New 2020 polls show Joe Biden continuing to run well ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace - CNNPolitics

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  3 weeks ago  •  16 comments

By:   CNN

New 2020 polls show Joe Biden continuing to run well ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace - CNNPolitics
Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 52% to President Donald Trump's 42%, across different turnout models.

Biden is greatly outpacing Trump and Hillary in 2016.


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 52% to President Donald Trump's 42%, across different turnout models.

Monmouth's poll looks a lot like a June New York Times/Siena College survey that put Biden ahead by 10 points. What's the point: There is no doubt that Biden is leading the race for president right now. He holds an edge nationally, as well as in the key swing states like Pennsylvania. In spite of all these numbers, people continuously point to 2016 in order to dismiss or at least put a big asterisk on Biden's advantage. Here's the thing: Biden is simply in a much better polling position than Hillary Clinton was at this time. There really is no comparison, except that both races had or have Trump as a candidate. Read More Four years ago, the polls being released at this juncture were conducted just before the Republican convention got under way. New polls show Joe Biden is winning suburbanites by a historic marginView 2020 presidential election polling As I've pointed out before, polls taken in early to mid July can be good estimates about where a race will end up. This period is usually before the major party conventions. Voters tend to have a pretty good idea of who the candidates are, and we don't have to worry about fleeting convention bounces showing up in the polls. The race in Pennsylvania was quite close in mid-July. Although Monmouth wasn't active in Pennsylvania in early July 2020, Marist College and Quinnipiac University were. The average of their polls put Clinton at 39% to Trump's 38%, which is where an average of all the polls put the contest. In other words, Clinton's edge was well within any margin of error. In fact, it was just two points different from the eventual election margin in Pennsylvania (Trump by a point). Biden's lead is outside the margin of error at this point. More than that, Clinton wasn't just under 50% in the polls, she was under 40%. Biden, on the other hand, is at 50% in the average poll in Pennsylvania and above that in the Monmouth poll. I've noted in the past that the 50% is a key marker because to win Pennsylvania at this point Trump would need to convince voters who are with Biden to switch to him. He can't just rely on luring over undecided voters. In 2016, that wasn't the case. Trump could get plurality support merely from convincing undecided and third party voters to go his way. Visit CNN's Election Center for full coverage of the 2020 race When you dig deeper, you really get an understanding of Biden's firmer footing. His favorable rating in the Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania was 45%. His very unfavorable rating (i.e. those who really don't like him) was 32%. The New York Times poll last month had Biden with a 50% favorable rating and just a 32% unfavorable rating. Clinton's favorable rating among Pennsylvania voters averaged 35% in early July 2016. Her very unfavorable rating in the Quinnipiac poll was as astoundingly high 54%. Voters really didn't like her. I've never seen any very unfavorable rating like that for Biden in any remotely competitive state. If the trends in the Pennsylvania polling between 2016 and 2020 were occurring in isolation, it would be one thing. They're reflective, though, of a nationwide trend. Biden is polling close to if not above 50% in live interview polls nationally. The ABC News/Washington Post, Fox News, NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University polls released this week have Biden near or above 50% and with a high single digit to double digit advantage. Like in Pennsylvania, Clinton's lead nationally didn't look like this at all. She was less than five points ahead of Trump, and she wasn't close to 50%. Moreover, Biden's net favorability (favorable - unfavorable) rating nationally is averaging at about +3 points in live interviewer polls at this point. Clinton's net favorability rating was averaging around -18 points in mid-July 2016. Now, none of this guarantees Biden will end up doing better than Clinton. Maybe, Trump will pull another rabbit out of his hat. But if 2020 is going to end up with a similar outcome to 2016, Trump is going to have to close the gap much more so than he did in 2016.


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JBB
1  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Compared with Clinton 2016 Biden is way way ahead!

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
1.1  FLYNAVY1  replied to  JBB @1    3 weeks ago

Don't get complacent!  Check your registration NOW.  Turn out the vote to send Trump packing in a landslide come November.  

 
 
 
Greg Jones
1.2  Greg Jones  replied to  JBB @1    3 weeks ago

Once again...please give us five (5) good reasons any rational person would vote for Biden, knowing as we do the radical agenda of the left, and some of its bad actors like AOC and Pelosi?

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
1.2.1  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Greg Jones @1.2    3 weeks ago
Once again...please give us five (5) good reasons any rational person would vote for Biden

It's been done for you dozens of times.  Why should we waste any more effort on those that refuse facts and data.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
1.2.2  Greg Jones  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1.2.1    3 weeks ago

So once again you are not able to give any rational, reasonable, and substantial reasons to vote for Biden....

because there aren't any...other than he isn't Trump

That's not how you change hearts and minds and get all those young people to register and vote.

 
 
 
Tessylo
1.2.3  Tessylo  replied to  Greg Jones @1.2.2    3 weeks ago

Millions of those young people have registered and will be voting for BIDEN.  

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
1.2.4  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Greg Jones @1.2.2    3 weeks ago

Please refer your circular argument to 1.2.1..... Repeat as often as you like Greg.

How about this Greg.... Lets see if you have any spine to take a bet.

If Trump wins in November..... I'll depart Newstalkers for an entire year.... no rereg no nothing.

If Biden wins, you depart Newstalkers for an entire year...... same rules for rereg.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
1.2.5  FLYNAVY1  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1.2.4    3 weeks ago

[deleted]

Offered a couple of Trump Fluffers the same deal last week.... no answer of course.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
1.2.6  FLYNAVY1  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1.2.5    3 weeks ago

Invertebrate is Taunting?  At least it's a four syllable word..... Should get credit for that...  

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
1.2.7  Trout Giggles  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1.2.6    3 weeks ago

I'll get a ticket for laughing...but next time just use the 3 syllable word. The ones you're talking about don't even know what an invertebrate means.

 
 
 
Split Personality
1.2.8  Split Personality  replied to  Trout Giggles @1.2.7    3 weeks ago

Isn't spineless only two syllables?

Just asking for a friend.

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
1.2.9  Trout Giggles  replied to  Split Personality @1.2.8    3 weeks ago

But....it would be taunting and we're having a little problem with hurt feelings today

 
 
 
Adam_Selene
1.2.10  Adam_Selene  replied to  Split Personality @1.2.8    3 weeks ago
Isn't spineless only two syllables?

No-  it's just like the word sinned "See-Yunh-Dahhh".

Three syllables.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
1.2.11  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Adam_Selene @1.2.10    3 weeks ago

No wonder I have such a hard time interpreting "redneck".

I also noticed that the Trump Fluffers are still 0-3 on taking me up on the election bet.  Looks like their confidence is pretty superficial these days.  (damn.... superficial is four syllables too.)  

 
 
 
Adam_Selene
1.2.12  Adam_Selene  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1.2.11    3 weeks ago

I have a little side bet going that they quietly take away the " football " before November.

(Oh, we have some sweet innocent types at NT that don't know what a "fluffer" is. Best not to tell them.)

 
 
 
Nerm_L
2  Nerm_L    3 weeks ago

Wow, even Joe Biden can beat Hillary Clinton.  Maybe Hillary should have stayed in her basement, too.

 
 
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