Donald Trump's Chances of Winning 2024 Election Soar to Near-Record High
By: James Bickerton (Newsweek)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By James Bickerton US News ReporterFOLLOW
Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election surged to a near record high since he announced his candidacy in November 2022 with a leading bookmaker on Monday.
After the Supreme Courtruled unanimously that the former president can appear on the ballot in Colorado—overturning a previous decision from the state's supreme court—the Betfair odds on Trump securing a second term surged to 50 percent, up from 6/5 or 45.5 percent on Sunday.
Speaking to Newsweek, Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said the latest odds are Trump's most favorable with the company since he announced his 2024 presidential bid with the exception of "about an hour" in September when they hit 51 percent.
In December, the Colorado Supreme Court had concluded Trump was constitutionally ineligible to serve a second term as president due to "Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution," which deals with insurrection. The 14th Amendment states no person shall "hold any office, civil of military" if they previously swore an oath "to support the Constitution" then went on to engage in "insurrection or rebellion."
Trump's critics argue his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result, including the storming of Congress by hundreds of his supporters on January 6 2021, constituted an insurrection thus making him ineligible to serve a second term.
The Supreme Court ruled "States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 [of the 14th Amendment] with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency." It did not comment on whether Trump had engaged in an insurrection,
In the latest Betfair odds, released after Monday's ruling, President Joe Biden was the second most favored candidate to win in November with odds of 11/4, or 26.7 percent. He was followed by Michelle Obama, who hasn't announced a presidential bid and has endorsed Biden, on 13/1 or 7.1 percent.
Then came independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on 29/1, Vice President Kamala Harris on 37/1 and Republican candidate Nikki Haley on 41/1.
Like Michelle Obama, Harris hasn't launched her own bid for the 2024 presidential election and is currently Biden's running mate.
Donald Trump speaks in Richmond, Virginia, on March 2, 2024. The odds on Trump winning for 2024 presidential election have risen to 50 percent, according to a leading bookmaker. Donald Trump speaks in Richmond, Virginia, on March 2, 2024. The odds on Trump winning for 2024 presidential election have risen to 50 percent, according to a leading bookmaker. SAUL LOEB/AFP/GETTY
"Following yesterday's Supreme Court decision, punters have backed Donald Trump into one of his shortest positions on the Betfair Exchange market to win the 2024 US Election," Rosbottom told Newsweek via email. "He's the even money favourite, which gives him a 50% chance. He's only ever been shorter to win on one previous occasion, back in September. He clearly leads the way, with Joe Biden's chance of a second term drifting to 11/4."
Betfair odds gave Trump a 37 percent chance of securing reelection on the morning of Election Day in 2020. Trump would go on to lose the 2020 election to Biden.
Newsweek reached out to representatives of Donald Trump's presidential campaign by email outside of regular office hours on Tuesday. This article will be updated if they decide to comment.
On Sunday, Trump suffered his first Republican primary defeat when Haley won the party's Washington D.C. primary.
Primaries and caucuses are taking place in 15 states and one territory, though the latter only concerns the Democratic Party, in what is known as Super Tuesday. A convincing victory would move Trump within touching distance of the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
The states being contested are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, along with the American Samoa territory.
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Oh boy.....................this is going to leave a mark [deleted]
Time for Plan B for democrats. Do anything to win!
A ttorney General Merrick Garland appeared alongside Vice President Kamala Harris in Selma, Alabama on Sunday where he pledged to fight voter ID laws and other election integrity measures that he deemed "discriminatory, burdensome, and unnecessary."
AG Garland pledges to fight voter ID laws, election integrity measures (msn.com)
You mean like:
Oh ya, they didn't read all of the Court's ruling. There is a warning in there about trying anything sneaky after the election. Speaker Johnson will take care of any shit in the House.
An example of the stupidity that emerges when hurt feelings overwhelm them.
Plan B is already happening.
It’s been happening since November 2016 and accelerated the last year or two.
That's what happens when Democrat election interference fails.
Wait. So the Democrats are actually dumb enough to run the same failure for a SECOND TERM? And expect success?
Curious, can you even see the absolute absurdity in your sentence???
Curious, you can't see the absolutely absurdity of Democrats allowing Brandon to run unopposed?
You find it curious that the democrats would run the same candidate that got more votes last time than any other Presidential candidate in history? No wonder you are attempting to justify another absurd statement with an equally absurd statement of your own.
Not really news... It's what the aggregate polling was suggesting before the ruling.
let's face it, they grasp on to anything they can
Partisans tend to do this, but this isn't particularly good news for Biden and Dems.
This country is drowning in misinformation
Of course you've got the scoop on the real deal... /s
You mean like Russian collusion? or 17 intelligence agencies said trump colluded, or 50 former intelligence officers say Hunters laptop is Russian disinformation? Or Border agents whipping illegals?
Hands up don't shoot!
Indubitably. Maybe they should shut down NEWSMAX and MSNBC or at least make them stop pretending they are news.