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New research puts the 'good guy with a gun' idea to rest: Loose concealed-carry laws are linked to more firearm homicides

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  4 years ago  •  75 comments

New research puts the 'good guy with a gun' idea to rest: Loose concealed-carry laws are linked to more firearm homicides
States with looser concealed-carry laws have higher rates of gun homicide. And higher gun-ownership rates are associated with more mass shootings.

Here in reality more guns equals more homicides!


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Susie Neilson Jul 26, 2020, 20:32 IST Business Insider Nortasha Stingiey (second from left) holds hands in a group prayer as part of "Purpose over Pain," a group of mothers who lost children to gun violence, in Chicago, Illinois, May 6, 2016.REUTERS/Jim Young

  • A new study found that states with looser concealed-carry gun laws have higher rates of gun homicide.
  • The results also showed that higher levels of gun ownership are associated with more mass shootings.
  • The study suggests the US could reduce gun violence by lowering levels of gun ownership and passing stricter concealed-carry laws.

The "good guy with a gun" theory goes like this: If more well-intentioned people carry guns, there's a higher chance of stopping a violent shooter.

Unfortunately, that's not how it works in real life, according to new research published in the journal Justice Quarterly. The study found that laws allowing more people to carry guns in public are associated with a rise in gun violence. The results also showed that the higher a state's gun-ownership rate, the more likely a mass shooting is.

Emma Fridel, an assistant professor at Florida State University who authored the study, measured the affects of gun ownership rates and concealed-carry laws in all 50 states from 1991 to 2016. She controlled for other factors that might influence mass shooting and homicide rates, like unemployment rates, poverty levels and states' mental health expenditures.

Her findings show that looser concealed-carry laws had little impact on mass shootings and increased a state's gun homicide rate by 11%. Higher rates of firearm ownership overall, meanwhile, was associated with a 53.5% increase in the likelihood of a mass shooting.

"In popular culture, you hear people saying, 'Oh, if I had a gun and I was at that Wal-Mart, I could've stopped that shooting,'" Fridel told Business Insider "But that's probably not true."

Concealed-carry laws have become more prevalent


In 2015, 56% of Americans said they believed that increased gun-carrying in public — if carriers passed criminal background checks and training courses — would make the country safer.

Changing state laws have reflected that belief: While just 15 states had permissive concealed-carry policies in the early 1990s, 41 states had implemented them as of 2018. For instance, Ohio passed a law in 2017 allowing people with concealed-carry permits to bring firearms into daycare centers and company parking lots.

Meanwhile, mass shootings and firearm deaths have increased, particularly in the last decade. The US saw 418 mass shootings and 15,395 deaths due to gun violence in 2019 (not counting suicides), compared to 269 mass shootings and 12,390 deaths in 2014.

Students rally in front of the White House in Washington, DC, March 14, 2018.Associated Press/Carolyn Kaster

Fridel's research showed that conceal-carry laws are a stronger predictor of firearm homicides than gun ownership.

"Concealed-carry laws are such a strong effect that it drowns the firearm ownership rate out," she said. It was only when she eliminated concealed-carry legislation as a factor in the analysis that she also found a positive correlation between general gun ownership and gun homicides.

Mass shootings 'disproportionately' drive gun laws


Even though mass-shooting deaths represented just a tiny fraction of total firearm deaths in 2019 (465 out of the 39,485, according to the Gun Violence Archive), the horror of mass shootings means these events have "disproportionately influenced the public discourse on firearms ownership and legislation," according to Fridel.

A 2019 study found that each mass-shooting incident increased the total number of firearm-related bills introduced in a given state by 15%.

Fridel's study suggests a "two-pronged approach" for combating gun violence in the US overall, mass shooting or otherwise. The first solution is to reduce gun ownership, potentially via universal background checks and increased requirements for permits. The second is simply to make concealed-carry permits more difficult to get.


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JBB
Professor Principal
1  seeder  JBB    4 years ago

Concealed carry laws resulted in more homicides!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JBB @1    4 years ago

Who didn't see that happening?

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.1.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.1    4 years ago

Gun humpers and men with micro penises! 

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.1.3  seeder  JBB  replied to  XDm9mm @1.1.2    4 years ago

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.4  Tessylo  replied to  JBB @1.1.3    4 years ago

You must have really struck a nerve there JBB!  OUCH!

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.1.5  devangelical  replied to  Tessylo @1.1.4    4 years ago

...in the groin area, obviously.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.6  Tessylo  replied to  devangelical @1.1.5    4 years ago

jrSmiley_86_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
1.1.7  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Tessylo @1.1.6    4 years ago

I see your jrSmiley_86_smiley_image.gif and raise you a jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif .

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
1.2  Greg Jones  replied to  JBB @1    4 years ago

Your logic doesn't make sense. Most people with a CC permit are very responsible and stable people. Stories like the one below rarely get published.

But thanks to the spineless liberal politicians who stifle the efforts of their cops to combat crime, gun ownership and possession is skyrocketing as people seek to protect themselves and their families, since thuggish domestic terrorists have been allowed to run wild in many major American cities.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.2.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Greg Jones @1.2    4 years ago

Take it up with Business Insider. It is their data!

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.2.3  seeder  JBB  replied to  XDm9mm @1.2.2    4 years ago

The same Business Insider story everywhere!

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.2.4  devangelical  replied to  Greg Jones @1.2    4 years ago

I dropped my permit 3.5 years ago because I know how fascists think. I still carry though, and they're the reason why.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
1.2.5  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  devangelical @1.2.4    4 years ago

Can't you get in trouble by carrying without the permit?

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
1.2.6  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.2.5    4 years ago
Can't you get in trouble by carrying without the permit?

That entirely depends on the state .

 My state, Wyoming, has both open and concealed carry , no permit required , also called constitutional carry.

 The state does offer a concealed permit for those that wish to pay the $75  and go out of state to states that recognize the permit in their states .

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
1.2.7  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @1.2.6    4 years ago

Thank you for the info.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
1.2.8  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.2.7    4 years ago

And because of where I personally live , I formulated a certain set of rules that I personally have to follow above and beyond what any of the laws would say I can do.

 In otherwords I make sure my ducks are in line and not wandering off and there would be no questions if I am carrying and would have to use it.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.2.9  devangelical  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.2.5    4 years ago

depends on the state

 
 
 
Tacos!
Professor Guide
1.3  Tacos!  replied to  JBB @1    4 years ago
Concealed carry laws resulted in more homicides!

Where is the cause and effect relationship that demonstrates this?

 
 
 
Tacos!
Professor Guide
3  Tacos!    4 years ago

It's all just loose correlation. No causation.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Tacos! @3    4 years ago

Except, if open carry really did reduce homicides they would decrease butt with the proliferation of open carry laws they have actually increased...

The Good Guy With A Gun Theory has proven false. That is the point! More people being armed has actually resulted in an increase in homicides. This is a proven fact. There is no evidence to the CSO the obvious conclusion must be drawn. Open Carry Laws have made life more, not less, dangerous!

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Quiet
3.1.1  Dean Moriarty  replied to  JBB @3.1    4 years ago

Yes it shows the system works more good guys with a gun more justifiable homicides. 

justifiable homicide

Definition from Nolo’s Plain-English Law Dictionary

A killing without evil or criminal intent, for which there is no blame. For example, an accidental shooting, a killing in the course of self-defense, or a death that results from the necessary actions of a police officer would all be justifiable homicides. Justifiable deaths are not the same as a crime of passion or a claim of diminished capacity, which refer to defenses aimed at reducing the penalty or degree of crime.
 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.1.2  seeder  JBB  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.1    4 years ago

Do you have any real evidence at all that there is has been any marked increase in justified homicides linked to more open carry laws?

The evidence is they increased homicides!

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
3.1.3  Tessylo  replied to  JBB @3.1.2    4 years ago

No, all they have is . . . well nothing, obviously, except to quote a 'dictionary'.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Quiet
3.1.4  Dean Moriarty  replied to  JBB @3.1.2    4 years ago

Yes that was a problem I saw with the study. It doesn’t differentiate and lumps the justifiable homicides in with the rest.

 
 
 
Tacos!
Professor Guide
3.1.5  Tacos!  replied to  JBB @3.1    4 years ago
Except, if open carry really did reduce homicides they would decrease butt with the proliferation of open carry laws they have actually increased...

Murder has causes beyond the mere presence of a gun. The guns don't jump up and kill people on their own. People have reasons for why they kill. If those reasons are more prevalent, we can expect the murder rate to go up.

Guns do stop crime of all kinds, but it's hard to document a thing that was prevented, so the numbers are estimates. In 2014, the CDC issued this report , wherein they acknowledged that guns prevent crime. Note that they estimate this happens 3 million times a year.

Defensive Use of Guns Defensive use of guns by crime victims is a common occurrence, although the exact number remains disputed (Cook and Ludwig, 1996; Kleck, 2001a). Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million (Kleck, 2001a), in the context of about 300,000 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008 (BJS, 2010). On the other hand, some scholars point to a radically lower estimate of only 108,000 annual defensive uses based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (Cook et al., 1997). The variation in these numbers remains a controversy in the field. The estimate of 3 million defensive uses per year i s based on an extrapolation from a small number of responses taken from more than 19 national surveys. The former estimate of 108,000 is difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.

More than 40% of American homes have a gun - almost 400 million guns in total - and almost all of them are never used them to commit crime of any kind, much less murder.

The real trick is the "good guy" part of the "good guy with a gun." Studies show that who has a gun is probably more important in reducing crime than just the number or type of guns on its own.

The FBI and CDC Datasets Agree:   Who   Has Guns—Not   Which   Guns—Linked to Murder Rates

Still, much of this is correlational. What we need to show causation is a murderer with a gun who acquired it legally, but could not have acquired it under a different set of laws. If we took that approach, we could reduce crime while still respecting the rights of individuals to protect themselves.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.1.6  seeder  JBB  replied to  Tacos! @3.1.5    4 years ago

Yet Americans suffer many times the number of mass murders as compared with other modern nations that exercise sensible gun regulation. Correlate That!

 
 
 
Drakkonis
Professor Guide
3.1.7  Drakkonis  replied to  JBB @3.1.6    4 years ago

Why bother? There's nothing that would change your mind on this subject. 

 
 
 
Tacos!
Professor Guide
3.1.8  Tacos!  replied to  JBB @3.1.6    4 years ago
Yet Americans suffer many times the number of mass murders

Because we're Americans. Why do we have way more coronavirus than everyone else?

 
 
 
Ronin2
Professor Quiet
3.1.9  Ronin2  replied to  Tacos! @3.1.8    4 years ago

Now they will bash Trump ad infinitum. You have to know that is coming. Not that any Democrat anywhere has a plan on how to combat Covid 19 that has worked.

 
 
 
Drakkonis
Professor Guide
3.1.10  Drakkonis  replied to  Ronin2 @3.1.9    4 years ago
Now they will bash Trump ad infinitum. You have to know that is coming. Not that any Democrat anywhere has a plan on how to combat Covid 19 that has worked.

Depends on how you define "that has worked."  Defeating Covid 19 isn't their plan, in my opinion. Using it to move us closer to their socialist agenda is their goal. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
3.1.11  Greg Jones  replied to  JBB @3.1    4 years ago
The Good Guy With A Gun Theory has proven false

No it hasn't. There is direct and reliable link to prove your point. One biased study doesn't cut it.

More total guns out there can potentially lead to more gun crimes. But not necessarily because of concealed carry.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
3.1.12  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.4    4 years ago
It doesn’t differentiate and lumps the justifiable homicides in with the rest.

Just like it likely includes suicides as well.

 take out suicide by gun and any and all legal and lawful use of firearms and their number go way down  and don't even make the top 20 causes of death for the most part.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.1.13  seeder  JBB  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @3.1.12    4 years ago

Easy access to guns by clinically depressed Americans is a major facilitator of suicides...

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
3.1.14  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  JBB @3.1.13    4 years ago

The real question is , should suicide by firearm be even counted? 

 and that's not even delving into suicide or the issues of it  at all .

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
3.1.15  Sparty On  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @3.1.14    4 years ago
The real question is , should suicide by firearm be even counted?

Nope but it helps with the anti gun narrative so it will continue to be included by the anti gun crowd.

Their premise that committing suicide with a gun is easier is ridiculous.   It isn't.   Not when for example one can simply take a handful of pills washed down with a bottle of Jamison perhaps.

Nothing easier than that.  Putting a gun to your head and pulling the trigger certainly takes more courage or craziness than simply swallowing a few pills.

Suicide is a non starter in the gun control debate but the snowflakes will continue to melt about it.   It's what they do.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
3.1.16  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Drakkonis @3.1.10    4 years ago
Using it to move us closer to their socialist agenda is their goal. 

there is a kernel of truth to that statement .

I tend to look at those that wish to disarm people have a tendency or desire to do something that under the current situation would most likely get them shot .

 
 
 
MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka)
Junior Guide
3.1.17  MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka)  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @3.1.12    4 years ago

The data I looked up specifically separated suicides, homicide, and accidental death due to firearm. It's out there, you just have to look. And yes, suicides are the highest number and has risen a lot over the past 5-10 years. Ironically enough... despite the claim that it's easier to commit suicide by pistol, the handful of suicides in my daughter's high school were hangings or pills.

Death from heroin and opiate overdoses exceed suicide by far though.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
3.1.18  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka) @3.1.17    4 years ago

Did what you looked up also break down the homicides into justifiable and unjustifiable?

reason I ask is justifiable homicide , could be anything from a LEO using  their weapon , to a individual citizen  using one in self defense  the last step one would have left open to them.

Unjustifiable homicide would be those incidents such as gang , drug or any other type of violence one could be  legally charged with .

One category would need to be counted and the other not , but until the individual circumstances are evaluated , one would not know which category to place the incident .

Issue is getting all side to agree what gets counted and what doesn't .

 
 
 
MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka)
Junior Guide
3.1.19  MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka)  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @3.1.18    4 years ago

I couldn't find any source that separated homicides into justifiable or unjustifiable.

Agreed that it SHOULD be separated, but they're not.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
3.1.20  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka) @3.1.19    4 years ago

Found one a few years ago that did , it ended up instead of 33000 gun deaths was winnowed down after accounting for suicides , leo shootings and justified self defense , that the unjustified criminal homicides were only about 3000. nation wide.

 one has to look at how they word their category descriptors  on the separate number and can usually deduce which were and were not justified .

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
4  Nerm_L    4 years ago

These calls for gun controls are a backhanded way to disarm the Black population.  Gun crime is prevalent within the Black population but confronting that crime doesn't fit the political narrative of racism.  Political expediency requires claiming that 'white supremacy' is the threat while ignoring where gun crimes are actually occurring.  But the unspoken political goal for gun control is to disarm the Black population because that's where guns are the biggest problem.

The ends justify the means.  

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
4.1  Tessylo  replied to  Nerm_L @4    4 years ago

I hear some dog whistles there . . . . 

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
4.1.1  Nerm_L  replied to  Tessylo @4.1    4 years ago
I hear some dog whistles there . . . . 

Do you deny the prevalence of gun crime within the Black population?  Now we are beginning to see a surge in gun crime within the Hispanic population, too.

The overwhelming majority of gun crimes are perpetrated with hand guns.  Long guns are a weapon of choice for terrorist activities but hand guns are the weapon of choice for criminal activities.  Controls on long guns will do very little to reduce gun crime.  Politicians promising bans on 'assault rifles' are deliberately diverting attention away from gun crime to avoid allegations of racism.

But the objective of political efforts to curb gun ownership is to disarm the Black population while avoiding allegations of racism.  Politicians pointing fingers at 'white supremacists' is the dog whistle being used to justify gun control.  But 'white supremacists' aren't the source of gun crime.  Gun crime is far more prevalent in urban Black communities.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
4.1.2  bugsy  replied to  Tessylo @4.1    4 years ago
I hear some dog whistles there . . . . 

Only liberals do...

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
4.1.3  Tessylo  replied to  Nerm_L @4.1.1    4 years ago

Again, I know what this is about, black protesters being armed and what do you know, a black armed protester got killed just the other day.  

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
4.2  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Nerm_L @4    4 years ago
These calls for gun controls are a backhanded way to disarm the Black population. 

I have thought that since I started looking into the GCA of 68 back when I was younger . and i look very suspiciously at anything and how it could be applied since that fact was pointed out to me.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
5  Tessylo    4 years ago

I know what this is all about.  The black protesters protesting armed.

Yet you have no problem with white protesters being armed.  

 
 

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