Cook Political Report shifts Ohio, Iowa to 'toss up' in presidential race
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the presidential race in Ohio and Iowa to a “toss up” on Tuesday from lean Republican, citing recent polls showing a tightening race between President Trump and Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden .
The independent online newsletter had moved the race in both states to "lean Republican" from "likely Republican" in mid-June, but on Tuesday said it decided to shift the race to a toss up as recent polls show a tight race.
Ohio and Iowa, two states Trump carried in 2016, are more critical for Trump to win than for Biden. Biden doesn't necessarily need to carry either state to reach 270 electoral votes, but Trump likely can't win without either state, Cook noted.
In Iowa, Cook highlighted three public polls that came out in recent weeks that showed a tight race between the candidates. The Des Moines Register survey found voters deadlocked a 47 percent a piece for each candidate, while a poll from The New York Times and Siena College found 45 percent backing Biden and 42 percent supporting Trump. A Monmouth University poll found Trump leading by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.
In Ohio, Cook noted a September Fox News poll that found Trump slipping further behind Biden than he had been in the summer. The recent poll found Trump trailing by 5 points, 45 percent to 50 percent, while a poll from May-early June found the president trialing the Democrat by just 2 points, 43 percent to 45 percent.
Similarly, Quinnipiac surveys found Trump not gaining ground in Ohio. A Quinnipiac survey from September found Biden with a 1-point lead, 48 percent to 47 percent. A Quinnipiac survey from mid-June found a similarly tight race with Biden leading by 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent.
Ohio and Iowa are now two of five states Cook ranks as a toss up in the presidential race, joining North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
Four other states widely seen as swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania, are rated lean Democrat on Cook.
It counts states totaling 290 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to win, as rated either solid Democrat, likely Democrat or leaning Democrat.
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47% a piece......That is close!
What's happening?
Trump is imploding. That is what is happening. All Biden has to do is maintain his composure to win...
Oh, I see.....as the race tightens, he is "imploding?" I can't help remember what a pundit said during the 2016 election, when Trump wasn't close in most of the polling. She said look at all those people going to his rallies - if those people go out and vote, he's going to win! Sometimes we simply need to believe our own eyes and ears.
Except, the race is not tightening! Did you even read the article? Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton and this is not 2016. Biden leads by 8-10% not 3-4% and he is particularly strong in the swing states. All of the Electoral College maps show Biden way over the top without Ohio or Iowa, or even Florida! Wake Up!
Right now there a 1 in 4 chance of Trump again winning the EC without winning the majority. There is a 1 in 100 change that Trump wins the EC & the majority.
Really? Shall I wait for Nate Silver to do another 180 degree turn on election night?
Based on the seed you posted, Trump is losing.
It had been in the margin of error, now a toss up.
The trending is all away from Trump and in Biden's favor.
Within the margin of error in Ohio and Iowa...
Those are states Biden does not need to win!
We should not discount any state. The bigger the Electoral College victory for Biden, the better. If Biden wins Iowa, that could help eliminate that horrible Joni Ernst. We want a Red, White and Blue Tsunami!
Correct. Trump needs them.
I'm looking at the Iowa survey and would say that the LV Biden support is "softer" that the support for Trump. Take a look at the question:
Still, Trump carried Iowa by almost 10 points in 2016.
Do you recall what the polls said about Iowa before the 2016 election?
Trump +3.0.
That was from Nov 1, 2016 when reality struck.
Try mid September of 2016.
Yes, I do know what the corresponding Des Moines Iowa Register Polls were for Trump in 2016.
One had Trump at +7 while one had him at +4 with 3.5 to 3.9 margins of error. Call it an average of +5.5.
Oh - there appears to be a big difference in the 3rd party choices this time - only about half as many are indicating a 3rd party choice as did in 2016. In 2016 there were then quite a few defections from the Libertarian party to Trump.
Hang your hat on polls from 2016 if you want, but this is 2020, and Biden is on the ballot. Four years and two different dem candidates that voters see as very different. That and Trump has a record that's going to be hung around his neck.
One thing hasn't changed - those crowds that trump draws!
That year began with an NBC-Marist poll showing Hillary Clinton with an 8 point lead in Ohio and nobody including me thought Trump had a shot!
Yes, we have all noticed that it's the same group of cultists that follow Trump around the country and show up to worship him at every rally. Always the same people. Never changes.
And he won by a touch under 10%. So what does that say?
I have made no assertion that Biden will carry Iowa - to the contrary I have pointed out that his support is "softer" than Trump's even with the 47-47 poll. Still Trump should be polling better if he is looking for a win in other states.
While I find it unlikely that Trump will lose Iowa; will he carry it by 10 points this time?
Very unlikely.
They ride on Air Force One, don't ya know/S
I doubt it as well. It is because of what the coronavirus did to the economy that we are even having this conversation.
Air Force One? NEVER!!! We know Trump wouldn't get anywhere near "those disgusting people", as he calls his supporters.
"Air Force One? NEVER!!! We know Trump wouldn't get anywhere near "those disgusting people", as he calls his supporters."
Also suckers and losers
What's happening?
It should be obvious......
But the Poll was conducted before the Times story:
"In Iowa, Cook highlighted three public polls that came out in recent weeks that showed a tight race between the candidates."
Suburban women are seeing the attack on healthcare and their right to choose with the SCOTUS nomination...
Again, the Poll was conducted before Barrett was named. Beyond that, how do you think suburban "women" will feel about a 48 year old mother of 7 being savaged???
What makes you think they are going to go after the nominee Vic? They have no reason to.
What the dems are going to do is shove the rank hypocrisy regarding the nomination up the asses of the republicans that think this is a good idea 45 days prior to an election. The dems are also going to make this a show about a woman's right to choose, and the loss of healthcare. The nominee will be confirmed and there is little the dems can do about it. But they are going to make Trump and the GOP senators pay for it at the ballot box.
My prediction.... Nomonee will be confirmed AFTER the election. GOP will loose the WH and the Senate. Dems will take over and expand the bench to 11, possibly 12 judges in 2021.
As far as the polls being taken prior to the times story..... then there is more bad news for Trump and the GOP coming down the road. From what I saw, Texas has moved to toss-up as well.
They have already begun. They know it's bad business but you know, they have that nasty base!
Texas has moved to toss-up as well.
LMAO! I needed that!
Texas toss-up: Poll shows Biden, Trump tied again
July 22nd.................hahaha
Well done!
Thanks for the follow-up Pat... From Fox no less....!
Lets just go vote!
Kansans think that Bob Dole' Birthday on 22JUL23 is no laughing matter......and if my memory serves me, 22JUL is also when the battle of Atlanta was initiated in the Civil War..... Again, nothing to laugh at.
Texas is competitive. Within the margin of error.
Also pissed about him giving the already wealthy a tax cut, which they did not need.
THe Trump team has probably lowered expectations to far, to the point where if Biden is able to avoid falling down or visibly losing control of his bowels the media will declare him a winner because Biden's lies will be excused as gaffes. As long as Biden doesn't appear worse than Mueller, he'll exceed expectations and be certified the winner by the media.
Though going by the liveblogging of the Mueller hearing on this site, if Biden soils himself, uses a racial slur and falls asleep in the middle , many of the left on here will declare him the winner and praise how sharp and engaged he was as he is napping.
.
Biden would not have got the strong endorsements of all the other Democratic candidates if he was not if good shape to defeat Trump and run the country!
Tonight Joe will put all that bullshit to rest for good.
Biden got those endorsements when the primary came down to him and a Socialist, which many democrats felt had zero chance in a general election. Thus they bought Biden.
Of course he would. He could be literally brain dead and Democrats would happily endorse him and lie about his condition until it was time to swear him in.
Biden is now apparently demanding two breaks during the debate.
He's also backing out of an agreement to be checked for earpieces or electronic devices. Why would he possibly be afraid of that? I know he reads teleprompter scripts during friendly MSM media interviews, but this is really sad.
If he get's through tonight without embarrassing himself to bad, he'll cancel the second two debates. These are not the actions of a man confident in his ability to stay upright and coherent.
If I were Biden, I would absolutely take measures to shore up my weaknesses. To me that is the smart thing to do. And as a voter, such actions are not a negative; they indicate awareness and foresight. Everyone has strengths and weaknesses.
The PotUS, in terms of daily job, focuses more on making decisions than on engaging in real-time debate. So while being able to gracefully engage the press, etc. are good attributes, the more important factor is the quality of the decisions made and the representation of the USA globally.
This year, we will not elect a PotUS who is the brightest in his class. We are choosing between two less-than-spectacular choices. Biden's job is to convince the electorate that he is up to the job of PotUS; not that he is skilled in dealing with a serial liar asshole on stage. Should he fail to assuage the cognitive concerns, he will ipso facto hand the election to Trump.
So you believe if Biden wears an earpiece during the debate and parrots what his advisors tell him To say, voters will reward him for that?
Better an elder statesman than no statesman!
Did I write that Sean? What is the point of pretending to not understand my point and instead toss out an extreme strawman?
.....vs. the Trump supporters that don't give a damn about the 205,000 Americans dead from Covid, of which 168,000 deaths are due to Trump's lack of leadership that he is so happy with? That kind of reward Sean?
pitiful. not biden, your comments.
Because I wrote that Biden wants refuses to be tested for an earpiece and wants breaks every thirty minutes as the basis for the opinion that those actions "are not the actions of a man confident in his ability to stay upright and coherent." that you quoted and said he would be rewarded by voters for shoring up his weaknesses.
I can't read your mind. I assumed you were addressing what I wrote, since you quoted it.
I can't even imagine how you can justify that. Some sort of witches cause crop failure "logic" I'm sure.
No kidding. How about you read what I actually write then? You ignored my actual words and simply invented an extreme rebuttal to your comments and then attributed it to me.
If you cannot formulate an effective rebuttal / comment, moving to obvious strawman arguments is not a good alternative.
You responded to a post about needing breaks and wearing an earpiece. I assumed you were on topic and responding to my post. My bad for not realizing your post bore no relation to the one it was purporting to respond to.
Trump side asked Wallace not to mention the number of people who have died from covid. Wallace declined.
I know the math will be hard for you, so feel free to ask for help, but those are the numbers when you compare Germany's response to that of Trump adjusted for population difference.
Your post alleged that Biden would take measures (e.g. an earpiece) to help ensure he did not screw up. My post stated that taking measures in general is smart. Wearing an earpiece in and of itself would be smart (if allowed).
Your rebuttal then introduced this specific nonsense:
You inserted extreme specifics and attributed them to me. Nowhere did I even imply that it would be good for Biden to parrot what his advisors say. There are myriad uses for an earpiece. The most obvious would be to serve as a fact source in real time. The most cynical would be to presume Biden would be nothing more than a puppet who mindlessly repeats words from handlers.
I wrote nothing that even comes close to the ridiculous strawman you tried to attribute to me.
As far as tonight's debate goes it is Biden who has the most to lose. Tomorrow the media declares him the inner no matter what happens tonight.
I for one do not care what the MSM declares. I plan to watch the debate to help improve my personal assessment of Biden and to try to gauge how his performance might impact the election.
I do not expect any surprises from Trump; he will be his typical self. Biden is the one to watch.
Agreed