"I haven't seen anything like this": GOP pollster says Harris took massive "advantage" from Trump | Salon.com
By: Nicholas Liu
the next 30 days of this political cycle should be hilarious...
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Veteran GOP pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris, riding a surge of enthusiasm surrounding her candidacy and bringing in people uninterested in supporting either former president Donald Trump or President Joe Biden, has changed the pool of voters who will decide the November election. If trends continue in this direction, Luntz suggested, Democrats may not only win the presidency and retake the House, but also cling on to the Senate despite a lopsided map that favors Republicans.
"The people who were undecided have all collapsed towards Harris. The people who were weak Trump have all collapsed towards undecided. It's a broad shift," Luntz explained. The previously disenchanted voters Harris is adding to her coalition might not amount to more than a one- or two-percent change in the electoral pool. But that's enough to tip the election for Harris, he said.
Recent polls show Harris now tied or leading Trump in most battleground states, a swift and dramatic reversal in fortune from the closing weeks of Biden's struggling campaign. Luntz, wary of potential inaccuracies and undercounting of Trump supporters, has also relied on voter focus groups to understand the thoughts and feelings behind shifts in polling. Now, they're being "broken up by young women saying 'I'm not voting for [Trump] anymore.'"
"I'm trying to do a focus group tonight with undecided voters under the age of 27 for a major news outlet, and I can't recruit young women to this because they don't exist as undecided voters," Luntz said.
The increasingly dismal situation for Trump was no given; according to Luntz, Harris is surging against electoral headwinds, not with them.
"The issues and conditions favor Donald Trump. He should be winning this election. But the attributes are so much in Harris' favor that he's not," he said, pointing to Trump publicly backing Elon Musk's decision to fire striking workers as an example of the former president needlessly alienating the same voters he's been trying to poach from the Democratic coalition. "It's as though he's lost control. And I know there are billionaires who watch this show who are spending a lot of money on Donald Trump, and they don't understand why he's committing political suicide."
Meanwhile, Harris is still enjoying the momentum that has been building since she entered the race in late July. "She's got an intensity advantage. She's got a demographic advantage," Luntz said. "And I haven't seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime."
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it's no longer if, but when, the stable genius self detonates his campaign...
Stable genius...LMAO Trump is as stable as a bowl of jello.
Please don't insult bowls of Jello!
... yeah, but he's a genius to all of his cult members. let that sink in ...
In fact, he's a very stable genius!
/sarc
I don't want to piss in your cheerios here, but David Axelrod said this morning he thinks the swing vote polling still heavily favors Trump. It's just too damned close to tell right now.
I get that. it's going to be gradual attrition across quite a few... er, psychological profiles.
I've started watching the polls now. What we see now is positive, but not not conclusive. We'll have a much better picture of where this is going by Sep 9th thu Sep 16th, I think. I don't think we'll get much of an October surprise this year, but who knows?
There have been instances of an "October Surprise".
But doesn't mean it has to happen every time. (There have been numerous cases where there has been no "October Surprise").
I think a better picture will be seen much closer to the end of September. That polling will be after the debate and hopefully Harris will put out some details on her policy so that people can be informed. As far as an October surprise, we'll have to wait and see. But I have little doubt that should there not be one, our "friends" in main-stream media will be sure to find something to use.
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Yes, the picture sharpens the further out things go...
I'm hoping both sides add some details to their policies so people can weigh them side by side.
I'm in complete agreement that Harris should spell out her policies and give interviews.
But even if I disliked all of her policies and she fumbled a little in interviews I would still vote for her a thousand out of a thousand times over trump.
This election is not about Kamala Harris policies, which undoubtedly fall within our political norms, it is about Donald Trump. We cannot let a traitor, a known traitor, back into power. Its that simple.
She has already begun appropriating Trump positions.
But even if I disliked all of her policies and she fumbled a little in interviews I would still vote for her a thousand out of a thousand times over trump.
I have no doubt about that.
This election is not about Kamala Harris policies,
Actually it is.
But even if I disliked all of her policies and she fumbled a little in interviews...
What little we've heard from Harris is left wing populism - fixes for price gouging and not taxing tips... There is little substance to go on, but the more I hear the harder I roll my eyes.
This is what most partisans don't understand. The system makes Admins mostly conform to political norms. It's what Hillary tried to tell Progressives - you can't turn a boat the size of the US around in a single term. It's also why alt+right populists want to break the system starting with Project 2025.
I oppose populism whether it comes from the right, or the left. Populism is only popular to a small minority of people. The country needs to return to Moderation. It is only through moderation can the country heal and work to resolve long term issues. I don't see that happening any time soon.
I've only heard something near to that message coming from 1 candidate so far...
I totally agree-- its really too close to call right now.
I think it is David's job to keep his foot on the accelerator and not let this surge slow down.
I think the margin of victory could very well exceed the last election.
All Harris has to do is let Trump keep talking
we used to call that "watching the rep talk the customer out of the sale" back in the day...
Independents and moderates were waiting for "permission" to vote against trump. Although I disagree with the reasoning, many of them thought there was no such permission structure with Biden as the candidate. But there is with Harris/Walz.
The polling has not yet caught up with this development, and if and when it does how will Trump get these people back? By whining and acting out every day between now and Nov. ? I dont think so.
Where do you come up with this idea?
Observations. What is wrong with my idea?
Either the Democrat or republican is going to win. Independents and moderates, not all of them, but enough for Harris to win, will go from "I dont want to do this" , choose, to "there is a way to do this now".
So, just your gut feeling? No polling or anything to point to?
Well there is but I'm not in the mood right now to go searching after it. maybe later.
for starters
Interesting, but I can't open the article to see the date. I'm just curious and haven't yet run across a lot of undecided or independent articles lately. I'm sure we'll be buried in with them after the convention and as we get nearer to October.
I think you're right.
In the words of a famous Yogi guru:
Prediction is difficult, especisally about the future.
-Yogi Berra
yea, but my past predictions', were difficult as well
We made it past old man curve, detoured round Olde MAGA Swamp to the blue skies and calm water of Freedom Cove America, at last...
It's all over cept the voting and the counting. It is Endtime for MAGA!
We Are Not Going Back! Notagonnadoit...
Given his tenuous grasp on reality and faced with the prospect of losing the election despite all attempts to seed doubts and actually take action to subvert the process, would not be surprised to see him quit before November. It would fit his narcissistic sociopathic disorder perfectly. If only…
he's already tried to get out of the debate...
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Hmmmm.... IMO, it is because he's an old toy and the kids don't want to play with him any more. He doesn't have much below the surface, so when that has rubbed off, what is left?
I am lost how the issues and conditions could be considered to favor Donald Trump. Yes, there’s some inflation, but Trump has given no credible solutions. Everything about Trump is unpopular and negative, and his lies have only gotten more obvious and voluminous. He is baked into Project 2025, there is plenty of evidence of this, and even he is admitting how bad some of its policies are while simultaneously feigning ignorance of the details. Who falls for this crap?
maga morons ...
The willingly Obtuse. He starts off by setting up his strawman that the country is in peril and will be obliterated from the face of the earth by Kalamitous-Kamala® and then posits that he is the only one to fix it by using several unconstitutional or illegal acts. The people who have been with him are so invested in his lies that they create their small world where Trump is Truth. Someday, hopefully, they will awaken.
People obsessed with "taking back" "their" country.
Trump actually tweeted last night that America would be destroyed by Kamala Harris because she's going to start WWIII and nuclear annihilation.
They are, though rather begrudgingly and at a pathetically particularly paltry pace that makes it appear they are really really slow, and that's how it goes, when they've wasted so much time effort and energy, all expended upon a normal person want to be, who never will, and as they lethargically lap around the dance, Truimp still has his hands down His pants, heavy pettin we be bettin, but lets not all be forgettin, the person Truimp iS and will ALWAYS BBB not a memeber of....