The Sorcerers' Apprentices ... ... by Bob Nelson
According to Webster, an amateur is:
1 : one who engages in a pursuit, study, science, or sport as a pastime rather than as a profession
2 : one l acking in experience and competence in an art or science
3 : devotee , admirer
According to Webster, an expert is:
1 (obsolete) : experienced
2 : having, involving, or displaying special skill or knowledge derived from training or experience
There was a time when I was an expert on a particular subject - legally, that is, for the courts, and all that - but I've been retired for a long time, and have not kept up. Still... I can remember my annoyance, back then, when someone who knew "a little" would argue with me, who knew a lot. "A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"... it makes its holder a fool.
Being an amateur, I am "a devotee" of many subjects, but I defer to the experts. It would not occur to me to dispute the words of an expert.
As a society, we often don't allow amateurs to make decisions of importance: one must be qualified to practice medicine or law... or many, many other professions. We don't hire personnel randomly; we inquire about experience and references. We recognize that there are experts and there are amateurs... and we don't treat the two with the same gravitas. ... except when we do...
There's a trap... or three... waiting for the Sorcerer's Apprentice who imagines himself competent to have an opinion on a topic that he really doesn't know well enough.
A zealous amateur may overestimate his competence to the point of challenging the expertise of ... experts ... That is nonsense, semantically, and in the real world, too.
Then there are two solutions. One may laugh at one's own folly... and move on. Or one may double down. Persisting with an idea that is contrary to the experts may... momentarily... win great esteem among the tribe of those who believe the same because they know equally little... but ultimately, it's a losing game.
I've never seen a Higgs boson, and never will. I know it exists because a bunch of very smart, very experienced people at CERN did a series of experiments and found such a high probability of its existence that it's silly to say no. I've never seen a black hole. I've never seen a virus. I've never seen a radio wave. I've never seen a blue whale. I know they are all real... because the experts know them well - so well that these things we've never seen are part of our everyday lives.
So... how do I know if I'm listening to a genuine expert, or to a shill?
I listen to lots of people who claim to be experts. I try to discern which among them are respected by the others. Which have a good track record. This may cause me to miss the genial outlier who is about to revolutionize her field of knowledge... but let's face it, the Wegeners of this world are very, very rare.
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Gradually, I've come to understand that much of what is posted here on NT is not really "belief". The poster doesn't really "believe" because the poster doesn't know the subject well enough for that.
The poster is making a declaration of fidelity to the tribe. The Tribal Elders have declared that such-and-such is Truth, so the poster is proving his loyalty to the tribe by defending such-and-such. He may even see himself as proving his courage, because the opponents of such-and-such are ferocious!
The topic may be anything, from history to science to economics... there is a Tribal Truth which must be defended.
there is a Tribal Truth which must be defended
There is only one truth, the difficulty lies in finding it.
I have avoided the AGW quagmire for a long time. I don't care much for banging my head against a wall.
So I was surprised by the Society of Wackadoodle Denialists' Standard Bullet Points , as posted in Replies when I seeded two recent articles about the far north of Alaska, here and here .
What happened to the " Great Global Warming Hoax "... the world-wide conspiracy of grant-grubbing climatologists? When did it vanish? Why did it disappear?
I follow the news fairly assiduously, so I'm pretty sure that I would have noticed the arrest and trial of the conspirators, if that had been the end of the "Great Global Warming Hoax". But I have seen nothing. On the contrary, most American media (and almost all media elsewhere in the free world) have continued to operate on the assumption that AGW is as real as gravity.
So... down what rabbit-hole has the "Great Global Warming Hoax" disappeared?
The local NewsTalker members the Society of Wackadoodle Denialists have seemingly forgotten the "Great Global Warming Hoax"! Amongst all the vituperation against AGW, the "Great Global Warming Hoax" is never mentioned . Have the Global Warming Conspirators found some way to excise the memories of the Society of Wackadoodle Denialists?
Can anyone explain this mystery?