No lockdown in Sweden but Stockholm could see 'herd immunity' in weeks
Good news coming from Sweden as Stockholm could reach herd immunity in a matter of weeks.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
- Unlike its neighbors, Sweden did not impose a lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak.
- The strategy — aimed at building a broad-base of immunity while protecting at-risk groups like the elderly — has proved controversial.
- But Sweden's chief epidemiologist has said "herd immunity" could be reached in Stockholm within weeks.
Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.
The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.
But now, the country's chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that "herd immunity" could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.
Remember what this felt like? People enjoy the warm spring weather at Hornstull in Stockholm on April 21, 2020, during the new coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. JONATHAN NACKSTRAND
"In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we're already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks' time we'll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable," Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.
Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Reinfections of coronavirus have been reported.
Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm's population is already immune to the virus, and that "in a few weeks' time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we're seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more."
"Unfortunately the mortality rate is high due to the introduction (of the virus) in elderly care homes and we are investigating the cause of that," he said.
The major part of Sweden's 15,322 confirmed cases are in Stockholm and its surrounding areas, with very small incidences of the virus in the rest of Sweden — a country of around 10 million that has a low population density outside its urban hubs.
The number of cases in Sweden is almost double that in neighboring Denmark (it has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths) and Finland (with just over 4,000 cases and 141 deaths) that imposed strict lockdown measures. Since their populations are each about 5 million — half of Sweden's — the rates are about the same, although the comparison could be skewed by testing numbers in each country.
But Sweden's 1,937 deaths is far higher in number and proportionally to Denmark's 370 and Finland's 141.
Sweden originally tested only people who came into a hospital but is now testing more key workers and those in care homes. Tegnell said the decision to test more groups of people was a reason for the number of confirmed cases not declining as quickly as it could have.
Sweden is testing around 20,000 people a week and hopes to increase that to 100,000 in a few weeks' time, Tegnell said.
Elderly paying the price?
While the number of new cases appears to be declining, achieving herd immunity has proved controversial. Tacitly allowing the virus to spread (albeit having put measures in place to slow its spread) puts the elderly and people with existing health conditions at a greater risk of becoming seriously ill and, potentially, dying.
Tegnell conceded that the situation in Sweden's care homes, which have seen the majority of deaths from the coronavirus, is worrying.
"The death toll is very closely related to elderly care homes. More than half of the people that have died have lived in elderly care homes." Tegnell said, adding that he and the Public Health Agency are "still very concerned about the elderly."
"It's the group we said we needed to protect," he said, adding that the agency was working with homes to see what improvements could be made to lower risk factors.
Nonetheless, Tegnell said he was "fairly confident" in the strategy his agency had pursued but said it would be too early for the Swedish government to lift restrictions imposed to delay the spread of the virus. "A big part of the country has not been affected at all yet."
"(But) if you look at the exit strategies that now many countries have opted for, they look very much like Sweden's (strategy and restrictions)," he said.
People enjoy themselves at an outdoor restaruant, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in central Stockholm, Sweden, on April 20, 2020. ANDERS WIKLUND
Tegnell said that soon, several studies will be published to show the extent of infection and recovery (and hopefully) immunity to the virus. Data showed the peak of infections had already been reached in Stockholm.
Sweden's response to the pandemic has been guided by Tegnell and the Public Health Agency. While other countries have gone into lockdown at the advice of their scientific advisors, Sweden was conspicuous in its different approach, largely trusting the public to adopt voluntary measures to delay the spread of the virus.
Sweden's government has advocated working from home if at all possible and to avoid nonessential travel and social contact with the elderly. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have been offering seated table service only, and gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned. Yet schools for under 16-year-olds have remained open and life has generally carried on as before, just at a quieter pace.
Tegnell said the country was conducting more widespread testing and sampling to gauge the extent of the outbreak.
"We are right now going out and doing countrywide tests on immunity to see what big differences we have in different parts of Sweden," Tegnell said. "It's a little bit of a mystery why nothing has really happened in other parts of Sweden."
"The virus keeps on surprising us when it comes to this," he said, noting that the most southern region of the country, which borders Denmark, had seen relatively few cases given its border location and the constant movement of people between the countries, which was allowed to continue for the most part despite the virus.
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Good news coming from Sweden as Stockholm could reach herd immunity in a matter of weeks.
I guess it's good news if you are willing to let people die. Some might call that rather brutal.
It’s too early to tell but they could end up with less casualties per capita in the long run by developing herd immunity earlier.
Extrapolations indicate Sweden would end up with around 680,000 deaths to get to a 50% herd immunity.
Given our death rate here in the US, the same approach translates to around 9.8millon deaths.
That’s not what this article is indicating. Herd immunity is achieved when they reach 60% immunity rate and Stockholm is already at 20% with far lower deaths than you are posting.
“Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of “Stockholm's population is already immune to the virus, and that "in a few weeks' time we might reach herd immunity”
Here's the math..... Knock yourself out.
I think their method is sound in theory but the fact they have such high numbers of death in their nursing homes means they screwed it up. Letting the virus run through the heathy population to achieve herd immunity is a better way of protecting the vulnerable in the long run but in the short term you need to keep them and the people who care for them quarantined. The way we're doing it we'll have to keep our vulnerable population quarantined far longer since we are taking longer to develop herd immunity, we may be back to near normal in a month or two but the elderly and infirm will still be quarantined probably through next winter. They may have failed to protect their elderly but we're not doing any better here so lets call it a test and we'll check the final numbers when it's all over and maybe we can learn something that we can use in the future.
Makes sense.....
What kind of math are you using...fuzzy? Please show us how you get to such outlandish figures.
After reading the article, I am not sure what all there is to celebrate.
Sweden has a high death rate from the virus, including in nursing homes.
It is a country of only 10 million people (1/30th of the US population), so whatever they did or didnt do would occur at a faster rate than in the US.
The death rate from the virus in Sweden is 12.6% of the confirmed cases.
Yeah, I don't get it either.
These are the numbers I found online today in support of my seed. I fugure the data is useful for both seeds.
With Dean's approval...
Yes relatively low deaths in comparison to how far along they are in developing herd immunity. Here is another source reporting on their success.