Polar Ice Changes

Rich Love,

I was betting if I put that up as a story, you would write a piece. I just wished I made some money on it, LOL.

I'll let Rich explain that comment.

[[Nobody knows exactly when the Arctic will lose its summer ice cover
....
If ice is melting, the ocean can absorb more and more solar energy. And that extra heat will have to go somewhere limiting winter ice growth and accelerating summer melt]]

Predicting that is a very big assumption . And even if it did happen it would be short lived . Why ? We have this thing which happens every year called Fall . And it is followed every year by what we call Winter .Heat does not build up permanently . It dissipates to space at night ... every night .

Now I realize that the AGW theory predicts that the dissipation is reduced due to CO2 . But quantitatively that would make a large assumption that the heat blocking effect is not saturated at the lower levels of CO2 we used to have . But it is .

So ... you didn't win any money ... Why not ? If you need long lived proof just put my article over with the columnists .

Opps. Sorry!

But since our chat I found this:

Arctic winter, spring and autumn surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies and associated sea level pressure (SLP) fields have decidedly different spatial patterns at the beginning of the 21st century (20002007) compared to most of the 20th century; we suggest calling this recent interval the Arctic warm period. For example, spring melt date as measured at the North Pole Environmental Observatory (20022007) is 7 d earlier than the records from the Russian North Pole stations (19371987) and statistically different at the 0.05 level. The 20th century was dominated by the two main climate patterns, the Arctic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode (AO/NAM) and the Pacific North American-like (PNA*) pattern. The predominately zonal winds associated with the positive phases of these patterns contribute to warm anomalies in the Arctic primarily over their respective Eastern and Western Hemisphere land areas, as in 19891995 and 19771987. In contrast, SAT in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) for 20002007 show an Arctic-wide SAT anomaly of greater than +1.0C and regional hot spots over the central Arctic of greater than +3.0C. Unlike the AO and PNA*, anomalous geostrophic winds for 20002007 often tended to blow toward the central Arctic, a meridional wind circulation pattern. In spring 20002005, these winds were from the Bering Sea toward the North Pole, whereas in 20062007 they were mostly from the eastern Barents Sea. A meridional pattern was also seen in the late 1930s with anomalous winter (DJFM) SAT, at Spitzbergen, of greater than +4C. Both periods suggest natural atmospheric advective contributions to the hot spots with regional loss of sea ice. Recent warm SAT anomalies in autumn are consistent with climate model projections in response to summer reductions in sea ice extent. The recent dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice appears to be due to a combination of a global warming signal and fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate patterns.

onlinelibrary.wiley...

Hey, buy this book. It keeps my husband in work, LOL!

Robert ,

If you float me a loan I will buy a Volt . As it is the government is not helping much . All the incentives are taken out of taxes . And I don't pay taxes because I'm not making money . However , I am working on some ideas to refurbish my cash flow . When they pan out I'll be happy to pay you back ...
"Thank you for your support" from Bartels and James .

Aww Robert,

Love poems. Thank you!

These 2 issues are not closely connected . I don't know how you arrived at that connection . My interest in the Volt is predicated on the independence that is gives from petroleum . I don't know how someone who takes your position on the middle east could not get that value . This is NOT a green issue !

OK , that was quite a lot of issues all rolled up into discussion of the Volt . I will take them one at a time :

The idea for the Volt was conceived by GM back during the Bush administration . In other words it was not an Obama funded initiative . The Volt is a separate issue from the government bailout for GM . If GM goes under they can still sell the idea [patents and manufacturing ] to someone else to take over .

As a result I have little interest in defending the Obama bailout plan of GM , although it may turn out to be a fiscally profitable bailout eventually . GM is selling more cars again mostly due to purchases from China .

[[I don't for a second believe that we can strangle the oil countries out of revenue, so that secondary dream of cutting revenue to Islamic movements is also an illusion.]]

You may have something here but the quantitative aspects of it are what is crucial . Reducing transportation's complete dependence on oil is paramount in my mind . People do need transportation , both personal and commercial . By removing that dependence it will permit the US to withdraw from association with the Arab middle east . That means no more foreign aid to those countries which keep attacking our embassies . Let the growing economies of China and others deal with the problems . It also means an improved balance of trade since cash will no longer exit to pay for imported petroleum . BTW this year imports of Persian Gulf oil are up by more than 70 % from their recent lows .

[[The result, globally, is the carbon will be emitted.]]

Yep . That is not a big issue with me since I do not accept the CO2 connection to global climate change .

[[Well, I've stated before that Western interest in the region is about free trade. Before anyone cared about oil.]]

I recall your making that statement in the past but I am not convinced . There are certain trade crossing points which can be critical but I don't think that the entire middle east is crucial for trade ... except for oil . But feel free to educate me on this subject .

[[since we both agree that our use of Mideast oil, or not, will not decrease the revenue]]

I have not agreed with that . If there is substantial decrease in demand then revenues will also decrease . It merely won't go to zero . As of now , the biggest user of petroleum products is still the US [to my knowledge] . Even though China is showing the largest growth in petroleum usage they are not up to us yet . In a few years that could change . But right now the number of personal cars is still not many in China . There are quite a few motorcycles and electric bicycles .

[[Europe still has the same problems]]

But if they had a sizeable deployment of electric vehicles they would also be able to escape some of that dependency too . I expect the bigger problem for Europe is the winter heating fuels .

[[What do you foresee as the maximum amount we could reduce our dependence on foreign oil in the next twenty years?]]

That is an excellent question . I'm sorry that I don't have an answer to a highly complex quantitative issue like that .

[[For you, when you say "if we no longer depend..." you should have an answer as to how we get there, and the likelihood of getting there.]]

I am looking at this from the POV of an engineer . I do not perceive any major technical stumbling blocks to prevent it but I do perceive a need for it . I think it is an inevitability that the use of electrified vehicles will become widespread . The answer to when is beyond me .

[[AND, I would say further that 50 percent reduction by the US wouldn't change any of those either.]]

I expect a 50 % reduction in the west [there is no reason to restrict it to the US] would produce sizeable changes in oil revenues . Now , I'll grant you that China would begin to soak up the newly priced oil as would India . But the capital expenditure required to purchase new cars would limit just how much would happen .

Mike ,

The pole shift is a shift in the magnetic poles , not the rotational poles and that has no effect on ice .

[[the theory is that the rotational poles would shift to whatever becomes the new north and south poles, as has happened in the past.]]

Do you have any idea of what would be required for that to happen ? I do . And it is not going to happen . Yeah , I am that confident .
However feel free to post a link to some highly imaginative website which makes those claims . Just don't be surprised if I debunk it ...

Since the magnetic poles get a lot weaker before they actually shift [for quite a long time] magnetic compasses would become non-funtional . Getting a new one would not help either . Your best bet is to get a GPS [if the satellites are not damaged] . But winter and summer would still happen on time and at the same intensity as today .

Pole Shift coming in December.

Do we have an exact time yet? I need to remember and set the timer on the DVR!

Asking Mike if he is serious is generally a fruitless effort ...

Apparently the southland will rise again ...

Mike ,

You've got a lot of crust to post a comment like that . BTW , is that what it takes to get credibility with you ... wears nerd-like glasses and talks about mystical BS ? I sometimes wear nerd-like glasses but I talk about known shit ... physics chemistry ... stuff like that .

Ok thanks; wouldn't want to miss the big day!

Well I still wanna DVR it...citizenjournalismat it's best!

Mike ,

There's a term for the wobble of the earth's rotation . It's called precession . I studied the mathematics for precession in engineering school . Here is the dictionary definition :

This guy is making stuff up . The coriolis effect ... does he even know what that is ?

We will all know something is amiss when the NFL starts hiring Mayan ancestry referees .

I havent read the comments yet, but this topic is particularly interesting to me. As noted in the article, Antarctic Ice has an impact on sea levels (the more ice, the lower the water levels, and vice versa) while Arctic ice has no appreciable impact on the ocean water levels.

Rich, I just finished reading a book which you might find of interest. It is entitled "Across Atlantic Ice: The Origin of America's Clovis Culture". As part of the anthropological study, it was necessary to study the science of our last Ice Age (LGM). Very, very fascinating albeit somewhat dry read. The two points of emphasis in the book were stone flaking technology and the last Ice Age itself. Especially interesting since the popular perception of an Ice Age is that the entire world freezes over, which is of course completely inaccurate, lol. Anyways, you might consider giving it a read.

I don't think they could do much worse than the crop they've got in there now!

S'okay, I stream all the games for free on my computer anyway, lol. Plus, I get tired of seeing big muscles Hockuli...and really, aside from him and the skinny black ref whose name I cant remember right now, the refs weren't that good anyway. I see no real drop off with the replacements, but intensely heightened scrutiny which leads to an increased awareness of botched or missed calls. The actual refereeing however is pretty much the same.

[[I stream all the games for free on my computer anyway]]

Holy shite ! That is the promised land of the interwebs ... What is the link to this mystical nirvana ?!

UStream is my go to free sports broadcast streaming spot. I watched the super bowl last year and all the games I wanted to so far this year.

He is well loved for sure. Except by the NFL it would seem.

Arctic Cyclone Breaks Up Sea Ice

A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012.
nasa

NASA finally admits it Arctic cyclone in August broke up and wreaked havoc on sea ice Reuters reports Arctic storm played key role in this seasons sea ice reduction.

wattsupwiththat