America Not Ready to Handle China & Russia Threats
By: Michael Brendan Dougherty (National Review)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
In Washington, there is a habit of talking about "the liberal world order," as if this is something we protect. The liberal world order isn't NATO or the EU. It's not the WTO, or America's defense relationships with Japan and South Korea. Those are all real things, with relatively legible meanings. The "liberal world order" is said to include all those things but also much more. It apparently includes the integrity of Ukraine's national borders, as Comrade Stalin redrew them in 1954. It includes the relative independence of Taiwan. And occasionally, its defenders say it includes the Paris climate agreement too
Basically, the liberal world order is the geopolitical status quo as a transnational class of political elites would have it. It’s a world where Russia is supposed to stay behind the 700,000 square miles of territory it gave up peacefully after 1991, and it’s supposed to take whatever trading relationships the United States sees fit for it. It’s a world where China is making that international elite much richer than before. Consequently, conflicts with China are minimized by the liberal world order’s institutions, or blamed on foolish “America First” presidents.
The United States under president Joe Biden is expected to defend this liberal world order, to restore it , or even expand upon it somehow.
I wouldn’t count on it.
The vast Russian military buildup on the border of Ukraine and the provocative military exercises conducted by China near Taiwan show us powers that are at least thinking about testing the boundaries of this liberal world order, at least where the commitments of the United States are ambiguous.
China would prefer that Taiwan come under its control without a major military confrontation. It would prefer the fait accompli it executed on Hong Kong’s relative independence. A hot war over Taiwan would risk one of the island nation’s most important assets, the very reason anyone would want to capture Taiwan: its hammerlock on the semiconductor industry. But just as American policy-makers worry that a failure to stand up for Taiwan could lead to a dramatic domino effect, in which America’s friends in the region would become anxious, lose faith in American support, and as a result align with a Chinese-led Pacific order, so surely do Beijing’s hawks hope that China’s taking Taiwan could deliver them dramatic upsides. These fears and hopes may be illusions, but wars are often stumbled into over dreams and nightmares like these.
Russia’s situation is trickier. It clearly wants to gain greater control over Ukraine without resorting to a dramatic invasion of regular uniformed Russian forces. Military exercises like the ones Russia is now conducting are a long-term feature of Russia’s coercive diplomacy. Already the Ukrainian authorities are begging for more clarity about the commitments of NATO and the United States. They need the clarity if they are to weigh their options. But even if the U.S. commits to more military aid to Ukraine, if it stops short of Kyiv’s desire for American, British, and Canadian troops on the front lines , Russia may up the stakes by encouraging proxies in the Donbas region to raise some hell and force the issue. Nothing about this is surprising. Russia has always sought to have guaranteed access to the Black Sea, and it prefers some buffer between it and Europe. After decades of watching NATO expand to its borders, Russia could attempt to draw some lines for itself.
Let’s put aside where you ultimately fall on whether America should commit more to Ukraine or to Taiwan’s defense. I tend to view both as ultimately peripheral to our core interests, but dear to heart for our rivals. You may feel differently .
But what should keep us all up at night is the fact that the United States does not have leaders ready for these challenges. Joe Biden has never met a foreign-policy idea he couldn’t screw up. He has a history of trying to write off problems by resorting to the most divisive solution imaginable, the partition of nations . Biden is also shockingly unpopular and widely considered a lame-duck by his own party .
Most worrisome of all is that he does not appear to be in great shape; he often looks and sounds every day of his 79 years. He could very well be succeeded by his vice president, Kamala Harris — who is widely believed to be loathed by the staff of the current White House, as well as by her own staff . She is known for not doing her homework on important questions, for not standing behind her own words, and she could potentially inherit Biden’s staff.
World history is full of satrapies, colonies, and revisionist powers who wait until an abdication crisis, or a leadership vacuum — however temporary — before taking their big gamble. The chance of an epic miscalculation — by us, by our rivals, or by our friends — is growing by the day.
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A chance for epic miscalculation?
I'd say the chances of Russia invading the Ukraine and China going after Taiwan in some way before the end of Biden's term are almost 100%.
Or even worse, someone takes Biden out... much like Kennedy was taken out.... and they tried to take Reagan out.... This would leave Ms Harris as the commander in chief....
You think anyone is going to go to war for her?.... Ms Harris in the WH would be the best things that could happen for our enemies...
AS far as Russia and the Ukraine? the leader of the UN has already said if that happens, (and he thinks it is going to happen) the USA (nato) is going to have problems with Germany trying to get nukes into Germany... He doesn't believe Germany will support Nato...
Harris is the best possible policy of assassination insurance.
That would really change the equation. Biden would become a martyr and democrats wouldn't have to nationalize elections!
You think anyone is going to go to war for her?.... Ms Harris in the WH would be the best things that could happen for our enemies...
No, nor would she defend American interests. Another win for China!
AS far as Russia and the Ukraine? the leader of the UN has already said if that happens, (and he thinks it is going to happen) the USA (nato) is going to have problems with Germany trying to get nukes into Germany... He doesn't believe Germany will support Nato...
Germany has become the great pacifist nation!
Very scary but what's behind her right now is far, far worse.
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You mean like Biden is doing right now
Let me fix this for ya brother... {chuckle}
You mean like Biden THINKS he is doing now...
You mean BLM and Antifa? Same here.
I am am prepping for the day they darken my doorstep. Seems those domestic terrorists cannot help themselves. They were supposed to quiet down once Biden was in charge./S
What type of ammo do you use in your slingshot?
He actually owns a gun or two.
You mean the one Biden is ignoring?
Hillary promised!
It won't help around here.
Nerf guns won't help much out there either.
Not in this group!
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Likely the same kind that David used to biblical effect.
wrist rocket with marbles.
A wet paper bag filled with feathers would be just as effective in popping the thin skinned.
equal in generating noise by those easily offended maybe, but that would never leave a welt.
Lol a clear pot/kettle gambit ...... the TDS ridden have skin so thin it's translucent ......
re: 1.2.19 [& 1.2.20]
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You guys act so tough. But I will tell you if I had a choice to follow you or Sparty into battle...I'll choose Sparty any day of the week and twice on Sundays. He really does have actual experience shooting weapons and he has war experience
I'd choose Sparty too! Go Marines!
I agree, although I think it will be a lot sooner than later. Like maybe very soon. Russia can only keep those troops there for so long before morale and equipment starts breaking down. I'm surprised we aren't hearing about China massing troops and equipment for Taiwan. If Russia invades there will be no better time for China to go after Taiwan. And I don't think we're prepared. Nor do I think Washington D.C. has the will to do anything effective about it.
US military experts believe that it will be within a few months, when the ground gets nice and hard, the kind of ground that is so good to tanks.
I'm surprised we aren't hearing about China massing troops and equipment for Taiwan.
I think China will use intimidation and a few carrots first, but obviously they would want it done while Biden is in office.
To take an old line from Winston Churchill - Biden is sheep in sheep's clothing!
I just hope that they concentrate on Taiwan primarily. It’s a much more valuable ally and Russia isn’t like to try to take all or even most of Ukraine.
Really? They have already taken half the country.... The primary reason for this? Ukraine has applied directly to be a full member of NATO.... To Russia, that puts the enemy at the gates as their excuse.... The Ukraine is probably the most economically developed of all the regions of east Europe...
It's about projecting power.... Without the Ukraine they have a REAL difficult time projecting power over (read intimidating) Europe..
Why do you think that most of Nato has been dragging their feet on Ukranian full entry into Nato, It would be another Turkey as far as the Russians feel...
Perhaps all you military experts can tell us what the US can/will do in the event that China invades Taiwan and Russia invades Ukraine. A full-out confrontation with either of the countries, would you be willing to go to the front line to defend them, how about sending your kids or grandkids.
Talk is cheap.
Yep it certainly is, not too many left from our generation... But then again in this kind of situation there are no military geniuses...
You'll only know of a military genius when there is an actual time for them.
True as far as conventional war, but the world has never experienced a nuclear war, and in that case what I said is the truth... no level of conventional experience will give one understanding enough to implement that...
If, (and many think it is when not if) Russia moves into the rest of Ukraine the primary response is nuclear, cause simply there is no way to get conventional assets into the area fast enough to prevent it... This is causing the ambivalence in the Ukrainian government, THEY know how far out on a limb they sit...
The hard part of war of any type is identifying the geniuses, it usually take a bit of killing before they come to the fore... You can tell who the good leaders are but the real geniuses don't show up till after there is a great need for them, on that aspect I agree 100%
Who would start a nuclear war, Russia, China, or the US? No matter who starts it, it would be committing instant suicide.
China does not need to start a nuclear war they will do it economically, one only has to look at the South Pacific, South and Central American, the Eastern Balkans or Africa to see their footprint.
Agreed, MAD is just as valid today as it was in the '60's, the next world war will be a series of small conflicts between small opponents with the domination of the major opponents... It will be a strange conflict, sphere's of influence making for some very strange bedfellows much like Afghanistan and the Syrian civil war... A bunch of little Vietnams all over the world... The idea will be to push a country's economic system to collapse.... We are not the only ones to have had a "Vietnam" experience... Both Russia (as the USSR) and China has as well...
The next WW will be balkanized as far as combat and the major opponents will hammer it out digitally over computers...
There are no geniuses in that type of war...
INSANITY
Ya! All the bad ass armchair warriors do not impress!
meh, the ukraine has nukes. stand back and watch them turn central russia into the planet's biggest glass dance floor while the fallout drifts over china and causes half a billion chinese to glow in the dark.
that or hold war rallies for all the war hawks here, drug them, stuff them into transports, put parachutes on them, drop them into crimea, and let them live out their short merc/militia fantasies somewhere else.
/s
No doubt these Monday morning quarterbacks will pull out their best weapon to fight back against fascism and communism, the conservative meme! Of course most of their weapons will be turned toward our own leadership because they're more interested in undercutting our own government so it fails and their party can regain power than they are in actually solving any global crisis.
Place either Democrats or Republicans for 'their' and the statement is just as true.
Germany wants the pipeline from Russia and that is what matters not what the US wants. If Germany objected too the US running a pipeline from Canada to the US we would tell them to piss off.
Many in Germany don’t want it and most all of Western Europe opposes it.
Many more do want the pipeline. If Western Europe opposes I don't think the Germans give a shit. In fact if they are so opposed to it then they should stop buying oil and natural gas from Russia. Russia supplies over 30% of oil used in WE and over 35% of natural gas.
Germany stupidly abandoned nuclear power to placate their Greens and then did the same again to phase out coal. Being dependent upon Russia for gas was their stupid policy. The left in Germany prefers Russian gas to American LNG because their left prefers Russia to America just like our left does
That's a pretty ignorant comment, XX.
I see that you have no response to my comment re the WE. Typical of the uninformed.
BTW, Russian natural gas is 30 to 40% cheaper than US LNG. More facts for you.
France produces 70% of its electricity from nuclear power yet they are one of the largest buyers of Russian national gas. More facts for you
Germany is stupid for abandoning nuclear power and coal for foreign supplied gas. Anyone making themselves dependent upon Russia is setting themselves up for being blackmailed by their dictator.