Theresa May survives but the Brexit conundrum remains
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
LONDON — It was a moment of high drama, but one that brings the United Kingdom no closer to solving its Brexit riddle.
On Wednesday night, Prime Minister Theresa May survived a bid to oust her triggered by lawmakers within her ruling Conservatives.
But with around one-third of May's party colleagues voting to get rid of her, many saw it as yet another blow to her authority.
The fact remains: Brexit is now effectively a game of brinkmanship .
Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016 and is set to complete this exit on March 29. But right now politicians can't agree how this divorce should work.
If they can't come up with a plan, the default scenario is that the U.K. will crash out of the E.U. without a deal — something experts say would have disastrous consequences for the British public.
Economic misery , gridlocked ports , shortages of medicine and food, disrupted flights and a potential rekindling of violence in Northern Ireland are all very real threats.
The question is: Will the threat of a painful no-deal Brexit be enough for one of the factions to blink?
"It's a gridlock scenario," said Professor Feargal Cochrane at the University of Kent. "Even if Theresa May had lost the leadership challenge, whoever replaced her would face the same problems."
May has negotiated a divorce settlement with the E.U. but it needs to be confirmed by the British Parliament. This looks unlikely because it is hugely unpopular among lawmakers of all stripes.
The prime minister has already postponed a vote on her deal because she knew she would lose. She has promised it will be rescheduled before Jan. 21, just two months before Brexit happens.
Some experts think the only chance May has of passing her deal is if lawmakers get to this final crunch phase — with a no-deal Brexit looming weeks away — and are spooked into believing May's deal, or a tweaked version of it, is the only way to avoid disaster.
That would require either Conservative or opposition Labour politicians to compromise, supporting a deal they had previously vowed to oppose.
"I think May's strategy is to run the clock down to the very last second," Cochrane said.
If May's own lawmakers can't be convinced, might European officials budge enough to break the deadlock? On current evidence, that looks unlikely.
The main problem with May's plan is how it would impact the border between Northern Ireland, with is part of the U.K., and the Irish Republic, which is a separate country and will remain part of the E.U.
Many worry the prime ministers' solution — the so-called Irish backstop — gives the E.U. too much power, could break up the U.K., or even risks a return to the sectarian violence that plagued the region for much of the 20th century.
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Cameron brought on the Brexit vote and left May to deal with the fallout. Is there anyone or any way to figure this through?
I doubt it. I big part of the problem is it is beset with all the doomsayers saying all the worst possible things are going to happen when they really do not know....
Fears are driving the issues not any reality. And it is turning the politics upside down.....
My take? much like the world was going to end with the "2k Bug" which people knowledgeable about computers was laughing about.... people knowledgeable about how economies work realize that they are making mountains out of molehills.... But there are many people who want it to go their way as against the other way, and none of them know what is really going to happen....
Hence all the irrational fears being propagandized all over.... which creates even more fears.....
I don't think they can come up with a plan and it looks like second guessing themselves is going to cut their own throats.....
At this point, let it happen, It's going to anyway. and in many ways it's too late to stop it.....
England has the largest financial market outside New York, that is not going to be broken...... the day after brexit will remarkably be just like the day before....
I have a new found respect for May. She appears to be trying very hard to honor the will of the people. They voted for Brexit, she should try to get it done. Whatever it takes.
That said, if you can believe the press, the British people are even more divided than us. Making it a VERY difficult task. I really believe that is where much of their "discord" is being sown. In the media that is.
I'd say it's the opposite. The people voted for Brexit, her deal doesn't reflect that. Brexit was about reestablishing democratic sovereignty in GB, and her deal leaves GB bound to EU policies and rules with no end in sight.
The only way forward is a no deal hard exit.
Ah, guess i haven't been following it close enough.
Thx