Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  vic-eldred  •  6 days ago  •  29 comments

By:   Rasmussen-Poll

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows...

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump's job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 39% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -4. (see trends)

Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily email update).

Now that Gallup has quit the field, Rasmussen Reports is the only nationally recognized public opinion firm that still tracks President Trump's job approval ratings on a daily basis. If your organization is interested in a weekly or longer sponsorship of Rasmussen Reports' Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, please send e-mail to beth@rasmussenreports.com .

Total Approval1,500 likely voters +/- 3%


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Total Approve (Trump)

Total Approval1,500 likely voters +/- 3%


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   Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often don't show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask.

To get a sense of longer-term job approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.


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Vic Eldred
1  seeder  Vic Eldred    6 days ago

The latest approval numbers are in!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Vic Eldred @1    6 days ago

Are the numbers written with a black sharpie?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
1.1.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.1    6 days ago

Perhaps with a little dose of reality.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2  JohnRussell    6 days ago

You finally found ONE. Ever heard of outliers? 

 
 
 
MAGA
2.1  MAGA  replied to  JohnRussell @2    6 days ago

This has been consistent the last several weeks and is the only daily tracking poll out there.  

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
2.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @2    6 days ago

LMAO!

 
 
 
JBB
3  JBB    6 days ago

I wonder why Rasmussen is such an outliner poll?

They must only call land lines going to nut farms...

 
 
 
MAGA
3.1  MAGA  replied to  JBB @3    6 days ago

And yet they are consistently one of the most accurate come Election Day.  

 
 
 
JBB
3.1.1  JBB  replied to  MAGA @3.1    6 days ago

When?

 
 
 
devangelical
3.1.2  devangelical  replied to  JBB @3.1.1    6 days ago

"Romney in a Landslide"

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
3.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  JBB @3    6 days ago

They were one of the closest in 2016. 

 
 
 
JBB
3.2.1  JBB  replied to  Vic Eldred @3.2    6 days ago

Did they showed Clinton winning by 3%? 

If you believe polls let's look at averages!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
3.2.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  JBB @3.2.1    6 days ago

What was the range for Hillary Clinton - from when they started taking the Polls?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
3.2.3  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Vic Eldred @3.2.2    6 days ago

I guess, I'll have to do the honors:

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AIA2020061601-table1.png

Conclusions

Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the large majority of national polls in 2016. However, the magnitude of that lead varied considerably over time. This variability may reflect that fact that in an open seat contest like 2016, the choices of voters can be influenced more by the candidates’ campaigns and the changing news background. In contrast, Joseph Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has been far more consistent in 2020. This consistency may reflect the fact that Donald Trump is now running as an incumbent with a proven track record. When an incumbent like Trump is running for reelection, the election is mainly a referendum on the incumbent’s performance. The candidates’ campaigns and the developments in the news are probably less important.

Voters’ opinions of Donald Trump’s performance have been extraordinarily stable throughout his presidency with negative evaluations generally outweighing positive evaluations. That is the main reason why Trump has consistently trailed his Democratic challenger in the polls. The fact that the ratio of negative to positive evaluations of Trump’s performance has increased in the past few weeks probably also explains why Biden has been enjoying his largest margins in national polls at any time in 2020.

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/comparing-national-polls-in-2016-and-2020/



"The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump."

How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?

One likely culprit is what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias. This occurs when certain kinds of people systematically do not respond to surveys despite equal opportunity outreach to all parts of the electorate.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

 
 
 
Tessylo
6  Tessylo    6 days ago

I await certain posters disputing my source.  .   .  

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
6.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Tessylo @6    6 days ago

You are on the very seed which disputes it. The latest poll has different numbers!

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.1.1  Tessylo  replied to  Vic Eldred @6.1    6 days ago

Mine is the latest poll!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
6.1.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Tessylo @6.1.1    6 days ago

How would it be more recent that the Rasmussen Poll?

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
6.1.3  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Vic Eldred @6.1.2    6 days ago

The published date of any poll should prove which is the most current, shouldn't it?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
6.1.4  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @6.1.3    6 days ago

Both are today's date, right?

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
6.1.5  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Vic Eldred @6.1.4    6 days ago

Today is my bd and I am a little toasted.  Y'all lucky if I can type a coherent sentence much less read an entire seed.jrSmiley_96_smiley_image.pngjrSmiley_24_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_36_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
1stwarrior
6.1.6  1stwarrior  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @6.1.5    6 days ago

Happy, happy BD Paula - Manhattans and Gimlets always make the days go by so smooth.jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
6.1.7  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @6.1.5    6 days ago

Happy Birthday. What are we drinking?

 
 
 
Kathleen
7  Kathleen    6 days ago

I bet Biden’s teeth glow in the dark.  

 
 
 
loki12
7.1  loki12  replied to  Kathleen @7    6 days ago

I bet Jill makes his nurse change his diaper.

 
 
 
Adam_Selene
8  Adam_Selene    6 days ago

Just an interesting (to me) point on all presidential approval tracking polls. I've found them to cycle up and down - some times seasonally sometimes just every few months.

Don't know why.

In the case of Trump it appears to be every 2 or 3 months he will get a break and have an approval rating (from Rasmussen) of 50. He's never managed to get above that.

The average total approval from January is about 47% with average total disapproval of about 52%.

His average Strongly Approve  since January is about 34% with his Strongly Disapprove at 43%.  His Strongly Approve never breaks 40%

I have found Rasmussen to be consistent in their polling process over the years  so I usually check them first.

I also find them to have about a 2 to 3 point bias towards Republican candidates in their polling.

Nothing underhanded - just they have a rosier view of Republican voting turn out over the Democrats.

All of the above is the good news.

So while, as the seed states, 50% of Rasmussen's likely voters approve of Trumps' job performance  in another poll  Rasmussen finds that likely voters prefer Biden for president over Trump  by 48% to 42%.

 
 
 
Adam_Selene
8.1  Adam_Selene  replied to  Adam_Selene @8    6 days ago
He's never managed to get above that.

Since January 2020.

Data under discussion is from January 3,2020 to the present.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
8.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Adam_Selene @8    6 days ago

You may have touched on something - they poll likely voters, while others don't

 
 
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