Post-election polling suggests a new reason behind Trump's victory
By: Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman (The Hill)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
by Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman, opinion contributors - 12/16/24 8:30 AM ET
by Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman, opinion contributors - 12/16/24 8:30 AM ET
In the wake of a 2024 election that saw Democrats lose the White House and both chambers of Congress, there have been multiple theories as to why voters were less receptive to Democrats' messaging.
Newpolling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, in partnership with George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, likely provides the clearest explanation.
Our poll, the first post-election poll specifically focused on trust in government, reveals that while voters are less trusting of the government as a result of the election, they believe the government will be more effective and can get things done.
Put another way, our poll suggests that Democrats ran the wrong campaign. Whereas they ran a "values campaign," focused on a government Americans could trust, what voters really wanted was an effective government, and on that, they preferred Donald Trump.
Indeed, we found that a plurality (39 percent) of Americans said the 2024 election results made them less trusting of the government. Similarly, a 41 percent plurality of Americans say the election makes them less confident that the government will share "fair and accurate information."
And yet, a plurality (40 percent) of Americans believe the government will be more effective at getting things done going forward, versus 36 percent of Americans saying the government will be less effective.
Among independents, the discrepancy is even more pronounced, underscoring this voting bloc's desire for an effective government over one that is trustworthy.
By a 13-point margin (39 percent to 26 percent), independents said they are less — rather than more — trusting of government following the election. And by a similar 11-point margin (39 percent to 28 percent), they feel less — rather than more — confident that the government will share fair and accurate information going forward.
However, at the same time, by a 10-point margin (39 percent to 29 percent), independents believe the Trump administration will be more effective at getting things done going forward.
The 23-point difference between Independents' net trust in a second Trump administration (minus-13) and their optimism that his administration will be more effective than Biden-Harris (plus-10) is significant.
In the context of the 2024 election, this gap reveals that while the electorate at large - and particularly independents — are distrusting of a Trump administration, a considerable percentage were able to overlook that in favor of a government that they felt would get things done.
What could be called "cautious optimism" for the Trump administration was also found in a recent public poll byCNN.
A majority (54 percent) of Americans "expect Trump to do a good job upon his return to the White House," and a similar 55 percent approve of how he is handling the transition thus far.
Further, more than two-thirds of Americans (68 percent) feel that Trump will be able to bring change to the country, something pre-election polls routinely showed voters wanted.
While voters prioritized the effectiveness of government, our survey points to one very likely cause for the lack of trust in government and its communications: Americans recognize an increase in misinformation and disinformation.
Nearly 7 in 10 (69 percent) Americans felt that an increase in online misinformation and disinformation made it harder to access "fair and truthful news during the 2024 election campaign" according to our poll.
In that same vein, a similar 71 percent were concerned over the role that "deepfakes" played in spreading disinformation during the election.
As a response to these concerns, nearly one-half (45 percent) of Americans say they do not trust either the government or news organizations to provide fair and truthful news.
To that end, trying to address the declining lack of trust in either the government or the media is made more difficult by our extremely fragmented media environment, and therefore the need to communicate through an ever-increasing number of outlets.
Whereas three-quarters (76 percent) of Americans under 30 years old get their news from social media, seniors overwhelmingly (84 percent) prefer television, with just over one-quarter (27 percent) of seniors getting information from social media.
Moreover, even within social media platforms, we find that where Americans turn to for information differs significantly across age groups. While roughly 6 in 10 (61 percent) Americans under 30 years old get their news from TikTok and 55 percent from Instagram, this drops to just 8 percent and 10 percent, respectively for those over 65 years old.
Taken together, these findings suggest that it will be challenging to fix what appears to be an endemic problem, and it will be critical for the media and for the government to respond to the fragmented way in which people consume news and information.
For complete copywrited article contents, see link
Trolling, taunting, spamming, and off-topic comments may be removed at the discretion of group mods. NT members that vote up their own comments, repeat comments, respond to themselves, or continue to disrupt the conversation risk having all their comments deleted. Please remember to quote the person(s) you are replying to preserve the continuity of this seed. Posting debunked lies will be subject to deletion
No Fascism References, Source Dissing.
Tags
Who is online
149 visitors
Well played US citizenry...........
Makes sense. Competency matters and no one paying attention to the news can walk away believing democrats have provided competent government in blue areas.
This is a frightening statistic, and an indictment of the current mainstream media, when you are no longer trustworthy, people will seek their news elsewhere, (clue mindless Fox comment now.)
Interesting... I'm going to bookmark this article and revisit it in 2 years and see how this plays out.
any "poll" that features "winning " numbers like 39 or 40 isnt worth the digital print it is seen on.
these numbers are meaningless. If a football team wins 40-36 it is considered a very close game. But more than that neither of these numbers are high enough to represent anything like a consensus.
By the way Schoen is a hack conservative who masquerades, for decades now, as a Democrat.