Trump's base starting to erode, new poll shows - Los Angeles Times
Category: News & Politics
Via: jbb • 4 years ago • 37 commentsBy: David Lauter Washington Bureau (Los Angeles Times)
It's about time some people came to their senses...
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
President Trump's support among Republicans and other conservative voters has begun to erode amid the continued coronavirus pandemic and its associated economic havoc, a new poll from UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies shows.
The poll shows Trump far behind Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in California. That's no surprise — even at his strongest Trump was unlikely ever to be competitive in California, a heavily Democratic state.
What is notable, however, is the size of the gap and the degree to which approval of Trump's work as president has declined among groups that until now have supported him.
Biden leads Trump in California by 39 percentage points, 67% to 28%, the poll found. That's 9 points larger than the margin by which Hillary Clinton beat Trump statewide in 2016 — a record at the time. And the share of Californians who approve of Trump's performance in office, which has held steady in the mid-to-low 30% range for nearly his entire tenure, has now ticked downward to just 29%.
That's consistent with other polls nationally and in battleground states that show a nationwide tide lifting Biden, swelling his margin in states like California, moving him solidly ahead in close-fought states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and making him potentially competitive in states that Trump won more handily last time, such as Texas and Georgia.
"There was a question of whether his support was already so low in the state that it couldn't go lower," said Berkeley political scientist Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies. The poll "shows the answer is no."
Aides to both candidates believe the biggest factor in Trump's decline is voters' fear of the coronavirus and belief that the administration has botched its handling of the pandemic. The poll provides further evidence of that.
About two-thirds of the state's voters see the health threat from the coronavirus getting worse. They back Biden 84% to 11%. By contrast, about 1 in 8 say the health threat is getting less serious; they back Trump 87% to 10%. About 1 in 5 voters say the threat from the virus is about the same as it's been; they're closely divided.
The poll also found California Democrats reacting favorably to the possibility of Biden choosing either of two state officeholders on his short list of potential running mates.
Sen. Kamala Harris is better known statewide than Rep. Karen Bass of Los Angeles, but Democratic voters expressed support for Biden picking either of them. For Harris, Democratic voters approved 68% to 20% with 12% expressing no opinion; in Bass' case, support was 46% to 10% with 44% expressing no opinion.
Democratic voters in Los Angeles County were more likely than those elsewhere in the state to have an opinion of Bass, who represents parts of the Westside and Central Los Angeles in Congress. They favored her selection 56% to 11%. Opinions of Harris, who lives in Los Angeles but spent most of her career in the Bay Area, were roughly the same in Los Angeles as statewide.
For Harris, the support marked a notable comeback. In December, a Berkeley IGS poll conducted for the Los Angeles Times showed that by 61% to 24%, likely Democratic primary voters in California thought she should quit the presidential race. She did so just before the poll was published.
Opinions of Trump, by contrast, have gotten worse since the winter. A Berkeley IGS poll in January showed 33% of the state's voters approved of the way he is handling his job as president. In the most recent poll, that's dropped to 29%, with 71% disapproving, including 63% who say they "strongly" disapprove.
Since the vast majority of Democrats already disapproved of Trump, the drop in approval comes mostly among Republicans and nonpartisan voters. Among voters who identified themselves as moderate conservatives, for example, approval dropped 11 points, from 76% in January to 65% now.
Erosion of Trump's support among moderate conservatives is another trend seen nationwide in recent surveys.
In California, the decline shows up in the more conservative regions of the state. In the Inland Empire, approval of Trump dropped 8 points, from 43% in January to 35% in the current poll. In the Central Valley, it dropped 7 points, from 44% in January to 37% now.
"There's evidence nationally of a decline for Trump in more rural areas where the coronavirus has spread," Schickler said. The poll seems to be "showing a similar thing here."
Overall, 70% of the state's voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, 28% see him favorably. By contrast, 56% of the state's voters have a favorable view of Biden, compared with 40% who have an unfavorable view. In Los Angeles, 24% have a favorable view of Trump, and 60% have a favorable view of Biden.
About 15% of voters have an unfavorable view of both candidates. That group supports Biden by 5 to 1. That's a big shift from 2016, when voters nationwide who disliked both candidates broke heavily in Trump's favor.
Biden has a huge lead in the state not only because Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans in California, but also because the former vice president has a big lead among non-partisan voters and has made inroads among traditionally Republican groups while Trump has almost no traction among traditionally Democratic groups.
For example, Biden gets about one-quarter of California voters who call themselves "somewhat conservative" — about 1 in 6 California voters. By contrast, Trump gets almost no support among voters who call themselves "somewhat liberal," who make up about 1 in 5 of the state's voters.
The state's nonpartisan voters back Biden by about 4 to 1, the poll found.
Biden gets backing from white voters, 66% to 31%; from Blacks, 87% to 7%; from Asian and Pacific Islanders, 72% to 21%; and from Latinos, 63% to 30%, the poll found.
About 15% of Latinos who primarily speak Spanish remain undecided, the poll found. That's consistent with past elections in which Spanish-dominant Latinos, many of whom are relatively new citizens, have tended to tune in to the election later than many other voters. The group tends to be heavily Democratic, suggesting that Biden's support from them is likely to grow as the election nears.
In liberal California, even white men without college educations — Trump's strong point nationwide — back Biden. The former vice president leads among that group 54% to 42%, the poll found. That pales compared to Biden's support among college-educated women, however. They back him 79% to 17%.
Evangelical Christians, who are among Trump's most steadfast backers nationwide, form one of the few major demographic groups in the state that gives majority support to the president. California voters who say they are evangelicals back Trump 56% to 39%, the poll found.
Trump, who has pitched multiple campaign appeals to racial prejudice, also gets strong support from the roughly 30% of the state's voters who disapprove of the Black Lives Matter movement. Those who disapprove of the movement back Trump over Biden 83% to 11%, the poll found. The much larger group that approves of the movement backs Biden 93% to 3%.
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Even Orange County is done with DonaldTrump...
I really don't think it makes any difference Trump was never going to win California.
Trump could lose Californication’s vote by 10,000,000 and still win the electoral college.
Lol ..... oh well, might as well hand over the keys to the country to hidin Biden and his merry band of crazy progressives and anarchists ..... /S
tRumps' base is dwindling daily.
I stand by my 80% disapprove of tRump.
But, but, but.....................
It's not based on a poll.
LOL just what is it based on? Feeeeelings?
The turd tRump's base/support is dwindling daily.
Trumps support in inland rural California is as strong as it’s ever been.
We might have a glitch in the system if fetch retrieved that photo.
Interesting it seems to be happening only with the same person don't you think?
I believe the poster is able to provide whatever photo he wants. No glitch.
Nope, picture is supposed to match the one used in the article referenced.
Nothing new to see here ....
It does match to what tRump is doing. If there was a problem with it, I'm sure you went running to the moderators, and they would have taken it down, if so.
Guess again .... that's your modus operandi not mine ..... so off you go now ...
Though sometimes when articles have more than one photo to choose from and the seeder uses one, or the article only has one and someone else comes along and imposes a different one upon the seeder.
Well said and exactly right on.
This is the article photo:
Well it didn’t post above...
Trump's base is shrinking so drastically that soon it's going to match the size of his tiny... hands...
This is going to be doubly fun watching the TDS afflicted really implode this time when Trump wins.
I worry that some of you won't survive it.
Better stock up on your Xanax and blood pressure meds people
I can’t wait to watch them crying on tv again!
Trump Delusion Syndrome is no laughing matter.
I'm worried about how the Trump cultists are going to survive when Trump whines like a stuck pig in November.
Better stock up on your hydroxychloroquine and bleach people.
Poor things, can't even come up with their own original acronym.
The lack of creativity is pretty sad considering how highly educated they say they are ............ guess their public school education has let them down.
If you had any historical awareness, you would know that the concept began and was first used during Obama's Presidency as ODS, Obama Derangement Syndrome, which most reactionaries were, and continue to be, afflicted with.
Try something original sometime.
Trump does attract the poorly educated. The poor, sad things...
If you had any historical awareness, you would know the concept began and was first used during the George W. Bush’s presidency, as BDS.
Try something original some time.
trump haters are often poorly educated. The poor, sad things.
The phrase was coined by Charles krauthammer in 2003 to describe “the ONset of acute paranoia in otherwise normal people to the policies, the presidency, nay the very existence of George W Bush”
Exactly as it came out of the contested election and the problems in Florida that the democrats then never got over. They lost in 2004 in a hate filled campaign and their hate that exists now will lead to a similar result
The hysteria over Bush just shows how the rage and insanity has nothing to do with Trump. They would have been just as deranged if Romney or McCain had won.
Remember, that racial bomb thrower John Lewis claimed John McCain was worse than the Birmingham Church Bombers. They've been certifiable the entire century.
Pretty much...
I think someone is very upset again ..... poor thing
Education doesn't imply intelligence. If it did, the Dems would have an electable candidate
He’s awesome, a great American and a great President
And in a recent poll by CNN:
lol .... spot on
His most recent call in interview on Fox indicates he is shifting the narrative going even more negative and saying he doesn't care if his comments cause him to lose the election that he just doesn't care. So look for even more negativity, look for even more bullying and watch as he pivots to create himself as a victim of his own vitriol that his supporters will buy into. He never really wanted the job,he isn't up to the job and has proven by golfing hundreds of hours and literally hundreds of times that he does not care at all about his supporters, he just wants their blind loyalty as he exits to whatever he plans next. Probably buying out OAN as a propaganda machine going forward.