agreed.
And yet year after year, an unimaginable sum of our discretionary spending is wasted on antiquated systems with illogical outcomes. Eisenhower was right.
Not sure about that.
The military regularly held things back from the Trump administration; and operated behind it's back. That has been proven.
Milley is still serving after that BS. So much for the military serving under the CoC. Guess it matters who is in office if they feel the need to or not. Little worried that the military no longer serves the Constitution above all else. If a CoC the military leadership approves of gives out a bad order- like firing on US citizens- would the military leadership obey it?
Of course the military wasn't the only guilty party of withholding information from Trump.
Not by a fucking long shot.
I think that calling his Chinese counterpart was prudent.
He is serving a four year appointment unless the President asks for his resignation, neither Trump nor Biden has done that. He is a Presidential advisor and works for the SecDCef. Trump had 7 SEC Def's, 3 in his last ear so it was a bit chaotic in 5D636, Pentagon.
I have briefed GEDN Millay twice when he was the Army CoS and of course read the news and talked to my old friends in the Joint Staff. I think that GEN Milley has done his duty and done it well. I have no doubt of his loyalty to the Constitution or civilian control of the military.
Without informing the President first? Why would it be prudent? Why would Milley want to instill in the Chinese that there was any chance Trump was going to attack them militarily? What gave Milley that moronic notion to begin with? If his call had resulted in a Chinese preemptive strike against the US- that would be directly on him.
Trump should have fired him but was dealing with Democrats in Congress and election challenges; and Brandon doesn't know what day it is. Milley is being a good Democrat surrogate; so there is no reason to remove him.
Still doesn't excuse what Milley did with China. As for Trump- he thought the presidency was like his TV show. He could fire people at a whim. If they didn't want to deal with that; then they shouldn't have taken the job to start with.
Glad you do. His track record doesn't inspire me with any confidence of that what-so-ever.
The US had intelligence that indicated that the Chinese were worried about an attack by the US. Millay wanted to de-escalate that situation. The first call was coordinated with his boss, the Sec Def mand results reported to the National Security Agency. The 2nd call was 8 Jan 21 when there was uncertainty of Trumps mental stability.
Needed to be repeated. (bold added by me)
As per usual, the "authorities", aka the government, seemingly know much more about these spying devices than they wish to tell to the American people.
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