The Pandemic Baseball Season Was Hard. The Pandemic Offseason Will Be Harder.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T

It took less than 24 hours after the conclusion of the World Series for a top front-office executive to send a resounding message about what baseball players should expect this offseason.

"Revenues are going down," said John Mozeliak, the St. Louis Cardinals' president of baseball operations. "So it will be most likely [that] payroll will go down."

Mozeliak's comments last week were the clearest sign yet of what people across the industry have suspected ever since the coronavirus threw the league's financial landscape into a state of unprecedented turmoil. Owners are earning less money, and they will attempt to pass those losses onto their highest-paid employees—also known as the batters and pitchers on the field.

This anticipated period of widespread retrenchment comes at a critical moment for the sport's fragile labor relations, which have deteriorated in recent years to their lowest point since the strike of 1994. Ownership and the players' union need to figure out how to proceed with a second pandemic season in 2021, replaying a negotiation that sparked a bitter dispute this past summer. They must navigate what is shaping up to be a depressed employment market in light of massive economic uncertainty, which will further stoke the animosity and mistrust that exists between the two sides. And they have to do all this against the backdrop of a collective bargaining agreement that expires in 13 months, with the threat of a work stoppage looming.

"We still believe it's factually accurate to suggest that teams that are committed to winning have an interest in players that can help them do that," Tony Clark, the executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, said in a recent interview in Arlington, Texas, the site of the World Series. "While acknowledging that 2020 was a challenging year, commitments to players that can help you win games have less to do with this year and more to do with a healthy industry and how the interests of teams are positioned moving forward."

Baseball’s prognosis for the future still appears healthy, in spite of all the virus-induced upheaval. The Los Angeles Dodgers gave superstar outfielder Mookie Betts  a contract extension worth $365 million  in July, during the heart of the first wave of the pandemic. In September, MLB reached a new media rights deal with Turner Sports for $3.75 billion. Billionaire hedge-fund manager Steven A. Cohen just completed his purchase  of the New York Mets for around $2.4 billion. These are not moves that indicate the game is in any sort of long-term trouble.

But commissioner Rob Manfred has spent the past month trying to lay the groundwork for a winter of austerity. He  told The Wall Street Journal  in September that MLB sustained about $3 billion in operating losses while staging a shortened season in empty stadiums. In-person attendance, including ticket sales, parking fees and concessions, account for roughly 40% of the league’s revenues. (MLB did have a small number of fans in the ballpark for the final rounds of the postseason.)

Owners have laid off hundreds of employees throughout their business and baseball departments. Nobody knows how long it’ll be before state governments allow for packed stadiums again or when fans will feel comfortable buying tickets in droves. Given those unknowns, the union is readying for another fight about what next season might look like.

“There are going to be challenges against the backdrop of the unknown,” Clark said. “What I am 100% certain of is that fans have zero interest in hearing about those disagreements.”

Clark was alluding to the union’s fierce negotiation with the league over how to resume play earlier this year after spring training shut down in March. Those discussions spilled into public view, resulting in hostile rhetoric that seemed to intensify by the day. The sides never arrived at an agreement, with Manfred instead exercising his right to impose a 60-game schedule on the players. (The MLBPA is expected to file a grievance this winter alleging that MLB didn’t make a good-faith effort to play as many games as possible.)

Next year, Clark said, the players’ expectation is to have a full 162-game season, even if continued virus protocols are required. Owners might see things differently if restrictions on large gatherings are still in place. They could ask to play fewer games, potentially prompting another negotiation.

What the union won’t entertain is another discussion about pay cuts, something management initially sought this year before ultimately consenting to full prorated salaries after ferocious pushback from players.

“Amid a very difficult 2020 year for everyone, the best way to have the most efficient and effective conversation moving forward is going to be transparency across the board,” Clark said. 


Before the season starts again, there is the issue of free agency. Though last winter saw a spending bonanza—Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon signed contracts worth a combined $814 million—this year’s group lacks that sort of high-end talent.

Betts removed himself from the pool by committing to the Dodgers. The best players in the remaining class are all 30 or older, highlighted by J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, George Springer, Marcus Semien, Marcell Ozuna and D.J. LeMahieu.

More concerning is an avalanche of middle-tier free agents all becoming available at once as clubs slash costs, resulting in a lot of supply and a lot less demand. The purge has already begun, with teams declining the options of several quality players at rates that probably would have been picked up under normal circumstances. These include Charlie Morton, Adam Eaton and Kolten Wong, among others.

It has stoked fears of a limited market for veteran free agents, following what the union sees as a disturbing new reality.

“What we’ve seen the last five to six years is dramatically different than what we saw for 50 years before,” Clark said. “We have to assume that this is not a trend, but the norm.”

To change that in the next CBA, Clark is focused on several priorities. Chief among them is the issue of competitive integrity and devising ways to ensure that teams attempt to field a successful roster each year, rather than tank in a bid to rebuild. This could involve rewarding low-revenue franchises that win with better access to talent, either in the draft or with additional resources through revenue sharing.

Similarly important, the union hopes to ensure that younger players are compensated relative to their performance. Currently, players make close to the league minimum for the first three of years of their careers and don’t become free agents until after six. That’s how New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso was renewed for just over $650,000 this season despite hitting a rookie-record 53 home runs in 2019.

In light of the financial question marks created by the pandemic, MLB could look to delay CBA negotiations by proposing a short extension rather than engage in full-blown talks. At this point, there’s no indication that the players would be amenable to such an arrangement.

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“Nothing has fundamentally changed as to what our concerns are based on what we’re seeing happening in the industry,” Clark said. “That commitment to winning we believe is going to manifest itself in an industry that benefits teams, players and fans.”