Biden's poor polling may be as good as it gets for him

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T

Although it hardly looks like it, President Joe Biden may already be peaking in his race to keep the White House. His biggest internal threat remains: his inability to campaign effectively. And his biggest external threat looms: Though the country seems to expect a soft landing from inflation's heights, this week's economic data prove Biden's economy has nowhere to go but down.

When Biden survived his State of the Union speech, Democrats cheered their president reaching the starting line as though he had crossed the finish line. But his challenge over the next seven months will be far greater. The campaign trail will be demanding for Biden, with many speeches before real audiences, press conferences (if he agrees to them), and debates (if he accepts). Biden will have to do these and more — and do them over and over again. And at the first mistake, the questions that Democrats insist have been laid to rest will come flooding back.

All these questions will come in environments where Biden is weakest and has failed to perform throughout his career. That's why Biden's people have kept him out of sight as much as possible for nearly five years. Remember: as soon as Biden clinched the Democratic nomination in 2020, he retired to his basement. And throughout his first term, he has avoided the press except for all but the simplest, friendliest, and heavily controlled of settings — as his March 2021 ESPN interview was recently revealed to be.

Politically, though, Biden has no choice but to go out. Unlike in 2020, when Biden held sizable leads and events were largely playing his way and he could play it safe, now he must make up ground. As of April 11, he trails (by almost 3 percentage points overall and in every state but Pennsylvania) in the all-important battleground states that will decide the Electoral College vote; he trails by almost 2 percentage points in the five-way race that this election will likely be; and even in a head-to-head rematch with former President Donald Trump, he is slightly behind.

But even if he agrees to start campaigning, Biden's biggest liability will be one he can't control: the economic uncertainty that his own policies have created.

The economy is undoubtedly slowing. In the third quarter of 2023, real GDP grew 4.9%. In the fourth quarter, it was 3.4%. And according to the Congressional Budget Office's estimate, in 2024 it is expected to grow only 1.5%. This is the so-called soft landing from inflation's highs as the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate increases have their intended effect. The question now is whether the economy will do more than simply slow — something inflation has recently been refusing to do.

There are concerning signs that the stock market is "overvalued." In particular, there appears to be a tech bubble centered on the sprint into AI investment. While stock market drops are worrisome and have economic repercussions, aren't they primarily a problem for the segment of society that holds stocks? Remember that there has been a role reversal in American politics — this elite is now Biden's constituency.

Further, even the economy's slower growth is premised on Fed rate cuts. Presumably, there were to have been three this year. However, the execution of these rate cuts keeps getting pushed back. June was a toss-up before Wednesday's latest data showing inflation's resilience. And even if rates are cut in June, they would leave less than five months for either economic or political effects. If those cuts have to be pushed back even further, could the economy slow even more than expected?

Nor are the administration's concerns just at the macro level when it comes to the economy. The reason the Fed is not lowering interest rates is because inflation remains too high. People are paying those higher interest rates in the form of mortgages that are keeping many out of homes. They are also paying them on increasing credit card debt that has ballooned — along with a decrease in their savings — to offset inflation's effects.

Topping this, Biden's ratings on the economy are already poor — just 39.5%, according to RealClearPolitics. A soft landing is his best-case scenario.

It is hard to see what factors could give Biden a major boost over the next seven months, but it is very easy to spot two that could deliver major blows to his beleaguered chances.

The weakest part of the Biden campaign is Biden himself. And he is weakest when he is most visible — something he will have to increasingly be. His most volatile issue is the economy — it is hard to see issues such as immigration, foreign policy, and crime getting either appreciably better or worse for him. And the most realistic direction for the economy to go is down — the only question being, "How much?"

Implausible as it may seem in Biden's weakened condition, this may be as good as it's going to get for him.