New State By State Projections For COVID-19
Use the Seeded Content button to go to the interactive charts page at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
This is the description header from the top of the page:
The charts below show projected hospital resource use based on COVID-19 deaths. The model assumes continued social distancing until the end of May 2020.
In locations without social distancing measures currently in place, we have assumed they will be in place within seven days of the last model update. If not, the number of deaths and burden on their hospital systems will likely be higher than the model predicts.
For answers to other frequently asked questions about the modeling, click here .
To view the paper with in-depth analysis and a description of the methods used to produce the projections, click here .
Note: Data last updated on March 31, 2020. ( See update notes )
Immediately following the header, there is a green bar with "United States of America" written on it (the default setting is for the entire country).
Click on that to open the drop down menu and switch to your state.
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These are essentially best case scenario projections.
I want to emphasize the following from the description:
It's interesting. I think we're already past getting best case results and now looking to mitigate worst case results generally speaking. Especially given that there are lawsuits already filed on rights to practice religion, rights to free assembly and rights to a speedy trial. We could be looking at a really long haul through August and possibly beyond.
Keep in mind that the projections are based upon allowing the pandemic to run its natural course. Treatment options that lessen the severity of symptoms can dramatically alter those projections.
Seasonal flu and colds follow the same patterns. But available treatments to lessen the severity of symptoms flattens the curve and reduces the time for recovery.
What the projections suggest is that the immediate need is development of treatment options. And the immediacy of the problem indicates that we can't wait for statistical studies. The bureaucratic requirements of statistical methodology will increase the severity of the pandemic. In the current crisis, the scientific method is as much an obstacle as it is a source of hope. At present we don't have the luxury of giving sugar pills to sick people.
Stay prepaired for the worst, and continue to hope for the best!
I think we are still way behind in responding to this outbreak. I watched the govenor of Georgia just yesterday state that he didn't know that people could be contageous while being asymptomatic. What information bubble is this supposed leader keeping himself in? How many deaths will be on his hands due to his lack of staying informed?