Kamala Harris' Chances vs. Donald Trump, According to Polls - Newsweek
By: James Bickerton (Newsweek)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By James Bickerton US News Reporter
After Joe Biden announced he won't run in the 2024 presidential election—following weeks of growing pressure from within his own party—attention has turned to his vice president, Kamala Harris, who he has endorsed to be the Democratic Party nominee, and how she would fare in a November matchup against Donald Trump.
Over recent weeks, as speculation mounted over Biden's future, a number of pollsters have examined how Harris would perform in a straight matchup against Trump—some of which showed her slightly behind and some a little ahead of the Republican nominee.
Concern over the age and mental agility of 81-year-old Biden erupted in the aftermath of the first presidential debate on June 27, during which the president appeared at several points to lose his train of thought mid-sentence. In the weeks that followed a growing number of prominent Democrats, including lawmakers and actor George Clooney, urged Biden to step aside from the race so his party can select another nominee.
A YouGov poll of 1,582 U.S. adult citizens conducted between July 13 and 16 found 39 percent of respondents would vote for Harris if she was the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, against 44 percent for Trump. This put Harris slightly behind Biden, who the survey found would lose to Trump by 41 percent of the vote against 43 percent.
Vice President Kamala Harris on July 17, 2024, in Kalamazoo, Michigan (left), and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 18, 2024 (right). Polling conducted before Joe Biden dropped...Vice President Kamala Harris on July 17, 2024, in Kalamazoo, Michigan (left), and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 18, 2024 (right). Polling conducted before Joe Biden dropped out of the race showed Harris either slightly ahead or slightly behind Trump in a straight contest. More Chris duMond/Brendan Smialowski/AFP/GETTY
When asked if Harris would be more or less likely to win against Trump than Biden, 15 percent answered more likely, 26 percent about as likely, 39 percent less likely and 20 percent were unsure.
Ipsos polled 992 registered voters across the U.S. on July 16 for Reuters. The survey placed Trump ahead of Biden in a presidential matchup by 43 percent of the vote against 41 percent. However, once Harris was subbed in as the candidate she tied with Trump on 44 percent.
Between July 2 and 4, 1,000 registered voters were polled for Politico by Bendixen & Amandi International. The survey found Harris one point ahead of Trump in a presidential matchup with 42 percent of the vote against 41 percent, while Biden was one point behind on 42 percent against 43 percent.
A CNN poll of 1,045 registered voters, conducted by SSRS between June 28 and 30, found Trump ahead of Biden nationwide with 49 percent of the vote against 43 percent. Trump also polled ahead of Harris but by a smaller margin, with the backing of 47 percent of registered voters against 45 percent.
Newsweek has contacted Harris' press secretary and the Trump campaign by email.
Update 7/21/2024 2:59 p.m. ET: Additional information added.
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That is a big 5 points.
I'm sure there will be a debate or two. World salad speeches and pronouncements by Kamala won't cut the mustard for the majority of the voters. Her overall dismal performance as VP doesn't bode well for most demanding job in the world. Would she go against the wishes of the radical progressives who controlled Biden and be an actual moderate? What is her grasp of the issues, both foreign and domestic, that are important to the people?
Will the convention be a love in for Harris, or will there be opposition to her nomination? It should prove to be an interesting event in any case....and then there is the sideshow that will be going on outdoors...
LOL. Comments like this are endlessly amusing when you consider who the Republican candidate is.
Amusing but they are the truth.
Trump has a successful track record as president.
W/O Covid he would be serving his second term right now.
Kamala is a large part of the failed Biden administration.
See if she can run on inflation; high gas prices; the money pit war in Ukraine; open borders; and endless illegal immigration.
They weren't winning issues for Biden; but I am sure Kamala can spin them./S
I don't think it's accurate to look at these older polls and really think they mean much as the polling was taken 'as if she were the candidate' when she wasn't the candidate. Give the pollsters a week to get some new polling done to see a better picture.
Pollsters will be out in force this week. We'll have a much better picture of where things stand next week. The idea I'm hearing about the DNC is to have things coalesced around Harris before the Conference (I don't doubt this) AND to make it transparent (I have some doubts about this) for Party members, so as not to have chaos during the Convention.
Such polls are almost meaningless, as Harris has not started campaigning as the presidential nominee yet.
Do you think people don't have a pretty good idea of who she is and what she stands for already??
Her premier accomplishment has been the job she has done as Bidens border czar,
That's nothing to boast about.
People have a pretty good idea of what they have been told to think about her.
Most have eyes and ears of their own and don't need anyone to tell them what to think. I think you have flipped the script where that is concerned.
I find that comment most ironic.
Of course you do. Truth hurts
And that one moreso
Thomas has considerable expertise in these areas-- we must show him the respect he deserves!
I did just that......................
Harris said she intends to earn and win the Democratic presidential nomination after President Biden stunningly dropped out of the race and endorsed her as his successor.
Is anyone running against her?
The Democrat bench doesn't want the job.
They know a career ending event when they see one.
Pelosi finally endorsed her.
They are now committed.
Creeping extinction ... time to toss Donnie into the same drumpfster.
The "Democratic 'bench'"?
Yeah. Donald the the old and Vance the Despicable. Vance get absolutely no points from the Minions, by the way
Ah-- but will he in the future?
(You know how persnickety those minions can be!)
Biden was heading to defeat and there was no way to avoid that. Harris has failed every test she’s ever had and shes off putting personally, but she’s at least a relatively new variable. I’d say she gives the democrats a better chance of winning than Biden, but also a better chance of losing big. High risk, high reward.
Prepare for a lot of teleprompters.
They even had to prep her for a dinner.
Biden's doubts about Harris' chances delayed his exit (axios.com)
She gives the Dems a better chance than Biden but she'd probably be the one Republicans would pick as a replacement. She's an extremist who was the most left wing member of the Senate when she was in it and has zero successes under her belt and even fewer political skills. Her Presidential campaign in 2020 was a legendary dumpster fire of discord as she demonstrated a complete lack of management skills or ability to grasp issues.
Maybe Shapiro would be better for Republican because he'd tear the party apart. He is probably the best candidate the Democrats have but a Jewish candidate who isn't extremely anti-Israel is a no-go per CNN. The anti-Semites call the shots in that party now.
That's the thing, she is a California progressive now running for President of the country and she got here via the back room.
They definitely need PA, but you called it. He is Jewish. He can vote for democrats, but she isn't going to put him on the ticket.
Did you know she is refusing to attend Netanyahu's congressional address this week?
Neither Biden nor Harris will be there. He arrived today and neither one was at the airport to greet him.
Is that a slight?
It isn't very democratic.
i wonder why?
A sign of respect?
Oh, that's right. They respect nobody.
lol
Chosen by donors.
You must do better, Kamala will be formidable.
Through the passage of time!
Avoid further alienating the antisemitic wing of the Dem base.
Why wasn’t she formidable 4 years ago when she couldn't” even poll one percent before the first primary.
Her only accomplishment as vp is her failed job as border Czar.
i wouldn’t really use that one in her resume to the people.
Or neither . . .
(Or both!!!)
Those old polls don't mean much since they were all hypothetical. Even now there is some uncertainty swirling around about Harris becoming the nominee. I don't think the polls are going to mean anything until after the DNC convention.
IMO the election won't change that much. Harris (or some other nominee) can't rock the boat at this late date. Harris still has to run on the Biden record (as a legacy) and promise more of the same. There will be expectations that Harris run on election access and abortion (it's a Black woman thing?) so Democrats won't be able to return to a referendum on Trump. No doubt we'll hear a lot about Harris being the immigration Czar but that's not going to gain much traction. So, by the beginning of October (when voting starts) the election will likely settle back to where it was before the Biden debate debacle. Of course, both Harris and Trump are quite capable of screwing the pooch and changing everything in a single news cycle.
One thing I think we can expect is everyone being happy that Biden is out of the race. Nobody wanted a rerun of 2020.
Where do you get this sort of bullshit?
Here are the facts:
Vice-President Kamala Harris has secured the support of a majority of Democratic delegates to become the party's nominee for president. A survey by the Associated Press on Monday evening said she had received the endorsement of more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the nomination in the first round of voting.
BTW that means the actual "true facts"-- not the possibly true possibly false "Facts"!
So, you are commenting on the situation two days ago as if it's current. That's exactly how crooked prosecutors do things.
At this point Harris has gotten promises. Kamala Harris hasn't received any votes from the electorate or from delegates. Yes, there is little doubt that Harris will be given the nomination during the back-room phone call. (BTW that crisis was created by Joe Biden. It really is Biden's fault that the DNC convention will be pointless).
We really won't know anything about where Harris stands in the race until after the glitz and glamor of a pointless DNC convention. The Trump assassination will be the excuse to clamp down on any possible protests and unrest (thank you, Donald). And there's still time for Joe Biden to create another crisis.
And if one of the overzealous prosecutors actually succeeds in throwing Trump in jail sometime in September then the election will be turned inside out again.
For 2024, counting unhatched and hatched chickens doesn't allow any sort of certainty. We may not actually know the outcome of this election before next January.
And NONE of them are from the people. So much for ensuring democracy.
“I’m the nominee of this party because 14 million Democrats like you voted for me in the primaries,” Biden earlier this month.
” You made me the nominee, no one else. Not the press, not the pundits, not the insiders, not donors, you the voters. You decided, no one else, and I’m not going anywhere.”
Who made Kamala the nominee, not the voters that Joe mentioned.
Well, it's not Kamala's fault, but it appears the coronation has been crowned. Donald's ear is dead meat.
Thank you, the only folks talking more about it that Trump, were NTs.
Trump is praying people forget about his ear, since he knows how stupid he looks wearing that ridiculous bandage but also knows he can’t take it off and risk exposing what is not beneath it.
Trump doesn't pray and your comment is a contradiction.
I’d bet money that the next time you see his ear it will look just like the one on the other side. That is who he is. Not that you care, since you’ve stated repeatedly that we all should just accept him the revolting way that he is.
I've never said anything about accepting him. I've never voted for him and I'll never invite him over for a barbeque.
Maybe...Trump???
When a candidate bows out of an election, it is somewhat traditional for the candidate to tell the people who voted for them where they should place their votes in the absence of them still being a candidate. To wit: Look at Niki Haley. She told her accumulated delegates to vote for Trump. So Biden did the same thing and told his delegates to vote for Harris. If the voters who voted for him don't like it, they can vote for someone else in the general election.
After 50 years you would think Joe would be tired of being the democrat party’s bitch.
Both Trump and Biden are too old-- both have had moments of...."mental confusion".
We name to stop electing such old people.
(And you can add Mitch McConnell and several others to that list)!
Morning...groan... dare I ask the question pardon my ignorance..
So is Kamala the new leader signed sealed and delivered?...or double groan others can challenge for the position? And the ongoing sagas continue..
Please let there be a god and she is it.. don't think I can hack much more of the US politics on our news..the stupid reporters here seem to get more excited about it than you mob...
I would rather watch paint dry..
The coronation ceremonies for Cornelia are being practiced, Lear still rules the precipice.
She has already secured the delegates needed to be the nominee. Thus far no delegate has committed to any other candidate. The Ds are in a very atypical solidarity behind Harris.
So it looks like she is indeed it and the D machine is aligned, focused, and enthused.
I agree, she is bland milk toast plain to me, but I believe Joes sacrifice and the we can't have another Trump presidency will allow many Dems to acquire a taste for anything other than Trump, and you know all those debates you've had with Ntalkers about how they couldn't voter for neither Biden or Trump, will somehow never vote for Harris as well, and stick their vote where they had always intended it to go. I believe many others look at this as do I, a safe and even better vote, as all were pretty much concerned what Biden might be like in 4 years, and as Trump, as Gettysburg rewind did definably display, Bidens is not the only mind fading away.
If you had your druthers, and could have any current politician as the next president-- who would you choose?
not really sure, but, it would be a mix between a cool no drama Obama and John Stewart, throw in some John McGain and a little slick Willy
No.
Technically speaking she has not officially become the official nominee of the Democratic party-- although enough party members have declared their support for her so that she most certainly will become the nominee at the Democratic party convention.
(Trump has already become the official nominee of the Republican Party).
Then there will be the actual election in November which will determine which one of those two will become president.
Biden was really old and had occasionally had lapses of mental clarity. Trump is also old and not in good health-- he too has had lapses of mental functioning but is still running.
So unless Trump's poor health causes him to step down before the election in November, the next president will be either Trump or Harris-- but we won't know until the big general election in November.
(The paint is drying slowly indeed...)