Imaginary Health Care Horrors
Theres a lot of fuzzy math in American politics, but Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, the chairman of the House Rules Committee, recently set a new standard when he declared the cost of Obamacare unconscionable. If you do simple multiplication, he insisted , you find that the coverage expansion is costing $5 million per recipient. But his calculation was a bit off namely, by a factor of more than a thousand. The actual cost per newly insured American is about $4,000.
Now, everyone makes mistakes. But this wasnt a forgivable error. Whatever your overall view of the Affordable Care Act, one indisputable fact is that its costing taxpayers much less than expected about 20 percent less , according to the Congressional Budget Office. A senior member of Congress should know that, and he certainly has no business making speeches about an issue if he wont bother to read budget office reports.
But that is, of course, how its been all along with Obamacare. Before the law went into effect, opponents predicted disaster on all levels. What has happened instead is that the law is working pretty well. So how have the prophets of disaster responded? By pretending that the bad things they said would happen have, in fact, happened.
Costs arent the only area where enemies of reform prefer to talk about imaginary disasters rather than real success stories. Remember, Obamacare was also supposed to be a huge job-killer. In 2011, the House even passed a bill called the Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act . Health reform, opponents declared, would cripple the economy and in particular cause businesses to force their employees into part-time work.
Well, Obamacare went into effect fully at the beginning of 2014 and private-sector job growth actually accelerated, to a pace we havent seen since the Clinton years. Meanwhile, involuntary part-time employment the number of workers who want full-time work but cant get it has dropped sharply. But the usual suspects talk as if their dire predictions came true. Obamacare, Jeb Bush declared a few weeks ago, is the greatest job suppressor in the so-called recovery.
Finally, theres the never-ending hunt for snarks and boojums for ordinary, hard-working Americans who have suffered hardship thanks to health reform. As weve just seen, Obamacare opponents by and large dont do math (and theyre sorry when they try). But all they really need are a few sob stories, tales of sympathetic individuals who have been impoverished by some aspect of the law.
Remarkably, however, they havent been able to find those stories. Early last year, Americans for Prosperity , a Koch brothers-backed group, ran a series of ads featuring alleged Obamacare victims but not one of those tales of woe stood up to scrutiny. More recently, Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington State took to Facebook to ask for Obamacare horror stories. What she got instead was a torrent of testimonials from people whose lives have been improved, and in some cases saved, by health reform.
In reality, the only people hurt by health reform are Americans with very high incomes, who have seen their taxes go up, and a relatively small number of people who have seen their premiums rise because theyre young and healthy (so insurers previously saw them as good risks) and affluent (so they dont qualify for subsidies). Neither group supplies suitable victims for attack ads.
In short, when it comes to the facts, the attack on health reform has come up empty-handed. But the public doesnt know that. The good news about costs hasnt made it through at all: According to a recent poll by Vox.com , only 5 percent of Americans know that Obamacare is costing less than predicted, while 42 percent think the government is spending more than expected.
And the favorable experiences of the roughly 16 million Americans who have gained insurance so far have had little effect on public perceptions. Partly thats because the Affordable Care Act, by design, has had almost no effect on those who already had good health insurance: Before the act, a large majority of Americans were already covered by their employers, by Medicare or by Medicaid, and they have seen no change in their status.
At a deeper level, however, what were looking at here is the impact of post-truth politics. We live in an era in which politicians and the supposed experts who serve them never feel obliged to acknowledge uncomfortable facts, in which no argument is ever dropped, no matter how overwhelming the evidence that its wrong.
And the result is that imaginary disasters can overshadow real successes. Obamacare isnt perfect, but it has dramatically improved the lives of millions. Someone should tell the voters.
Imaginary Health Care Horrors
by Paul Krugman, New York Times
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It certainly worked for us!
We were able to keep my step-daughter on our plan while her husband was in physical therapy school-- good thing, because she has been diagnosed with MS, and needed the insurance to help pay for her medication, that costs $1500/mo., with insurance, $5000/mo without.
Since her husband was a student, she paid little or nothing.
Thank heavens! She was able to have her diagnostic tests, get her medications, etc. Thank you Obamacare!
People follow the lead of Fox News.
Obamacare definitely has some victims . Leave it to Krugman to ignore them .