Covid-19 is now the No. 3 cause of death in the US. But testing to find and isolate cases has dropped off
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Covid-19 is now the No. 3 cause of death in the US. But testing to find and isolate cases has dropped off
A virus that didn't even exist a year ago is now killing more Americans than Alzheimer's disease, accidents and diabetes.
The novel coronavirus has infected more than 5.4 million Americans and killed more than 170,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University
Over the past three weeks, the US has averaged more than 1,000 Covid-19 deaths per day.
"Covid is now the No. 3 cause of death in the US -- ahead of accidents, injuries, lung disease, diabetes, Alzheimer's, and many, many other causes," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Heart disease and cancer are the leading causes of death in the US, according to the CDC.
The rate of deaths from Covid-19 is also much greater in the US than in many other countries, Frieden said.
"Last week, Americans were eight times more likely to get killed by Covid than were Europeans," he said.
Less testing = more infected people walking around
Just as more students head back to school, health experts are worried about a disturbing trend: decreasing testing combined with high test positivity rates.
In other words, Covid-19 is still spreading rampantly, but there's less testing to find and isolate cases.
The number of tests performed each day in the US dropped by an average of 68,000 compared to the daily rate in late July, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project.
Fifteen states conducted fewer tests this past week compared to the previous week: Mississippi, Louisiana, North Carolina, Washington state, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Montana and Alaska.
Yet test positivity rates -- the percentage of tests that are positive -- are still higher than the recommended 5% in more than 30 states, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
"The testing situation is not good in the United States. What we're not picking up is people who are contagious," said Dr. William Haseltine, chairman and president of ACCESS Health International.
"We're probably missing 8 out of 10 people who are contagious. And any decrease in testing is worrisome because we're not already doing well. And if you don't pick people out of a crowd who are contagious, then the epidemic spreads. ... This epidemic is still spreading widely."
Why are some states testing less?
Medical experts say there could be several reasons.
"One of the reasons that testing is decreasing is that supplies aren't being shipped to places that can test. I think it's part of a strategy not to count how many people are infected," Haseltine said.
Another reason is that people may be less motivated to get tested, knowing it can take several days or longer to get results. And major delays can make some tests "borderline useless."
Dr. Kent Sepkowitz said he's worried some states may be taking cues from President Donald Trump, who said "when you do more testing, you find more cases," which might make the United States "look bad."
Sepkowitz noted that several states that have touted decreased case counts also had some of the highest test positivity rates -- an indicator that the virus is spreading.
"So even as the rates are worsening, many states have decided to reduce their efforts to find cases," he wrote. "As a result, by looking less, they are finding fewer cases and sure enough, the case numbers are going down."
Shortage of minority volunteers could delay vaccines
While medical experts hope a vaccine will be publicly available in 2021, researchers have encountered a problem: not enough Black and Latino volunteers have signed up for clinical trials.
Of the 350,000 people who've registered online, 10% are Black or Latino, according to Dr. Jim Kublin, executive director of operations for the Covid-19 Prevention Network.
That's not nearly enough, as trial participants are supposed to reflect the population that's affected. Research shows more than half of US Covid-19 cases have been among Black and Latino people.
Much of the distrust stems from a history of medical atrocities against minorities. From 1932 to 1972, Black men were subjects in the Tuskegee syphilis study without their knowledge or consent and were not offered penicillin to treat their disease.
In the 1800s, Dr. J. Marion Sims experimented on slaves and performed surgeries without their consent and without anesthesia.
And from the 1940s until the 1970s, researchers in several studies exposed hundreds of subjects -- mostly Black people -- to dangerous amounts of radiation.
Health officials are trying to gain the trust of minority communities and recruit more diverse volunteers for Phase 3 coronavirus vaccine trials.
So far, phases 1 and 2 have shown the vaccine to be safe. Some volunteers experienced fever and muscle aches, but they felt better after a day or two.
A fast, inexpensive test just got emergency approval
There is some good news: A new saliva test could give Americans a quick way of learning if they have Covid-19 -- and if they need to isolate to help prevent the spread.
Researchers from the Yale School of Public Health created the SalivaDirect test, which received emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration on Saturday.
"If cheap alternatives like SalivaDirect can be implemented across the country, we may finally get a handle on this pandemic, even before a vaccine," said Nathan Grubaugh, a Yale assistant professor of epidemiology.
Unlike some other tests that require specialized supplies, the SalivaDirect test doesn't require a specific swab or collection device. It can also be used with reagents from multiple vendors.
"We simplified the test so that it only costs a couple of dollars for reagents, and we expect that labs will only charge about $10 per sample," Grubaugh said.
Researchers said the new test can produce results in less than three hours, and the accuracy is on par with results from traditional nasal swabbing. They said SalivaDirect tests could become publicly available in the coming weeks.
'We've got to break through to our young people'
Shortly after their classrooms reopened, thousands of students must stay home and quarantine after coronavirus clusters at their schools.
Health experts are urging younger Americans to take precautions seriously, especially after the CDC said Covid-19 cases among children have been "steadily increasing" from March to July.
"Recent evidence suggests that children likely have the same or higher viral loads in their nasopharynx compared with adults and that children can spread the virus effectively in households and camp settings," the CDC said.
Outbreaks have also emerged at colleges and universities.
Oklahoma State University said Sunday that at least 23 sorority members in an off-campus house tested positive for the virus. The entire house is in isolation or quarantine and "will be prohibited from leaving the facility," the university said.
Less than a week after starting classes, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill announced its fourth cluster of coronavirus. The clusters were located at two residence halls, a private apartment complex that serves students and the Sigma Nu fraternity.
The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services defines a cluster as five or more cases in close proximity. As of Monday morning, 177 students are in isolation and 349 are in quarantine, both on and off campus. About 30,000 students attend the university.
The school has shifted to online learning for now.
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143,000 less per day X 12 days equals 1.7 million people.
A frickin diaster.
I was about to make a joke about the 'Pillow Guy' taking over the virus briefings, but as I started to type, I saw a report that Florida doubled its death rate in the last 4 weeks. I hope you and Red are staying in...a lot.
Yeah, it's been bad here, but the last week the or so the number of cases has dropped a lot. I suspect that a lack of testing may be part of the answer.
Positivity rates have declined as the Number of tests have declined. That’s a good thing.
Yes, it's a good thing, but the positivity rate is currently 10.3% at least double of what is needed to start to control the virus.
Per Johns Hopkins, the rolling 7 day rate is 6.7%. It hasn't been above 10% since May.
Texas is at 24%. What's sad is that there has been a notable decrease in testing, and yet the positivity rate keeps rising.
Source
Stats from the FDH. I misread it the 10.3% positivity is for Miami-Dade, the rest of it shows a different stat than JH. but that is for South Florida the hardest-hit region of the state.
Here is more interesting information regarding how the testing and results are diluting the positivity rate.
Here is the latest stats which show an increase in positivity rate statewide and a decrease in testing.
Remember the old adage, less testing fewer cases.
misread it the 10.3% positivity is for Miami-Dade, the rest of it shows a different stat than JH. but that is for South Florida the hardest-hit region of the state.
I was looking at the national trend, which is what I thought you were referring to in the parent post.
What's sad is that there has been a notable decrease in testing, and yet the positivity rate keeps rising.
yes, that's the bad situation.
No problem, there has been a downward trend in the number of cases and positivity rate statewide but the last link I posted above shows that the positivity rate has increased over the last three days.
Testing is at it's lowest level since June.
I'm afraid that this is going to explode in K-12 schools.
The University of NC at Chapel Hill closed it's in-person classes after dozens of students tested positive.
What gets me are all the kids that could catch it and bring it home.
It seems like we are screwed.
It sure seems that way. Florida teachers have sued Governor DeSantis over the opening of schools.
Gee...
It's such a shame that no one could see this coming...
Less testing, fewer cases. Simple as that.
See 2 above.
Not true. It's really not that simple at all. Positivity is going down as well.
not as simple as that.
the mortality rate is the only number that even matters and it will not change regardless of how much they test.
the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention estimates the number of infected people could be 10 times the number of confirmed cases.
Using the current numbers, that means more than 30 million people could have been infected, which would make the infection fatality rate 0.4% -- meaning 99.6% of people survive the virus.
Testing allows us to see the hotspots and hopefully contain the virus in those areas which will help prevent more spreading of the virus more deaths.
Currently, the actual mortality rates are for the US, 3.1%. Florida 1.65% and Texas us 1.85%
BTW .4% would be 1.3 million deaths in the US.
the number of people seeking medical care shows the same thing.
any tests are short term results as people get tested okay and then get infected days later.
are we going to test everyone every week?
No, it doesn't. Asymptomatic people spread the disease without being sick.
With the newest tests available it quite possible that we can do so, it's quick easy, and inexpensive.
Or people that choose to do so can stay in ignorance.
Cheers
very rare at best...
Asymptomatic transmission
An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed case is a person infected with COVID-19 who does not develop symptoms.
Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms.
There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.
easy? to test over 300 million people? weekly?
ya need to work on your math.
try getting just one state to test every person weekly and tell us how that goes.
too funny
The FDA approved this test and it is possible to test numerous people cheaply.
WHO has changed its stance on asymptomatic.
Also presymptomatic spread the virus as well and more on asymptomatic.
Who locked part of this seed and why?
I locked the thread above because of how the conversation was going. When I tried to post an explanation, the entire seed was locked.
This story has some interesting observations, but it sure does take off into some strange propaganda-like territory.
OK, that's interesting and tragic. I guess we shouldn't be surprised to hear it at this point.
Is this really a priority now? It seems to me that other than for people who might be about to have lunch with the president, testing for this purpose is not very useful. I don't think we're going to be isolating populations much at this point. If I were feeling sick, I would go get tested so that treatment could be appropriate and targeted. But just to see if I have it when I feel fine? What for?
Which, I think, is why it's so much more important to get people on board with mask wearing and social distancing whenever they are going to be near people they don't live with.
Where is the data that says people are refusing to sign up because they don't trust medical science, and further, that this distrust is necessarily because of knowledge of some past atrocity? How many people are seriously sitting around brooding over experiments from decades or even centuries ago? With no support, this seems like a made-up theory designed to gin up a little racially charged sanctimonious outrage for - I don't know - clicks, maybe? A little virtue signaling?
Maybe people just haven't heard about it or have a perfectly ordinary fear of being experimented on. Maybe they aren't offering enough money.
What is the thinking here? That bad shit never happens to white people in medical experiments? Only black people have reason to be afraid of side effects? This is such a weird turn for this story.
Thread #1 has been deleted because of violations going both ways. All comments that had received tickets have had those tickets reversed. Please resume CIVIL discussion.
The slowdown in testing is going to come back and bite Florida in the ass.
The number of tests on new people Sunday was 20,248 with 2678 positive tests for a positivity rate of 13.2%
20,248 tests in a state with a population of 21.5 million. WTH!!!
There has been a testing site about a mile from my house for the last few months. I have noticed a pretty big decrease in the amount of people in line.
I know that one testing site in our area is no longer there.
We went through this before and got slammed. Sadly I see this happening again JaneDoe.
That’s what will probably happen to this one. Eventually it will get closed down because so few people are going to it.
Well, the seeded article certainly isn't very informative. It's nothing more than fear mongering.
We know that severe weather has interfered with testing. Heat waves and severe storms has forced closure of testing sites. East coast states shut down testing sites in preparation for hurricane Isaias. So, a drop in national testing shouldn't be surprising. The article is using averages to hide specific circumstances in order to present a biased narrative.
The article states that 15 states performed fewer tests. You know, testing is voluntary. The article doesn't indicate if there has been a decrease in the number of people seeking tests. In the case of Minnesota, the state ramped up testing following the protests and there was a spike in the number of people seeking testing. But the protests have receded and so has the number of people seeking testing. I'm not aware of any state that has mandated everyone be tested so the number of people voluntarily seeking testing really is an important factor.
Voluntary testing is driven by the number of people who fear they have been exposed to the virus or fear they have been infected. A decrease in the number of people voluntarily seeking testing indicates the population may feel safer. Or the population may feel that testing doesn't do anything that helps. So far, the reports of testing results (as in this article) has been utilized to spread fear which can be as problematic as the virus itself.
Why should a shortage of minority volunteers for Phase 3 vaccine trials delay approval of a vaccine? The cited excuses of historical medical atrocities against minorities hides that fact that those atrocities were based upon the idea that minorities are biologically different. Are minorities biologically different than other people? Trotting out all the politically correct excuses can't justify delaying approval of vaccines without asserting that minorities are biologically different. If trials of vaccines depend upon quotas of minority participants then political correctness will be the cause of many more deaths. The lack of volunteers could also indicate that the minority population may avoid getting vaccinated so we may need to consider isolation and shutting down the minority portion of the economy. The narrative promoted by the article opens a can of worms that will be used politically to obstruct progress in responding to the pandemic. In this case, political correctness can be deadly.
A big part of the problem is that we just do not know enough. Scientists are gathering data all the time, but it appears that the topic is something of a moving target. A virus mutates....
Why do Covid fatalities remain low when infection numbers are rising?
While some scientists believe the virus has become less deadly, others look at the factors that suggest otherwise
Are Covid-19 death rates decreasing?
Most statistics indicate that although cases of Covid-19 are rising in many parts of Europe and the United States, the number of deaths and cases of severe complications remain relatively low. For example, patients on ventilators have dropped from 3,000 at the epidemic’s peak in Britain to 70. At the same time, the number of cases in the UK have begun to rise in many areas.
Some researchers believe that social distancing has led to smaller amounts of the virus being transmitted.
Bradley Collyer/PA
Why lies behind this trend?
Doctors are unsure exactly what is going on. Some suggest that medical interventions are more successful at treating those who suffer complications from the disease. For example, the drug dexamethasone was recently shown to improve survival rates among patients requiring ventilation. Others argue that different factors are involved. One suggestion is that Covid-19 is now becoming a disease of younger people who are less likely to die or suffer serious complications.
Does that indicate that the worst may be over?
No. Other researchers point to the situation in the US where there was a recent spike in cases among people in their 20s and 30s – but which was then followed by a spike in cases in older people who picked up the disease from younger people. As a result, there has been a jump in deaths. A similar pattern could occur in Europe and in the UK, possibly in a couple of weeks, some scientists warn.
Is the Covid-19 virus becoming less deadly?
This idea is supported by some scientists. They point to the fact that most viruses tend to lose their most lethal attributes because they gain nothing from killing off their hosts. This could be happening with the Covid-19 virus, they say. Other researchers disagree, saying such a process is unlikely to be happening this quickly. One alternative suggestion is that infectious doses of the Covid-19 virus, transmitted from one person to another, may be getting smaller thanks to social distancing. Lower doses would then be easier for our immune systems to tackle, so death rates would drop.
In the end, these issues remain unresolved and will require many more months, if not years of research, to work out, scientists warn.
I don't think most people have yet integrated the idea that Covid-19 may be around... forever...
We don't know how to get rid of the common cold. We live with it.
We don't know how to get rid of the flu. We live with it.
Covid-19 may be the same thing.
That's very likely, since these virus are all interrelated biologically.
We have no idea of the long term effects of the virus, in fact, although we are gaining knowledge there is a vast ''blank spot'' in our overall knowledge of this virus.