Poll: Trump's ratings on immigration tumble as Americans lose confidence in his top issue
By: Natasha Korecki (NBC News)
Trump has a golden touch.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Support for President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda is in free fall in early 2026 after federal immigration agents shot and killed two Americans last month, according to the new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey.
The administration’s aggressive tactics and deportation goals have dragged down Americans’ views of Trump on the very issue that helped sweep him into office, the survey shows.
Immigration and border security had long stood out as a strength for Trump in polls, both as he ran for a second term in 2024 and in the first year of his new administration. Now, Trump’s ratings on the issue have sunk to the same level as his overall job approval rating.
In a double-digit shift, 49% of adults strongly disapprove of how Trump has handled border security and immigration, up from 38% strong disapproval last summer and 34% in April. Self-identified independents drove the erosion, with the share of strong disapprovers in that group having risen 11 points since August.
Fully 60% of those surveyed in the week after the death of Alex Pretti in Minnesota somewhat or strongly disapproved of Trump’s actions on border security and immigration. Another 40% approved of Trump on the issue, including 27% who strongly approved and 13% who somewhat approved.
Meanwhile, his overall approval rating declined slightly to 39%, about even with his rating on immigration and border security.
“In these elections that are won on the margins, particularly in the swing states, independents are a really critical group,” said Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst for NBC News’ Decision Desk and part of the team that conducted the poll. “To see them shift so heavily on one of the president’s key priorities is really telling.”
The findings expose the limitations of the Trump messaging machine in the wake of the fatal shootings of Pretti and Renee Good by immigration agents in Minnesota. The administration has tried to turn the conversation away from acts of aggression against immigrants, protesters and residents, instead focusing on the dangers of “sanctuary” policies and asserting that a silent majority of Americans welcome immigration agents’ stepped-up presence in their cities.
Instead, nearly three-quarters of the poll respondents say they want the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency to be reformed or abolished. They overwhelmingly say immigration officers have gone too far. Well over half, 63%, say the federal government has gone too far in disregarding local and state governments, compared with 37% who said state and local governments have gone too far in disregarding federal authority.
A strong majority, 63%, disapprove of immigration agents’ wearing masks. More blame street clashes on the administration, not protesters. And 58% disagreed when they were asked whether regular, law-abiding citizens had “nothing to fear” from immigration agents.
Americans do want to see local cooperation with federal authorities to deport people in the U.S. illegally. The largest segment of respondents, 46%, said local governments should cooperate in some cases. Thirty-four percent said they should cooperate in all cases, and 20% said they never should cooperate.
The poll was conducted online from Jan. 27 through Friday — after Good’s and Pretti’s deaths — with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. It is clear from the data that the incidents catalyzed disapproval of both ICE itself and Trump’s overall handling of immigration, as have a flood of social media videos showing violent confrontations on the streets.
While major immigration operations have been underway in cities across the country for months, the events in Minnesota had the biggest impact on the public. In the wake of the killing of Pretti, Trump changed the leadership of the administration’s immigration operations in Minneapolis. While the poll was in the field, White House border czar Tom Homan announced that hundreds of immigration agents would be pulling out of the city. And Trump told NBC News since then that he thinks he needs to take a “softer touch” on immigration.
“Those things hadn’t moved the needle that much,” Trussler said of earlier incidents involving ICE and Border Patrol personnel. “It is really the chaos of Minnesota that has done it.”
In making judgments around immigration arrests and clashes with protesters, the public has heavily leaned on videos posted on social media, with the largest segment, 34%, saying that is the most accurate source of information. The next largest segment, 24%, said they turned to national news accounts.
Nationally, a majority of respondents, 62%, say they don’t trust that federal investigations into the shooting deaths of Good and Pretti will be fair and transparent. That follows extensive media reporting about how local authorities were cut out of probing the shootings and the resignations of at least six federal prosecutors, who, according to previous NBC News reporting, felt pressured by the Trump administration during their probes.
It has all put Trump in a perilous spot politically as midterm elections approach during his second year in office. Trump’s overall job approval slid to the lowest mark in NBC News Decision Desk polling of his second term, slightly down from 42% in December’s survey to 39% now.
Approval of ICE is even lower, at 34%. Meanwhile, 65% said the country is on the wrong track.
In addition to causing trouble with independents, Trump and his immigration policies are also fracturing the Republican base, especially the approximately half of Republicans who identified themselves as “more a supporter of the Republican Party” than “more a supporter of the Make America Great Again” movement.
For instance, 74% of MAGA Republicans strongly approved of federal immigration officers’ wearing masks, compared with only 46% of traditional Republicans. (Another 17% of MAGA Republicans and 27% of traditional Republicans said they somewhat approved of officers’ wearing masks.)
While 59% of traditional Republicans supported an investigation of the agent who shot Pretti, 38% of MAGA Republicans shared that opinion.
And while 91% of MAGA Republicans were very or somewhat confident that a probe of Good’s and Pretti’s deaths would be transparent, 73% of traditional Republicans felt that way.
Alongside the national poll, NBC News Decision Desk, NBC affiliate KARE of Minneapolis and the Minneapolis Star Tribune simultaneously conducted a Minnesota-specific survey. The results broadly reflected the findings in the national poll, though a higher share of Minnesotans said they viewed local news as their most accurate source of information. A similar share of state residents also said they support some level of local cooperation with deporting undocumented immigrants.
The NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey surveyed 21,995 adults online from Jan. 27 to Feb. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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Smart money says the midterms are going to focus on local issues rather than national issues. And ICE terrorizing cities is a local issue.
Should we start a pool on whether or not Trump quits after the midterms?
Issues, other than "rage" have nothing to do with midterms. No matter what Trump does, Democrats will pick up house seats because they will show up and republicans aren't as motivated to vote. That's all it is. It's all it's been this century. Out of power party voters are more motivated to vote in midterms and they show up at greater rates than people who aren't mad.
rt a pool on whether or not Trump quits after the midterms?
Why would losing congress force him to quit? Did Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, or Biden quit after losing midterms?
States rights. Local elections. It's not only about the Federal government any longer. Federal Congressional seats ain't the only elections during the midterms. Smart money says the down ballot elections are going to be more important this time.
Only Trump can force Trump to quit. (Unless one of the string of upcoming impeachments succeeds.) Trump hasn't displayed any behavior that suggests he would accept losing. Trump's typical response to losing is to take his toys and go home. There's nothing about Trump's character that rules out him quitting if he loses both the Senate and House.
No, they won't and you have no basis for thinking so. If anything, elections continue to be more nationalized over time and have less to with local "issues". Commercials for state offices from Democrats are all about "stopping Trump" and national issues.
Trump hasn't displayed any behavior that suggests he would accept losing. Trump's typical response to losing is to take his toys and go home.
Right. Because he quit after losing seats in 2018 (and putting Pelosi in charge of the House) and left politics after losing the 2020 election getting indicted etc...
Do Bears shit in the woods?
(Remember: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future outcomes!)
That depends on your perspective. ICE has been operating here in NC for quite a while and the only people who seem to be "terrorized" are the left. And that's a very small number.
Same here in Florida.
Every now and again we hear of small groups (usually identified as "dozens") protesting. As long as they stay on the sidewalk and not go in the road to impede traffic, they are safe from legally getting run over. Funny how we have not seen any instances of protestors getting run over.....
Right. If you're a rightwing Christo-fascist these actions by ICE are necessary to clean out all the undesirables. If you're a patriotic American citizen, you recognize these Gestapo tactics for what they are and you get out and protest these immoral and very likely illegal acts taken by this criminal administration.
When you take an honest look around the ONLY thing that changed in the immigration process is who is in charge. The same tactics used by Obama are used today. The laws established by Clinton are still used today. An honest look around will also allow you to see that the majority of these anti-ICE idiots are in Democrat run Sanctuary Shitholes. The very shitholes we have seen issues in for years.
By your ridiculous statement, EVERY administration has been a "criminal administration" operating with "Gestapo tactics".
How many thousands of ICE agents have been deployed to NC? The reported numbers suggest about 200 but it's difficult to pry numbers out of DHS. Would Charlotte agree with your assessment?
The negative influence of Operation Charlotte's Web seems to be growing. Hasn't recent polling in NC shown that a majority disapprove of the aggressive tactics employed by ICE? Hasn't there been increasing gripes about labor shortages and disruption of construction projects?
Trump's 'balls to the wall' approach to enforcement really is shifting the focus away from immigration and toward how ICE operates. Even in NC. That is Trump's golden touch.
It is unlikely that North Carolina turns blue. But it is beginning to look like Trump Republicans are going to have a hard row to hoe.
Do you find murderers, rapists, drug runners, child molesters, assaulters, etc, whether in this country or in the country they came from, as desirable?
I ask this because I have never heard anyone on the right say they would like to get rid of any other "desirable" than those I listed.
I have heard many on the left insinuate that these same type of people are the desirable ones by the way they defend them at every turn.
Early signs are that Florida races will be dominated by affordability issues which favors local politics over national politics. Immigration was a peripheral issue but it's influence is growing due to how ICE is conducting itself. ICE conduct is displacing the issue of immigration, even in Florida.
Do you hear about the anti-ICE dimwits getting involved? I don't, even for as shitty of a city as Charlotte is, it's been pretty quiet.
Where has the polling been taking place? Wake County? Mecklenburg County? I know it hasn't been in Cumberland County.
It's really no different than what we saw under previous administrations. The biggest thing that changed are the anti-ICE dimwits getting involved.
With the large military presence here that votes, that would be a hard press. Typically the military gets screwed over under Democrats at both the state and federal levels.
Total bullshit. We did not have ICE in the streets stopping cars and pedestrians demanding papers under Obama. We did not have ICE agents shooting Americans in the face or back.
And at the moment they are not being followed by ICE. The "Kavanaugh stops" were not laws established under Clinton. Your claims are nothing but fantasy. Either that or you're being intentionally dishonest.
An honest look around proves who the Un-American pieces of shit are and they aren't Democrats. Democrats are protecting the constitution and citizens rights while the rightwing bigoted conservatives are trying to lock down our nation under their fucking Christo-fascist Gestapo rule. I'd much rather live in any sanctuary city than any fucking place run by worthless religious bigots.
The fact that you can't see a difference between the Trump administration and every other administration speaks volumes and I can only feel sorry for you. It must be horrible to live while being so obviously blind to reality.
Actually we did.
We also didn't have twatwaffles interfering with ICE operations either. That would also explain why ICE operations weren't publicized as much as they are today. Well, that and the fact that the left has been crying about the person in the WH.
I made no mention of those. I am referring to The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996. Keep up.
Then why are Democrats trying to keep illegals in the country? Why did they ALLOW illegals to enter the country?
Which kinda demonstrates the interference is not about immigrants. It's about ICE.
Now that the Constitution has been set aside, what are you going to do when President Twatwaffles enters office? The fuckers don't have to win Congress any longer. They only need to win one election, put President Twatwaffles in charge, and do whatever they want.
President Twatwaffles can send goons into any city, shoot armed protesters without accountability, snatch people off the street without warrant or arrest, send in the National Guard to quell insurrection, declare martial law to expedite a political agenda. President Twatwaffles could lock out Republicans on the flimsiest of flimsy excuses.
What goes around, comes around. And what Trump has started is going to come around, too. What are you going to do about it when it reaches you?
Then why do we not see it across the country?
That's one opinion.
When Obama was President, ICE operated directly in Hennepin County jails to take illegals and deport. Now, when ICE has to find them because Hennepin County wants to keep child molesters in Minnesota, It's suddenly 1930's Germany.
The underlying stupidity behind "Stop ICE" moral panic can't be emphasized enough
Because they need the voters
Maybe because ICE wasn't patrolling streets like paramilitary mercenaries.
Are you unaware that ICE has been detaining citizens?
They never were.
Are you unaware that they've been released upon verification? Or does the narrative not allow you to know that?
Yes....they are called instigators and are members of "ICE watch" that pretty much does nothing but impede and obstruct ICE doing their jobs. The obstruction is a felony. Most probably have been cited and released, but some may still be held for more egregious felonies.
The only thing you are pointing out is that Trump has totally botched the issue. You have specifically proven the problem is not enforcement of immigration laws since there was cooperation during Obama's Presidency.
Trump caused the problem during his 1st term. Trump screwed the pooch. And now Trump is trying to unscrew the pooch by using violaence.
Yes, and then Democrats went batshit crazy and decided they wanted illegal aliens who've committed crimes to be immune from deportation.
How you think that's Trumps fault is baffling.
rump caused the problem during his 1st term
If you want to make things up, that's cool. But your claims have nothing to do with reality.
What were they instigating? A protest against Big Government? Trump wanted chaos so what's the gripe?
The 4,000 immigration arrests in Minnesota cost an average of $1.5 million apiece. About of third of those arrested by ICE and CBP have no criminal record in the US and many won't be deported. On top of the cost and inefficiency, Trump has damaged the political value of the immigration issue by resorting to violence. Operation Metro Surge was just another Big Government boondoggle that cost a lot and accomplished little.
The only thing Trump accomplished was turning the clock back to 2019 before a few counties in Minnesota stopped cooperating with ICE because of Trump's overreach in 2017-2018.
Trump has ordered the DOJ to deliberately protect pedophiles. So, don't try to ride that 'law & order' high horse.
In Minnesota illegal aliens who commit crimes are prosecuted and sentenced to state prisons. ICE is notified of their pending release and the release is coordinated to facilitate an arrest by ICE. Most of the list of 'worst' criminals Kristi Noem highlighted were released to ICE arrest before the Operation Metro Surge. Noem's list illustrated the coordination and cooperation between MN Dept. of Corrections and ICE.
Hennepin County stopped coordinating with ICE and forced closure of the ICE office in the Hennepin County jail in 2019. That was a response to Trump's aggressive, violent border actions in 2017-2018.
When did that happen?
Lol.. If it that were remotely true, they would have reopened it under Biden...
Then why the gripes about Biden opening the border? Why the moaning over Biden's 'catch & release' to avoid overcrowding in border detention centers that was a problem under Trump?
You cite Obama as running a smooth deportation operation. And now you cite lack of cooperation during the Biden administration as proof Trump wasn't the original cause. So, who was President between Obama and Biden?
The only point you are making is that Democrats were better at enforcing immigration law than Trump. That's okay, Trump doesn't know when to quit either.
By all means, explain why Biden opening the border required Hennepin county to stop assisting in the deportation of child molesters and other criminals.
.
Hennepin County never assisted in deportations. Hennepin County coordinated with ICE until Trump screwed the pooch. ICE is responsible for enforcing immigration law and deportations. Hennepin County and the state of Minnesota doesn't have the authority or responsibility to enforce immigration law and engage in deportations. The only way that would be possible is to take that authority away from the Federal government and give it to the states. But that would be a small government solution and Trump prefers a BIGGER Big Government.
It's true that the so-called 'sanctuary' policies adopted during Trump's first term were not rescinded when Biden took office. In fact, some states, like Illinois and Oregon, expanded 'sanctuary' policies. In states, like Minnesota, there was resistance to expanding local 'sanctuary' policies statewide. The larger cities are the economic powerhouses for most states so state legislatures imposing punitive measures against 'sanctuary' policies were not very popular. 'Sanctuary' policies became power struggles within states as the importance as a Federal issue diminished under Biden. Since the 'sanctuary' policies pitted urban Democratic areas against suburban and rural Republican areas, the idea of 'sanctuary' naturally became a partisan issue at the national level. Trump screwed it up while he was in office and Republicans screwed it up even more because Trump was not reelected.
I'm surprised Trump isn't redacting and pardoning those child molesters. Maybe they're just not elite enough for Trump's questionable tastes.
‘What were they instigating’
Have you not seen the hundreds of videos of leftists obstructing LE from doing their hobs? What they are doing endangers their lives and are felonies.
’Trump wanted chaos so what's the gripe?’
I never saw Trump on camera say that the people should resist ICE but sure did see quite a few democrats do that. They sure were hoping for chaos and they sure did get it. Blame those responsible for the chaos and it is not Trump.
’apiece. About of third of those arrested by ICE and CBP have no criminal record in the US’
How many of them have records in the country they came from? BTW entering this country outside of a designated entry is illegal.
’’Operation Metro Surge was just another Big Government boondoggle that cost a lot and accomplished little’
It cost a lot. Every government operation does. The good news is 4000 illegals areoff the streets and over 3000 children were found that came over unaccompanied. Something democrats did not care about. Why anyone complaining about this is beyond sanity
I haven't been complaining about the deportations. I've been complaining about the ICE randos roaming the streets.
Even Trump Republicans have started talking about protesters instead of immigrants. Trump Republicans have lost control of the narrative because ICE is not perceived as the good guys doing good things in a professional manner.
The optics have gotten so bad that Trump had to 'rescind' climate regulations to change the subject and divert everyone's attention away from ICE. If the deployments have worked so well politically then why is Kristi Noem on the defensive and not the center of attention?
Doing the right thing in the worst way possible is not going to win praise. Trump screwed the pooch trying to play hardball.