Opinions | As Trump dials up the hate, a new poll shows he’s in trouble

  
Via:  john-russell  •  one week ago  •  21 comments

Opinions | As Trump dials up the hate, a new poll shows he’s in trouble
How can a majority rate the economy well even as Trump himself remains underwater on it? One answer is that Trump isn’t getting the credit for the state of the economy, probably because his individual economic policies remain deeply unpopular and Americans fear things are deteriorating.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


Call it Trump’s Law: The more it looks like President Trump is in political trouble on the economy, the louder he’ll crank up the dial on his hate-mongering.


The confluence of two new events neatly captures this dynamic: Trump’s rally in North Carolina on Monday night at which he fearmongered relentlessly about immigrants and socialists, and the release of a   new Post-ABC News poll   showing Trump’s numbers on the economy slipping perilously.

The   new Post-ABC News poll   paints an ugly picture for Trump. His approval rating now sits at 38 percent, a drop of 6 points since June. Approval of his handling of the economy has slipped 5 points, to 46 percent, with 47 percent disapproving.

And while 56 percent rate the economy positively, 60 percent expect a recession in the next year. An abysmal 35 percent approve of Trump’s handling of trade relations with China, vs. 56 percent who disapprove — even as 60 percent are concerned that Trump’s trade war will hike prices for them.

How can a majority rate the economy well even as Trump himself remains underwater on it? One answer is that Trump isn’t getting the credit for the state of the economy, probably because his individual economic policies remain deeply unpopular and Americans fear things are deteriorating.

Dig into the demographic breakdowns and it looks worse. The Associated Press   reports that Trump advisers worry   that support for Trump among moderate Republican and independent voters is very tenuous and could easily be ruptured by an economic slowdown — a reference to the more educated and suburban white voters Trump absolutely must win back.

And the Post-ABC News poll confirms those fears: Among both independents and college-educated whites, Trump’s approval is an abysmal 36 percent, and large majorities of both groups expect a recession and disapprove of Trump’s handling of China and trade. Remarkably, only 42 percent of college-educated whites approve of Trump on the economy, vs. 53 percent who disapprove.

Trump’s hate on full display


Trump jetted to North Carolina on Monday to salvage a special House election for Republicans in a district that he carried in 2016 by 11 points. Even a tight Republican victory will suggest that Trump could remain a major liability for the GOP heading into 2020; as one elections expert   puts it , this race wouldn’t be at all close if it weren’t for him.

And yet, at his rally, Trump cranked up the hate-mongering to 11. He   goaded   his audience into venting angry abuse at reporters covering the event. He   smeared   undocumented immigrants as “hardened, horrible criminals.” He   claimed   that Democrats are releasing rapists into communities. He   railed   that the election is a referendum on the socialist and “America-hating left.”

That Trump needs to go to such great lengths to rev up his base — in a frantic effort to put the Republican over the top in a district he won overwhelmingly only three years ago — is remarkable.

Michael Bitzer , an expert   on North Carolina politics , told me that this race captures how Trump and the GOP are caught in a trap. Because Trump has alienated more moderate and educated white voters with his performance as president, including in Republican-leaning suburbs, this forces Trump to pull out all the stops in pumping up base turnout.

“It’s almost a Devil’s bargain,” Bitzer said, noting that Trump needs to ply the base with “anger and energy to motivate them,” but that this risks alienating “moderate, college-educated white voters, especially women in the suburbs.”

And so, even if Democrat Dan McCready loses a close race, how moderate white voters in the suburbs of Charlotte break could be a key tell as to how badly Trump is still alienating those voters. If McCready somehow wins, of course, that only further underscores the point.

The interesting question is why it has come to this.

The big Trump fail


At his rally, Trump preposterously claimed that he is turning around “this big beautiful ship” known as America “very quickly,” a story that’s in keeping with his frequent lie that he inherited nothing but smoking wreckage from his predecessor that he’s rapidly converting into the greatest economy in U.S. history.

Trump also told an absurd tale about his trade war with China, falsely claiming China is paying billions and billions of dollars to the United States in tariffs and suggesting more broadly that Trump is grinding China into abject submission. Watch these videos:

But if Trump’s economy really were the greatest in history, and if Trump really were crushing China with his manly bare hands, then why would he need to work so hard to energize the base with hate and lies, and why would he be struggling to offset major alienation among independents and educated and suburban whites to bail out a Republican in a district he won overwhelmingly?

The Post-ABC News poll helps answer this question. Republicans like to say that Trump will win back those educated white voters — who are relatively affluent — when they decide his economic performance makes it worth it for them to overlook his daily lunacy. But as noted above, the poll finds that Trump’s numbers on the economy and trade among college-educated whites are terrible.

This is forcing Trump to squeeze his base ever harder and harder for votes, necessitating the sort of display we saw on Monday night. That might be enough to win a district that Trump carried by 11 points, but the frantic effort required to make this happen itself doesn’t bode particularly well for Trump and Republicans in 2020

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JohnRussell
1  seeder  JohnRussell    one week ago
Trump jetted to North Carolina on Monday to salvage a special House election for Republicans in a district that he carried in 2016 by 11 points. Even a tight Republican victory will suggest that Trump could remain a major liability for the GOP heading into 2020; as one elections expert puts it , this race wouldn’t be at all close if it weren’t for him.

And yet, at his rally, Trump cranked up the hate-mongering to 11. He goaded his audience into venting angry abuse at reporters covering the event. He smeared undocumented immigrants as “hardened, horrible criminals.” He claimed that Democrats are releasing rapists into communities. He railed that the election is a referendum on the socialist and “America-hating left.”

That Trump needs to go to such great lengths to rev up his base — in a frantic effort to put the Republican over the top in a district he won overwhelmingly only three years ago — is remarkable.

An NBC news reporter flat out called this election a referendum on Trump , and says that many of the people she talked to at the polling place say they came out to vote to voice an opinion on Trump. If the Democrat wins it will be a clear sign that Trump is in trouble, and even if the Republican wins but it is closer than 10 points it will be seen as a bad sign for Trump. The Democrat McReedy holds a slight lead in the final polls. 

 
 
 
squiggy
1.1  squiggy  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one week ago

Maybe, instead of this chinese titty twister, a cigar is just a cigar and the voters might punish the GOP for their lack of representation by way of politicians being cheating assholes.

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
1.1.1  igknorantzrulz  replied to  squiggy @1.1    one week ago

i can actually agree with most of that

 
 
 
squiggy
1.2  squiggy  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one week ago

... or maybe the people of North Carolina have had it with Jerry Beatbrow Nadler and Sacramento Bitch and pushed the dem to the curb. 

 
 
 
squiggy
1.2.1  squiggy  replied to  squiggy @1.2    one week ago

... or it was Floridian collusion.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
1.3  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one week ago

The vote tonight, in a congressional district Trump won by 12 points in 2016, is going to go down to the wire. . Sign of things to come? 

 
 
 
MUVA
1.3.1  MUVA  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3    one week ago

Maybe but regardless of the out come CNN will spin and you will repeat it. 

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
1.3.2  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3    one week ago

The Republican won and did better then he did in 2018 when he was accused of cheating.

And the Republican in other other open contest won by about 24 points in a district that is considered +24 Republican. 

The environment is much better today than it was in 2018 for Republicans.  

 
 
 
Texan1211
1.3.3  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3    one week ago
Sign of things to come? 

Republicans winning and Democrats whining?

 
 
 
JBB
1.3.4  JBB  replied to  Sean Treacy @1.3.2    one week ago

The Republican who was guilty of cheating in 2018 was not even running this time. It was a different candidate yet his margin of victory was minuscule in a district Trump won by 20 points in 2016...

 
 
 
squiggy
1.3.5  squiggy  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3    one week ago

Things s to come? Yea, losing. The republicans, who could have been punished for cheating, still prevailed in the face of leftism.

 
 
 
Texan1211
1.4  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one week ago
An NBC news reporter flat out called this election a referendum on Trump , and says that many of the people she talked to at the polling place say they came out to vote to voice an opinion on Trump

Looks like the highly-vaunted referendum fell a little short for Democrats.

That's sad.

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
2  igknorantzrulz    one week ago

How it has taken this long, is a damn shame, and reflects pretty horribly on our nation, as a whole.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  igknorantzrulz @2    one week ago
 Among both independents and college-educated whites, Trump’s approval is an abysmal 36 percent, and large majorities of both groups expect a recession and disapprove of Trump’s handling of China and trade. Remarkably, only 42 percent of college-educated whites approve of Trump on the economy, vs. 53 percent who disapprove.

America has passed judgement on Trump, and it is not pretty for him. It's no joke that his only chance may be to throw an avalanche of mud at  the Democratic candidates and the nominee. 

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
2.1.1  igknorantzrulz  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one week ago
It's no joke that his only chance may be to throw an avalanche of mud at  the Democratic candidates and the nominee. 

Why would he change tactix now anyway...

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one week ago
America has passed judgement on Trump, and it is not pretty for him. It's no joke that his only chance may be to throw an avalanche of mud at  the Democratic candidates and the nominee. 

Throwing mud?

You DID watch the Democratic debates, no?

How hypocritical!

Of COURSE candidates are ALL going to throw mud. That is what politics is now.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
2.1.3  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one week ago

It's no joke that his only chance may be to throw an avalanche of mud at the

Worked for Obama against Romney, might well work for Trump.  Obama Ads like "not one of us" are a good template on how to other an opponent. 

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
2.1.4  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.2    one week ago

Just further reasons political polls are some of the most useless things on the face of the Earth.

 
 
 
Tacos!
3  Tacos!    one week ago
He   smeared   undocumented immigrants as “hardened, horrible criminals.” He didn't smear all undocumented immigrants as criminals. Just the ones who are criminals.

The link says this:

On topic of sanctuary cities, Trump, already sweating, asks a woman in the crowd how she feels about having "them released [into your neighborhood] -- hardened, horrible criminals."

So the stated topic is "sanctuary cities" which generally means local law enforcement doesn't call ICE when they have an illegal alien in their custody. If they are being "released" then it's probably from jail, right? Wouldn't that make them criminals?

 
 
 
Texan1211
3.1  Texan1211  replied to  Tacos! @3    one week ago

Many on the left seem to love them some sanctuary cities and counties and states.

Why bother to have border security or immigration courts when the same folks do whatever they can to skirt around immigration laws and demand that the ones we have be broken?

Open borders will be here sometime. I hope I am long gone before that happens.

 
 
 
Tacos!
3.1.1  Tacos!  replied to  Texan1211 @3.1    one week ago
Many on the left seem to love them some sanctuary cities

Yes, and if you don't, then you are "dialing up the hate."

 
 
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