Why neither Biden nor Trump will be the next president | The Hill
By: Sheldon H. Jacobson (The Hill)
Could it be true?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
by Sheldon H. Jacobson, opinion contributor - 11/17/23 12:30 PM ET
by Sheldon H. Jacobson, opinion contributor - 11/17/23 12:30 PM ET
We are now less than one year away from Election Day 2024.
On the Republican side, three debates have already been held featuring a diverse group of presidential hopefuls. The one person who has been absent has been the favorite in the polls, Donald Trump, declining to participate. Not surprisingly, the number of candidates has continued to dwindle, from eight in the first debate, to seven in the second debate, and to five in the third debate. The number set for the fourth debate on Dec. 6 currently stands at three, with Chris Christie's campaign on life support hoping to make the stage.
On the Democrat side, incumbent President Joe Biden is assumed to be running for a second term. Pollsters are focusing on a Biden-Trump rematch, with early polls giving Trump a slight edge in several key battleground states.
In spite of such political drama, the data suggests that neither Trump nor Biden will be elected president on Nov. 8, 2024. Here's why.
The Thirteen Keys to the White House have provided a reliable track record in forecasting who will win the presidential election. One of the keys (No.3) gives an edge to the incumbent president. This motivates the Democrats to keep Biden in the race as their candidate.
The problem is that Biden is nearing 81 years of age, putting his candidacy based on age in uncharted territory. All voters, including the majority of Democrats, are concerned with this situation. Biden's age prompted Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota to announce his own campaign for the nomination. Others are quietly waiting in the wings if Biden falters or steps aside, including Cory Booker of New Jersey and JB Pritzker of Illinois. If Phillips turns out to be viable, this will turn yet another key against Biden (No.2).
To further complicate the situation, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has launched his own independent campaign, as has Cornell West. This further muddies the waters for Biden, as he will need to stave off defections of voters to these two candidates, who will likely appeal to some Democratic voters.
Once again, the Thirteen Keys to the White House penalizes incumbents when a viable third-party candidate is in the race (No.4). Recent polls suggest that Kennedy will fuel additional headwinds to Biden gaining a second term, though some Republican voters may also be attracted by Kennedy's anti-vaccine position.
Of course, many Democrats are hoping that Biden can make it to the finish line and get reelected. Once in office, any health issues can be managed with the vice president sitting in for him. Clearly, their objective is winning the election, not Biden serving out a full four-year term.
The biggest problem faced by Biden and the Democrats is that nature is unpredictable, as health issues emerge with each passing month once one reaches a certain age.
Whether Biden can sustain his viability and make it to Election Day is anyone's guess. And even if he does, many voters will view a vote for him as a vote for Kamala Harris, Biden's presumed running mate. Voters understand this, which some independent voters and those on the fence may find less than ideal. How this will play out remains unclear.
All these factors increase the likelihood that Biden will not be inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025.
If Democrats weigh the risks and benefits of Biden running for a second term, they will realize that the sooner they pull the plug on his candidacy, the more time they will have to prepare the campaign for his replacement and the better the chance they have of retaining the White House.
Every option carries with it some risks that cannot be completely mitigated. However, risks can be managed, and putting forward a viable option appears to be the most plausible pathway forward for success.
The situation on the Republican side for Trump is not much better.
The field of Republican hopefuls continues to shrink, as Tim Scott recently ended his campaign bid. This leaves Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy among those who participated in the third Republican debate.
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Do I see several sets of crossed fingers?...............
And trips to church
YEP
Some with the danger of a lightning strike on the church or the roof caving in...
Omg, if the two of them could just…. Not be around anymore that would be amazing.
Get rid of the biggest threat to our system of governance the country has ever seen, because he is an out and out fascist, and get rid of a guy who has t been terrible but has waaaaaaay overstayed his welcome.
Honestly though our government is dominated by those people who, even though the party has been over for like 2 hours, just won’t fucking leave.
The data suggests that the likelihood of a Biden-Trump rematch is highly unlikely, and that either of them winning the White House is small.
I really hope that is true, I am pessimistic though.
If its a Biden-Trump matchup, this may be one of those elections that may be decided not so much by who people vote for-- but rather which candidate that most people vote against!
The lesser of two evils...round 3.
Good seed.
It will be interesting to see how the Kennedy campaign is treated by mainstream media.
I haven't followed this too closely, but originally it seemed a lot of Democrats felt he would take away from the eventual Democratic candidate-- mainly based on name recognition.
Later on the seemed to be an increasing number of Republicans were starting to think he might take more votes away from the Republican candidate because of some of his views.
Hard to tell now what will happen (and to further complicate things, as this seed suggests, its possible that one or both of the frontrunners in both parties may or may not be the eventual nominee.
Could it be true?
Yes, it could be true.
But yes-- it could also be untrue!
I'll avoid the common cliches re; the situation (""the election is a long way off", "its too early to tell", "A lot could happen between now and Election Day", etc. etc) and rather post a quote from a wise man, a highly revered guru & yogi master":
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
-Yogi Berra
I see no argument for why Trump is not likely to win the presidency. The argument is why Biden is a weak candidate.
Do you really need to ask that? ( Before get into that I know you didn't actually write it as a question but it is implied ). Where have you been for the past three years give or take a few months?
I did not ask any question nor did I imply the question you posed. You imply a stupid question and then criticize me for it. A very slimy tactic.
The implied question was why Trump is not likely to win the presidency.
If you have an answer then opine away.
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In my opinion Trump has burned too many bridges behind himself that cost him too much credibility. Biden's age, frailty, and continuing questionable mental activity are his biggest hurdles which I doubt be can overcome. Same for Trump.
Thanks for your thoughtful, direct response, Ed. Seems to be a rarity these days.
Assuming the polls are correct (likely not) Biden appears to be so weak as a candidate that even someone like Trump could beat him. But that reasoning does not explain how anyone could vote for Trump to be PotUS given he has shown that he will throw the CotUS and the nation under the bus if it suits him personally.
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