Polls show Biden routing Trump. Here's how to read them. - POLITICO
Trump's chances are MELTING Melting melting...
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
2020 Elections
Polls show Biden routing Trump. Here's how to read them.
A survey from ABC News and the Washington Post is the latest high-quality poll to show Biden with a double-digit lead.
Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event on July 14. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo
President Donald Trump's bad poll numbers are getting worse.
The latest data point: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday shows Trump 15 points behind former Vice President Joe Biden among registered voters, 55 percent to 40 percent.
The margin is closer among likely voters, 54 percent for Biden and 44 percent for Trump, but whichever margin you look at, the surveyis the fifth consecutive high-quality national poll — those conducted by live phone interviewers — to show Biden ahead of Trump by 10 points or more. Of the nine such polls conducted since the second half of June, Biden has led Trump by double digits in seven of them.
The surveys conducted over the past month put Biden in an enviable, evenhistoric position. He has a greater advantage over the incumbent going into the final few months of the campaign than any challenger since Bill Clinton, who seized the lead in the summer of 1992 after third-party candidate Ross Perot dropped out.
Then there's the newABC News/Washington Post poll, which shows Trump's approval on the coronavirus declining from 45 percent among registered voters in late May to 38 percent in the latest poll.
In all three surveys, disapproval of Trump on the coronavirus — the dominant issue facing the country right now — is around 60 percent. Meanwhile, Trump's vote share in all three polls is hovering around only 40 percent.
Don't misread the enthusiasm gap
Call it Trump's Paradox: Even as Trump has fallen farther behind Biden, his supporters are more enthusiastic about his candidacy.
In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, an astounding 94 percent of Trump voters say they are enthusiastic about supporting him — significantly greater than the 79 percent of Biden voters who feel the same way about the presumptive Democratic nominee.
But don't confuse enthusiasm for a candidate for enthusiasm about voting. Other data suggests Biden's voters are as motivated as Trump's — they just aren't getting their motivation from their candidate.
In the Quinnipiac poll, 71 percent of Democratic voters said they are paying "a lot" of attention to the election — slightly more than the 67 percent of Republicans who said the same. In the NBC/WSJ survey, 80 percent of Democrats rated their level of interest in the election as a "9" or "10" on a 1-10 scale, more than the 74 percent of Republicans who gave the same ratings.
That interest may not translate into the kinds of off-the-charts, candidate-centric enthusiasm like the boat paradesthe Trump campaign cites as a sign its standing is better than the public polls suggest. But the enthusiasm working for Bidenappears to be just as real.
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Election handicappers have now reduced Trump's reelection chances from slim to none...
Don't ease off the gas..... I don't just want Trump beat, I want him humiliated when it comes to November. GET OUT THE VOTE!
Yep, we must vote Democratic and vote often!
From this point forward i see i'm going to be getting deja vu all over again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again to infinity and beyond.
Only until Biden's victory on November 3rd...
I can't find any polls showing Trump ahead!
Yep, just be careful with the feeling your oats so hard now. Lest the same result and let down occurs as Nov 2016.
The sky screaming, the wailing, the gnashing of teeth .... it was a pitiful display of dysfunction. Not sure some will survive another one .....
2020 will be a lot more like 2018 than 2016.
In 2016 Hillary only won the popular vote by 2%. In 2018 the Democrats won the popular vote by 8%. Joe Biden is leading in the polls by 15%. Can't you understand the differences?
Doubtful. 2018 was a typical result for a midterm. 2020 is not a midterm.
Find a different justification. That one is bullshit.
No shit, I didn't expect Trump to win in 2016 and I don't now.
But i'm sure that if Trump does win we will see the same snowflake reaction and the same simple minded people that don't understand presidential elections are not a popularity contest.
Biden is outpacing Clinton 2016 by a mile...
Except, those voters mostly died since 2016.
Wow thats awesome. I guess since Hillary was a shoe in to win we might as well not even have the election because Creepy Joe is polling so well hiding in his basement. We will just call him the winner because the polls say so.
Well they do have a lock on the pervert and pedophile vote running Biden.
Note how the Republicans are talking about a group of stealth Republicans hiding their intentions from the pollsters until election day? (First that would require intelligent design and organization.)
What if instead they are unenthusiastic and ashamed to call themselves Republicans any more and are moving themselves to the Independent category when the pollsters call.
That gives you an ever shrinking Republican party containing only the most enthusiastic.
The polls would show increasing Republican enthusiasm.
This could be confirmed by checking the trends of % declaring they are Republicans and those identifying as right leaning Independents.
Good liberal talking points.
Too bad most of them aren't true but by all means keep believing that they might be.
I enjoy watching opponents underestimate their adversary. It's delicious to watch.
Especially when they melt down like in 2016.
Yet, in the 2018 midterm election the gop suffered their worst popular vote loss in history...
It's a look ..... Squirrel ..... moment
Nothing to do with the 2020 election. Nothing at all.
He thinks overall votes for Congress is more important. He doesn't consider seats won or lost as a measurement of successful campaigns, just overall votes, in different states and different districts all tallied together.